ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Elias Ymer #212Sweden0Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Fri 18 Sept 2026, 09:50 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElias Ymer · 230 places

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Former world No. 105. Public results indexed for 2026 show retirements in March, but no current-tournament or last-30-days fitness report was found.

Current ranking: #212
Peak ranking: #105
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Sharipov's dominant hard-court form (6-1, 12 aces/match, 82.2% first-serve points won) and superior games-won rate give him a clear edge over Ymer, who sits at 47.1% games won and a weak 33% return points won.

The match-winner price of 1.60 offers a 5.5-point value edge, with over 12.5 aces and under 5.5 double faults as supporting leans, while Ymer's tendency toward tight three-setters keeps confidence at medium.

Context

Sharipov, 24, is ranked 364 and has spent most of 2026 on hard courts, where he has a 19-8 season record. Ymer, 30, is ranked 197 and has played 22 hard-court matches this year, winning 11.
Sharipov's 6-1 hard-court record in the last 15 includes wins over Lloyd Harris and Taro Daniel, both ranked inside the top 160. Ymer's 4-6 hard-court record in the same window includes losses to players ranked 168, 170 and 529. The recent results point one way, though Ymer's higher ranking and longer career at this level mean the gap is not guaranteed to hold over three sets.
- Sharipov last-15 hard-court record: 6-1 (7 matches tracked).
- Ymer last-15 hard-court record: 4-6 (10 matches tracked).
- Sharipov beat Lloyd Harris (No. 138) and Taro Daniel (No. 160) in his last two Guangzhou matches.
- Ymer lost to Daniil Glinka (No. 170) and Federico Cina (No. 168) in August hard-court events.
Sharipov, 188cm, has averaged 7.5 aces per match across the last 15, rising to 12 per match on hard courts. Ymer, 185cm, has averaged 6.1 aces per match overall and 5.8 on hard courts.
Sharipov's first-serve points won (79.7%) and hard-court first-serve points won (82.2%) are both well above Ymer's overall 69.8% and hard-court 68.4%. Sharipov also saves break points at a similar rate (59.6% vs 60.4%), so the serve gap is mostly about how often he finishes the point when the first serve lands. Ymer's return points won on hard courts (34.9%) is slightly below Sharipov's overall 40.1%, adding pressure on Ymer to convert the few chances he creates.
- Sharipov last-15 first-serve points won: 79.7% (561 serves tracked).
- Ymer last-15 first-serve points won: 69.8% (658 serves tracked).
- Sharipov hard-court aces per match: 12.0 (7 matches tracked).
- Ymer hard-court aces per match: 5.8 (10 matches tracked).
Ymer, 35, is the home player in this Guangzhou quarterfinal and sits at ATP No. 197. He retired from his 1 September Zhangjiagang first-round match after collapsing twice and receiving on-court treatment.
Follow-up assessment found heat exhaustion with no serious consequences, and he stayed on the China swing. That makes the episode a recent recovery note rather than a known current restriction, and his completed matches since limit how much it should shape expectations here.
- The Zhangjiagang incident occurred on 1 September, when Ymer retired after two collapses and an on-court medical timeout.
- Follow-up assessment described heat exhaustion, hospital observation and no serious consequence before his return to the tournament swing.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z against Yu Hsiou Hsu ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ReportedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 03:13 · Europe/BucharestSwedish Tennis Star Forces To Retire After Collapsing Twice On Courtregiaradio.net · 1 Sep 2026Elias Ymer crolla due volte in campo in Cina: il ricovero e la diagnosimagazine.tennistalker.it · 5 Sep 2026
Ymer, 30, is a former top-150 player who has dealt with a heavy match load across 2026, playing 22 hard-court matches before this event. He retired during a second-round match against Yu Hsiou Hsu on September 1 while trailing 7-6(4) 5-5.
Ymer has since completed two full matches in Guangzhou, winning in straight sets and in three sets, with no sign of a recurring issue in the scores. The retirement is a recent physical event, but the evidence does not show it is still affecting him. It is a minor note rather than a clear fitness concern for this quarter-final.
- Ymer retired on September 1, 2026, against Yu Hsiou Hsu at 7-6(4) 5-5.
- Ymer won two matches in Guangzhou on September 14 and 16, both completed without retirement.
- No current injury or withdrawal report appears in the supplied intel.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Sharipov's far stronger recent hard-court form and serve structure (82.2% first-serve points won, 12 aces/match) against Ymer's sub-50% games-won window gives the away player the clear edge.
- Sharipov last-15 overall: 11-4 (73.3%) with 57.5% games won and 53.6% total points won (15 matches tracked).
- Sharipov hard-court last-15 split: 6-1 (85.7%), 12.0 aces/match, 82.2% first-serve points won (7 matches tracked).
- Ymer last-15 overall: 6-9 (40%), 47.1% games won, 33.0% return points won (15 matches tracked).
- Ymer hard-court last-15: 4-6, 48.0% games won, 34.9% return points won (10 matches tracked).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches run long with frequent tiebreaks and three-setters, supporting a total-games line above 21.5.
- Ymer last-15 average match duration 108.4 minutes; hard-court 115.5 minutes (10 matches tracked).
- Sharipov last-15 average duration 100.3 minutes; hard-court 109.7 minutes (7 matches tracked).
- Ymer recent matches include 7-6(6) 6-4, 5-7 7-5 6-3 and 3-6 6-3 7-6(9) — multiple long, tight sets.
- Sharipov recent: 4-6 7-6(6) 6-3 and 6-4 3-6 7-6(7) — three-setters with tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's superior games-won percentage and hard-court dominance give him a solid chance to cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Sharipov last-15 games won: 57.5% (188 of 327) vs Ymer 47.1% (162 of 344).
- Sharipov hard-court games won: 57.2% (103 of 180) vs Ymer 48.0% (110 of 229).
- Sharipov last-15 hard record 6-1; Ymer 4-6.
- Sharipov's recent straight-set wins were by margins of 7, 5 and 4 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMarat Sharipov (RUS) -3.5Estimated chance56%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's strong opening-set conversion and dominant hard-court set rate make him the more likely set-1 winner, though Ymer's competitive recent scores keep this at medium confidence.
- Sharipov career firstSetWinConversion 90% vs Ymer 83%.
- Sharipov last-15 hard: 13 of 17 sets won (76.5%) across 7 matches.
- Ymer last-15 hard: 9 of 21 sets won (42.9%) across 10 matches.
- Sharipov opened with a 4-6 first set vs Lloyd Harris on 2026-09-16 but still won in three.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's strong hard-court set rate and better second-serve numbers make him the more likely set-2 winner.
- Sharipov last-15 hard: 13 of 17 sets won (76.5%) across 7 matches.
- Sharipov second-serve points won on hard: 55.0% (104 of 189).
- Ymer last-15 hard: 9 of 21 sets won (42.9%) across 10 matches.
- Ymer second-serve points won on hard: 52.5% (165 of 314).
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance63%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent double-fault rates are modest, and Sharipov's hard-court rate is especially low, favoring an under on 5.5.
- Sharipov last-15 double faults: 2.3 per match (34 in 15 matches tracked).
- Sharipov hard-court double faults: 1.0 per match (7 in 7 matches tracked).
- Ymer last-15 double faults: 2.7 per match (40 in 15 matches tracked).
- Ymer hard-court double faults: 2.9 per match (29 in 10 matches tracked).
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's high hard-court ace rate combined with Ymer's steady ace contribution supports an over on total aces.
- Sharipov last-15 hard-court aces: 12.0 per match (84 aces in 7 matches tracked).
- Sharipov last-15 overall aces: 7.5 per match (113 in 15 matches tracked).
- Ymer last-15 overall aces: 6.1 per match (91 in 15 matches tracked).
- Ymer hard-court aces: 5.8 per match (58 in 10 matches tracked).
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreak sets in both players' recent form makes at least one tiebreak in the match likely.
- Ymer's recent matches include 7-6(6), 7-6(9), 7-6(4), 7-6(5) and 7-6(8) set scores.
- Sharipov's recent matches include 7-6(6), 7-6(7), 7-6(5) and 6-7(8) set scores.
- Ymer career tiebreak win rate 47%; Sharipov 54%.
- Both players' recent hard-court matches frequently reach tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Elias Ymer

6W 9L

7-6(6) 6-4#398Luca Castelnuovo 5-7 7-5 6-3#416Semen Pankin

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#221Pavel Kotov

7-6(4) 5-5 ret.#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-2 7-6(5)#133Cristian Garin

6-4 6-3#261Franco Roncadelli

6-4 6-3#170Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-4#498Paul Jubb

6-3 7-5#168Federico Cina

6-0 7-6(5)#529Trevor Svajda

6-4 6-1#198Timofey Skatov

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#131Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#226Henry Searle

6-4 6-3#33Ugo Humbert

6-4 7-6(3)#415Niels Visker

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

11W 4L

4-6 7-6(6) 6-3#138Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-3#699Thomas Fancutt

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#230Ilya Ivashka 6-3 7-5#221Pavel Kotov 6-4 6-4#396Omar Jasika

7-5 7-6(5)#160Taro Daniel

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#406Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#307Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#615Alexander Vasilev

6-3 6-3#659Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-2—Franco Ariel Vazquez

6-4 3-6 6-3#838Aaron Funk

7-6(3) 6-3#379Andrej Martin

6-1 3-1 ret.#886Tomas Lanik

6-3 6-4—Patrick Jozwicki

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EYElias YmerYmer

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)M(

Marat Sharipov (RUS) carries the stronger recent form — Elias Ymer's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.3%—59.4%

1st Serve Won69.8%+9.9pp79.7%

2nd Serve Won51.3%+1.4pp52.7%

Aces / Match6.1+1.47.5

Double Faults / Match2.70.4 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.0%+7.1pp40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.4%+4.1pp40.5%

Break Pts Saved60.4%+0.8pp59.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.9%+5.7pp53.6%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

59.3%1st Serve In—59.4%

69.8%1st Serve Won+9.9pp79.7%

51.3%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp52.7%

6.1Aces / Match+1.47.5

2.7Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

33.0%Return Pts Won+7.1pp40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

36.4%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp40.5%

60.4%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp59.6%

Points · 0–1

47.9%Total Pts Won+5.7pp53.6%