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Predictions graded

Matthew Dellavedova #299Australia0Andre Ilagan #243United States2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Tue 29 Sept 2026, 08:31 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndre Ilagan · 56 places

Matthew Dellavedova

Australia

Dellavedova, ranked No. 299 in the supplied match data, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand. Reliable public age, career-high and preferred-surface information could not be verified.

Current ranking: #299
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Andre Ilagan

United States

The American is 25 and left-handed. ITF listed him at No. 248 on 20 July 2026; structured match data lists No. 243. His recorded professional singles results are predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #243
Peak ranking: #248 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 05:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilagan is the higher-ranked player and has won both completed meetings in straight sets, but Dellavedova owns seven M15 hard-court titles in 2026 and won the opening set of his latest match before losing.

Ilagan in straight sets is the likeliest shape. No price on offer pays for the risk: Ilagan to win at 1.44, to take either set at 1.50 and 2-0 at 2.10 all ask more than his case supports, and Dellavedova at 2.60 is no better.

Context

The 14 March 2026 Maanshan meeting is the most recent reference point, and its shape is the telling part: Dellavedova held a 7-6(3) first set before Ilagan took the second 6-1. That pattern matters because Dellavedova can stay level early before the margin widens, and the January Nonthaburi meeting was one-sided at 6-3 6-0. The limit is the tier — both meetings came at M15 level on Asian hard courts, below the Challenger level where Ilagan now competes more regularly, so they set a baseline rather than a current guide.
- Ilagan beat Dellavedova 6-3 6-0 at Nonthaburi 2 on 11 January 2026
- Ilagan beat Dellavedova 7-6(3) 6-1 at M15 Maanshan 2 on 14 March 2026
- The completed series stands at 2-0 to Ilagan
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 05:02 · Europe/BucharestPredictionistpredictionist.com · 28 Sep 2026
Ilagan is at a career-best No. 184, having spent the first half of 2026 outside the top 240. The rise makes him the higher-ranked player here and the one with more Challenger-level match experience through the season. His September results were mixed, though — a three-set loss to Bryce Nakashima and a straight-set defeat by Petr Bar Biryukov — so the ranking reflects season-long progress rather than current dominance.
- Career-best ranking of No. 184
- Was outside the top 240 earlier in 2026
- Enters this match as the higher-ranked player
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 05:02 · Europe/BucharestITFwww.itftennis.com · 28 Sep 2026
Dellavedova has been a repeat winner at M15 level through 2026, with four of the seven titles coming at Maanshan. Those results account for a 9-6 recent hard-court record and give him match sharpness, yet his ranking still sits about 90 places below Ilagan's. The tier is the limit: none of the seven titles came at Challenger level, so the wins do not yet translate against opponents of Ilagan's current standing.
- Seven singles titles in 2026
- All seven were M15 events on hard courts
- Four of them came at Maanshan
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 05:02 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.com · 28 Sep 2026
Ilagan came through a first-round match at US Open qualifying, beating an opponent ranked around the top 210 before falling in straight sets to a top-100 player. It shows he can win at Grand Slam qualifying level, a clear step above the M15 events where Dellavedova has built most of his 2026 record. The second-round score against Gaston also marks the ceiling, since a top-100 opponent closed him out without dropping a set.
- Beat Tristan Boyer 6-4 3-6 6-4
- Lost 6-1 6-3 to Hugo Gaston in the second round
- Both matches came in August 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 05:02 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andre Ilagan

1.44fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 69.4%

−3.4ppshort

Ilagan's higher ranking and two straight-set wins over Dellavedova point to a clear advantage.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Andre Ilagan

1.50fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 66.7%

−5.7ppshort

Ilagan's head-to-head first-set wins and higher ranking give him the edge at the start.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Andre Ilagan

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Ilagan's head-to-head second-set dominance and equal recent second-set record make him the likely set-two winner.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Andre Ilagan 2-0

2.10fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 47.6%

−5.6ppshort

Ilagan's two straight-set wins over Dellavedova make this a leading scoreline.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Ilagan's higher ranking and two straight-set wins over Dellavedova point to a clear advantage.
- Ilagan is ranked 184 to Dellavedova's 270.
- Ilagan leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning all four sets.
- Ilagan is 9-6 on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- He averages 24.6 total games per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndre IlaganEstimated chance66%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two previous meetings were settled in straight sets with few games.
- Combined hard-court average total games is about 22.2.
- Both head-to-head matches ended under 22.5 games.
- Dellavedova's hard-court matches average 19.7 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan's second sets often have many games, which lifts the chance of over.
- Dellavedova's second sets average 8.1 games.
- Ilagan's second sets average 10.7 games.
- Ilagan has played six second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two players' first-set averages sit right around the line.
- Dellavedova's first sets average 9.3 games.
- Ilagan's first sets average 9.7 games.
- Head-to-head first sets had 9 and 13 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players have ended in straight sets.
- Ilagan has played 9 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Dellavedova has played 11 of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Both prior meetings finished 2-0 to Ilagan.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ilagan's head-to-head first-set wins and higher ranking give him the edge at the start.
- Ilagan won the first set in both completed meetings.
- Ilagan has won 7 of 15 first sets on hard courts.
- Dellavedova has lost 6 of 14 first sets on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndre IlaganEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ilagan's head-to-head second-set dominance and equal recent second-set record make him the likely set-two winner.
- Ilagan won both head-to-head second sets 6-0 and 6-1.
- Ilagan has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard courts.
- Dellavedova has lost 5 of 14 second sets on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAndre IlaganEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellavedova's low tiebreak rate and Ilagan's seven tiebreak-free matches support no.
- Dellavedova has had a tiebreak in only 1 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Ilagan has had no tiebreak in 7 of 15 hard-court matches.
- One of the two head-to-head meetings had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Matthew Dellavedova

9W 6L

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#314Fajing Sun

6-4 6-2#603Hunter Heck

6-3 6-1#435Enzo Aguiard

4-6 6-3 6-3#855Grigoriy Lomakin

6-3 6-1#193Taro Daniel

7-5 6-2#151Ilia Simakin

4-6 6-3 4-1 ret.#376Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 4-6 6-4#898Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-2#382Kasidit Samrej

6-4 6-2#880Kristjan Tamm

6-2 6-2#507Tai Sach

6-1 6-2#548Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 6-2#296Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-5 6-2#536Shunsuke Mitsui

6-2 6-4#507Tai Sach

Andre Ilagan

9W 6L

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#269Petr Bar Biryukov

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(3)#602Bryce Nakashima

6-1 6-3#97Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 6-4#208Tristan Boyer

6-2 7-6(6)#136Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-4#192Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 2-6 6-1#152Tristan Schoolkate

2-6 6-4 6-3#322Andres Martin

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#198Edas Butvilas

6-4 6-4#449Spencer Johnson

7-6(5) 6-4#444Sebastian Gorzny

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 6-4#206Andres Andrade

6-3 7-6(2)#85Marcos Giron

7-5 7-6(2)#204Remy Bertola

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMatthew DellavedovaDellavedova

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Andre IlaganIlaganAI

Matthew Dellavedova carries the stronger recent form — Andre Ilagan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In67.8%+3.4pp64.4%

1st Serve Won67.3%+0.8pp68.1%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+1.1pp54.5%

Aces / Match2.8+2.45.2

Double Faults / Match1.51.0 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.0%+3.8pp36.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted51.7%+13.7pp38.0%

Break Pts Saved56.9%+7.5pp64.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.8%+1.7pp50.1%

Serve · 2–3

67.8%1st Serve In+3.4pp64.4%

67.3%1st Serve Won+0.8pp68.1%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp54.5%

2.8Aces / Match+2.45.2

1.5Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

40.0%Return Pts Won+3.8pp36.2%

Pressure · 1–1

51.7%Break Pts Converted+13.7pp38.0%

56.9%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp64.4%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won+1.7pp50.1%