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Predictions graded

Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia2Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5440

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Tue 29 Sept 2026, 03:09 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarat Sharipov · 102 places

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 19:24 · Europe/Bucharest

A Jingshan main-draw place is at stake between Sharipov, 13-2 in his tracked window and a hard-court title winner this month, and Leong, who has taken 7 of 11 opening sets.

Sharipov is the likely winner, but 1.22 for the match asks more than his form supports. The one price worth a look is Leong to win the first set at 3.2.

Context

Sharipov arrives with the strongest recent result in this match: a first Challenger title and a first week inside the top 250, both earned on hard courts in China, followed by a 7-6(11) 6-2 qualifying win over Naoya Honda in Jingshan. He also beat two top-200 opponents, Lloyd Harris and Elias Ymer, on the way to that title. The limitation is that the 6-0 6-3 final was shaped by a shoulder medical timeout for Pavel Kotov in the second set, so the score reads wider than the contest.
- Won the Guangzhou (Huangpu) final 6-0 6-3 against Pavel Kotov .
- First ATP Challenger singles title, achieved after back-to-back finals.
- Moved inside the top 250 for the first time, with a projected rise to a career-high No. 231.
- Beat third seed Lloyd Harris and Elias Ymer in consecutive rounds in Guangzhou.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 19:22 · Europe/Bucharest
The Zhangjiagang semi-final is the clearest evidence of Leong's current level and the reason this qualifying meeting reads closer than the ranking gap suggests. He advanced when James Kent Trotter retired in the quarter-final, then lost a three-set semi-final to sixth seed Ilia Simakin. It is the only Challenger semi-final of his career so far, which makes it the main reference point for his level at this grade.
- First ATP Challenger semi-final, reached at Zhangjiagang in September 2026.
- First Malaysian man to reach an ATP Challenger semi-final.
- Lost the semi-final to sixth seed Ilia Simakin .
- Reached the semi-final after James Kent Trotter retired in the quarter-final.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 19:22 · Europe/Bucharest
Sharipov has been the stronger hard-court player of the two since early September, and his second sets in particular have not slipped away from him.
If this follows his recent pattern, the second set is the part of the match where he has been hardest to break. His first sets have been the tighter ones, with three of 11 needing a tiebreak, so an early lead for Leong would not contradict the record.
- In 11 completed hard-court matches from 7 to 28 September 2026, Sharipov won the second set 11 times and lost none, averaging 6.36 games to 3.91; the sample contains no retirements.
- He took 21 of 25 hard-court sets (84%) across the same 11 matches, with 8 of the 11 finishing in straight sets.
- His opening sets in that sample were closer: 8 wins and 3 losses, with three first sets decided by a tiebreak.
This is the sharpest win in Sharipov's recent run: he lost the opening set, took the second-set tiebreak 7-6(6) and closed out the third against a seeded opponent. It matters because it shows he can beat a seeded, higher-ranked player at Challenger level, the type of win Leong has not yet recorded. The margin was narrow across three sets, so it reads as a hard-fought win rather than a one-sided one.
- Beat third seed Lloyd Harris 4-6 7-6(6) 6-3 in Guangzhou.
- Advanced to the quarter-finals of the Guangzhou Challenger.
- Won the second-set tiebreak 7-6(6) before closing out the third set.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 19:22 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Marat Sharipov

1.22fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 82%

−5.0ppshort

Sharipov has been winning at a higher level against better opponents, with a serve that has held up at 83% of first-serve points on hard courts.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Marat Sharipov

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

−8.9ppshort

Sharipov's record in second sets is the strongest part of his recent form, and his serving has been hard to break throughout.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Marat Sharipov (RUS) 2-0

1.73fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 57.8%

−5.8ppshort

Sharipov most often finishes these matches in straight sets, and his serving has limited opponents to around four games a set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Sharipov has been winning at a higher level against better opponents, with a serve that has held up at 83% of first-serve points on hard courts.
- Sharipov is 13-2 in the tracked 15-match window and 10-1 on hard courts, winning 21 of 25 hard-court sets (84%).
- He won the Guangzhou Challenger, beating Pavel Kotov 6-0 6-3 in the final after also beating Lloyd Harris and Elias Ymer.
- Ranking gap: No. 238 against No. 419.
- Common opponent: Sharipov beat Petr Bar Biryukov 7-5 6-3; Leong lost to Biryukov in three sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance77%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's own opening sets tend to run past nine games, with three tiebreaks in 11 matches.
- Sharipov's opening sets average 10.55 games on hard courts.
- Leong's opening sets average 9.0 games on hard courts.
- Sharipov's most recent match opened with a 7-6 set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets sit right around this line, with Sharipov's running slightly above it.
- Sharipov's second sets average 10.27 games on hard courts.
- Leong's second sets average 9.36 games.
- Six of Sharipov's 11 hard-court matches featured a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent completed matches have mostly finished below this line, and Sharipov's serving has kept sets short.
- Sharipov's recent hard-court matches average 23.5 total games; Leong's average 21.2.
- In the six most recent completed matches listed for each player, only three reached 22 games.
- Sharipov averaged 12.4 aces per match on this surface, which shortens service games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Sharipov's record in second sets is the strongest part of his recent form, and his serving has been hard to break throughout.
- Sharipov has won the second set in all 11 tracked hard-court matches (21 of 25 sets overall).
- He saves 72.4% of break points on this surface.
- Leong has lost set two only once in 11 tracked hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's heavy serving gives him the cleaner start, although Leong's own first-set record shows he usually stays in the opening set.
- Sharipov has won the opening set in 8 of 11 tracked hard-court matches.
- He averages 12.4 aces per match on this surface with 83.3% of first-serve points won.
- Leong has won the opening set in 7 of 11, so he is not routinely broken early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have usually finished their recent hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Sharipov's hard-court matches average 2.27 sets, with 8 of 11 finishing 2-0.
- Leong's hard-court matches average 2.27 sets, with 7 of 11 finishing 2-0.
- Sharipov has won 21 of 25 hard-court sets (84%).
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Sharipov most often finishes these matches in straight sets, and his serving has limited opponents to around four games a set.
- Sharipov has won 2-0 in 8 of 11 tracked hard-court matches.
- He has won 21 of 25 hard-court sets and 60.1% of games.
- Leong has lost 0-2 once in 11 tracked hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMarat Sharipov (RUS) 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets in these two players' recent samples were decided by a break rather than reaching 6-6.
- Leong averaged 9.0 games in first sets and 9.36 in second sets.
- Sharipov's most recent Jingshan match produced a 7-6 set, but his other sets were won 6-2 and 6-3.
- Four of Leong's 11 tracked matches went three sets, none requiring a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

13W 2L

7-6(11) 6-2#601Naoya Honda

6-0 6-3#182Pavel Kotov 7-5 6-3#281Petr Bar Biryukov 7-6(4) 6-3#192Elias Ymer

4-6 7-6(6) 6-3#125Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-3#692Thomas Fancutt

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#233Ilya Ivashka

6-3 7-5#182Pavel Kotov

6-4 6-4#428Omar Jasika

7-5 7-6(5)#172Taro Daniel

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#402Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#305Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#605Alexander Vasilev

6-3 6-3#663Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-2—Franco Ariel Vazquez

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

12W 3L

6-4 6-4#692Thomas Fancutt 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#281Petr Bar Biryukov

6-2 6-3#462James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-1#289Sergey Fomin

2-6 6-1 4-0 ret.#822Hanyi Liu

6-0 6-1—Ye Hongyu

6-2 6-1#428Omar Jasika

6-7(4) 6-4 ret.—Thijmen Loof

1-6 7-6(4) 6-3—Takeru Yuzuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#152Ilia Simakin

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#462James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-2#475Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-3#281Petr Bar Biryukov

6-1 6-4#622Dominik Palan

6-0 ret.—Weiyi Kong

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

M(Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Mitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeongML

Marat Sharipov (RUS) carries the stronger recent form — Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In61.0%+4.2pp65.2%

1st Serve Won82.2%+9.3pp72.9%

2nd Serve Won55.4%—56.1%

Aces / Match10.1+4.75.4

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.8%+2.1pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.3%+4.1pp47.4%

Break Pts Saved66.7%+8.8pp57.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.1%+0.8pp54.3%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

61.0%1st Serve In+4.2pp65.2%

82.2%1st Serve Won+9.3pp72.9%

55.4%2nd Serve Won—56.1%

10.1Aces / Match+4.75.4

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.9

Return · 0–1

39.8%Return Pts Won+2.1pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–1

43.3%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp47.4%

66.7%Break Pts Saved+8.8pp57.9%

Points · 1–0

55.1%Total Pts Won+0.8pp54.3%