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Predictions graded

Andre Ilagan #243United States2Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia0

Sets 6-2 · 7-6Thu 1 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndre Ilagan · 199 places

Andre Ilagan

United States

The American is 25 and left-handed. ITF listed him at No. 248 on 20 July 2026; structured match data lists No. 243. His recorded professional singles results are predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #243
Peak ranking: #248 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 19:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Andre Ilagan is the higher-ranked and fresher player, but Marat Sharipov arrives on an eight-match winning run and has won 12 of 13 hard-court matches in this stretch.

Sharipov is the likely winner, though four matches in four days leaves that less certain. At 1.33 he is not worth backing, nor are his 1.44 prices for the first and second sets; the one quoted price that offers anything is Ilagan to win 2-1 at 5.75.

Context

A player arriving on eight consecutive wins is the hardest current form in this part of the draw, and the run was built on the same hard courts as Jingshan. It matters because it is the strongest available evidence that Sharipov's level sits above his No. 238 ranking at the moment he meets a higher-ranked opponent. The sequence includes a comeback win from a set down against a top-125 player, so it is not simply a run of wins over low-ranked opposition. The limitation is that most of the run came at Challenger level and two of the eight matches were qualifying rounds, so the streak does not by itself show he is the better player in this specific matchup.
- Marat Sharipov has won eight matches in a row, the last of them a 3-6 6-3 6-1 first-round win at Jingshan over Dalibor Svrcina, and he faces Andre Ilagan in the second round.
- Svrcina was ranked 124 before the tournament, the highest-ranked opponent Sharipov has beaten during the run.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 19:24 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe Jingshan 2026 match centre, Ilagan vs Sharipovwww.lequipe.fr · 30 Sep 2026
A first Challenger title changes how Sharipov's season reads: he is not only a qualifier here but a tournament winner from the previous week, on the same surface and in the same country. That gives this second-round match a clear reference point for his current level, since the title came only eleven days earlier. It also explains why a player ranked 238 arrives with more momentum than his ranking suggests. The counterweight is the draw he beat: Kotov was ranked outside the top 175, so the title is a genuine but modest scalp rather than a win over a top-100 opponent.
- Marat Sharipov won the Guangzhou Challenger final 6-0 6-3 against Pavel Kotov, his first Challenger title.
- Sharipov entered Jingshan at No. 238 and had to come through qualifying, taking the qualifying win over Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong 6-2 6-3 before beating Svrcina in the first round.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 19:24 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe Jingshan 2026 match centre, Ilagan vs Sharipovwww.lequipe.fr · 30 Sep 2026
This is the clearest asymmetry in the fixture: Sharipov will be playing his fourth match in four days at Jingshan, whereas Ilagan arrives off a straight-sets win and a day without a match. Qualifying rounds for a player who has also just won a title in Guangzhou add cumulative workload that a seeded main-draw player does not carry. It matters because a tight or long second round would be his fourth consecutive competitive outing in the same week. There is a limit to the reading, though: all three of Sharipov's wins were completed without a stoppage, so there is no evidence of physical trouble, only of a heavier schedule.
- Marat Sharipov played Jingshan qualifying on 28 and, beating Naoya Honda 7-6 6-2 and Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong 6-2 6-3, then beat Dalibor Svrcina 3-6 6-3 6-1 .
- Andre Ilagan played a single match in that period, beating Matthew Dellavedova 6-4 6-3 .
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 19:24 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe Jingshan 2026 match centre, Ilagan vs Sharipovwww.lequipe.fr · 30 Sep 2026
Sharipov's second sets have been the phase where he has looked most secure on hard courts this autumn.
Whether this second round reaches a second set matters, because Sharipov has closed out that set in all 13 hard-court matches in the sample while Ilagan has won nine of his 15. The record covers only the current hard-court swing, so it describes present form rather than a settled long-term pattern.
- Sharipov won all 13 second sets in his 13 hard-court matches between 7 September and 30 September 2026.
- He averaged 6.31 games won and 3.77 games lost in those second sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Marat Sharipov

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75.2%

−7.2ppshort

Sharipov holds a clear server and form advantage on this surface, having won 12 of 13 hard-court matches and eight straight, including a straight-sets win over a higher-ranked opponent here.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Marat Sharipov

1.44fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 69.4%

−3.4ppshort

Sharipov's unbroken second-set record is the strongest single pattern in the evidence for this match.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Marat Sharipov

1.44fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 69.4%

−8.4ppshort

Sharipov's first-set record is strong and Ilagan has started slowly in more than half of his recent hard-court matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Sharipov holds a clear server and form advantage on this surface, having won 12 of 13 hard-court matches and eight straight, including a straight-sets win over a higher-ranked opponent here.
- Sharipov is 12-1 on hard in his last 15-match window, winning 83.3% of sets and 60.1% of games on the surface
- Sharipov has won eight matches in a row and took the Guangzhou Challenger title, beating No. 124 Svrcina in Jingshan round one
- Ilagan is 9-6 on hard with 51% games won and 68.7% first-serve points won, well below Sharipov's 82.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarat SharipovEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set game averages sit around this line, with tiebreaks appearing in a meaningful share of their matches.
- Ilagan's first sets average 9.6 games on hard
- Sharipov's first sets average 10.23 games on hard
- Sharipov's first set has featured three tiebreaks in 13 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second-set game averages exceed the line, and Ilagan's second sets have frequently gone deep.
- Ilagan's second sets average 10.47 games on hard
- Sharipov's second sets average 10.08 games on hard
- Ilagan has played five second-set tiebreaks in his last 15 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches sit around or above this game line, and Ilagan's close sets push toward a longer total.
- Ilagan's hard-court matches average 24.2 games
- Sharipov's hard-court matches average 23.15 games
- Seven of Ilagan's last 15 hard-court matches included a tiebreak
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Sharipov's unbroken second-set record is the strongest single pattern in the evidence for this match.
- Sharipov has won all 13 second sets on hard in the window
- Sharipov averages 6.31 games won against 3.77 lost in second sets
- Ilagan has won nine of 15 second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMarat SharipovEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Sharipov's first-set record is strong and Ilagan has started slowly in more than half of his recent hard-court matches.
- Sharipov has won nine of 13 first sets on hard
- Sharipov averages 5.77 games won and 4.46 lost in first sets
- Ilagan has lost eight of 15 first sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMarat SharipovEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's dominant scoring patterns have produced mostly two-set matches, pulling the totals toward a short contest.
- Nine of Sharipov's 13 hard-court matches finished in two sets
- Ilagan's hard-court matches average 2.4 sets
- Sharipov's straight-set rate stands at 2-0 in 9 of 13
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's serve dominates the ace count, and Ilagan's own average adds to the combined total.
- Sharipov averages 12.5 aces per match on hard over 13 matches
- Ilagan averages 5.5 aces per match on hard over 15 matches
- Sharipov has hit 162 aces in his last 13 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 16.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates on this surface, keeping the combined figure modest.
- Ilagan averages 2.3 double faults per match on hard
- Sharipov averages 1.5 double faults per match on hard
- Sharipov has served 20 double faults across 13 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have reached tiebreaks in roughly half of their recent hard-court matches.
- Seven of Ilagan's last 15 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Six of Sharipov's 13 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak
- Ilagan has played five second-set tiebreaks in that window
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Andre Ilagan

9W 6L

6-4 6-3#278Matthew Dellavedova 7-6(4) 7-6(5)#281Petr Bar Biryukov

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(3)#599Bryce Nakashima

6-1 6-3#87Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 6-4#202Tristan Boyer

6-2 7-6(6)#125Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-4#197Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 2-6 6-1#153Tristan Schoolkate

2-6 6-4 6-3#333Andres Martin

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#203Edas Butvilas

6-4 6-4#437Spencer Johnson

7-6(5) 6-4#409Sebastian Gorzny

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 6-4#206Andres Andrade

6-3 7-6(2)#85Marcos Giron

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

13W 2L

3-6 6-3 6-1#124Dalibor Svrcina 6-2 6-3#419Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(11) 6-2#601Naoya Honda

6-0 6-3#182Pavel Kotov 7-5 6-3#281Petr Bar Biryukov 7-6(4) 6-3#192Elias Ymer

4-6 7-6(6) 6-3#125Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-3#692Thomas Fancutt

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#233Ilya Ivashka

6-3 7-5#182Pavel Kotov

6-4 6-4#428Omar Jasika

7-5 7-6(5)#172Taro Daniel

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#402Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#305Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#605Alexander Vasilev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AIAndre IlaganIlagan

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)M(

Marat Sharipov (RUS) carries the stronger recent form — Andre Ilagan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.2%+2.8pp62.4%

1st Serve Won68.7%+13.1pp81.8%

2nd Serve Won55.4%+1.8pp53.6%

Aces / Match5.5+5.511.0

Double Faults / Match2.30.6 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.7%+2.8pp39.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.1%+3.6pp40.7%

Break Pts Saved64.0%+3.3pp67.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.5%+4.2pp54.7%

Serve · 2–3

65.2%1st Serve In+2.8pp62.4%

68.7%1st Serve Won+13.1pp81.8%

55.4%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp53.6%

5.5Aces / Match+5.511.0

2.3Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

36.7%Return Pts Won+2.8pp39.5%

Pressure · 0–2

37.1%Break Pts Converted+3.6pp40.7%

64.0%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp67.3%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won+4.2pp54.7%

Andre Ilagan

Marat Sharipov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Andre Ilagan 2-1

Marat Sharipov

Marat Sharipov

Marat Sharipov

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Andre Ilagan

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

Stat Battle