ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Pavel Kotov #250Russia0Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia2

Sets 0-6 · 3-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePavel Kotov · 192 places

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Sharipov is the clear side: stronger hard-court serve numbers (82% first-serve points won, 12.4 aces/match), better recent form, and a 6-3 7-5 head-to-head win over Kotov eight days ago.

Best value is Sharipov match winner at 1.85 (7.9-point edge) and Sharipov 2-0 at 2.90 (13.5-point edge); avoid Kotov 2-0, as his tiebreak-heavy sets make a clean sweep unlikely.

Context

Both players arrive through the same Guangzhou hard-court draw, so the last-15 hard-court samples are directly comparable. Kotov, 221st, and Sharipov, 364th, have played almost all of their recent tennis on this surface.
Sharipov's hard-court sample includes 12.4 aces per match and 82% first-serve points won, against Kotov's 6.8 aces and 75.9%. Kotov's hard-court return points won (36.3%) is slightly lower than Sharipov's (36.4%), so the serve gap is the clearer separator. Kotov's 7-1 hard record still shows he is winning, but he has needed tiebreaks and three-setters more often.
- Sharipov last-15 hard: 8-1 record, 12.4 aces per match, 82% first-serve points won (9 matches tracked).
- Kotov last-15 hard: 7-1 record, 6.8 aces per match, 75.9% first-serve points won (8 matches tracked).
- Kotov's hard-court return points won (36.3%) is marginally below Sharipov's (36.4%) despite the better overall hard record.
There is no prior tour-level head-to-head, but the two met in the round of 16 at a hard-court Challenger on September 12, 2026, which Sharipov won in straight sets.
The 6-3 7-5 scoreline shows Sharipov broke Kotov twice without dropping a set. Kotov has since won four straight matches in Guangzhou, so the form line has shifted, but the direct match is the only sample of how these two match up.
- September 12, 2026: Sharipov beat Kotov 6-3 7-5 on hard at a Challenger event.
- No other head-to-head meetings are recorded between the two players.
Kotov has played four matches in Guangzhou, including a three-set win over Elias Ymer and a three-set win over Alexis Galarneau. Sharipov has played four matches but finished three of them in straight sets.
Kotov's average match duration is nearly 16 minutes longer than Sharipov's over the last-15 window. In a final, that extra time on court could matter if the match goes deep, though Kotov's straight-set semifinal win over Bernard Tomic was his shortest of the week.
- Kotov last-15 average match duration: 115.6 minutes (15 matches tracked).
- Sharipov last-15 average match duration: 99.7 minutes (15 matches tracked).
- Kotov played three-set matches against Ymer and Galarneau in Guangzhou; Sharipov's only three-set match was against Lloyd Harris.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Sharipov holds the stronger recent form, superior hard-court serve structure (82% first-serve points won, 12.4 aces/match) and a straight-sets win over Kotov eight days ago, so the recent-window and serve/return signals both favor him.
- Sharipov last-15 overall: 11-4 (73.3%) with 70.6% sets won vs Kotov 9-6 (60%) and 57.1% sets won (15 matches tracked)
- Hard-court last-15 split: Sharipov 8-1 (88.9%), 12.4 aces/match, 82% first-serve points won; Kotov 7-1 (87.5%) but only 6.8 aces/match
- Direct meeting 2026-09-12 on Hard: Sharipov won 6-3 7-5, conceding just 8 games
- Sharipov 2026 Hard record 21-8 vs Kotov 13-3; both finalists played semifinals 2026-09-19
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's quicker matches and efficient serving profile, plus the 21-game head-to-head, point to a total just under the line despite Kotov's tiebreak-heavy run.
- Sharipov last-15 average match duration 99.7 minutes vs Kotov 115.6 minutes (15 matches tracked)
- Sharipov Hard last-15: 129 games won / 223 played, average ~24.8 games per match
- Kotov's recent wins have been tight (four tiebreak sets in last five), but Sharipov's 6-3 7-5 win over him produced only 21 games
- Both players competed 2026-09-19, adding fatigue risk that can shorten rallies and sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's superior hard-court game share and the six-game margin in the direct meeting support a modest handicap cover.
- Sharipov won the 2026-09-12 meeting by a 6-game margin (13-8)
- Sharipov last-15 Hard games won 57.8% (129/223) vs Kotov 55.8% (106/190)
- Sharipov's 82% first-serve points won on Hard vs Kotov's 75.9%
- Sharipov's average hard-court match duration is shorter (104.1 vs 113.5 minutes)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMarat Sharipov (RUS) -2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's tendency toward tight opening sets and both players' strong hard-court serving point to a first set at or above 10 games.
- Kotov's last five matches produced opening sets of 7-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6 and 6-3
- Sharipov's recent opening sets: 7-5, 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-2, 6-4
- Head-to-head opening set was 6-3 (9 games)
- Both hold serve well on Hard, reducing early break frequency
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Sharipov's high first-set conversion and dominant hard-court set rate, plus his 6-3 opening set in the direct meeting, make him the stronger set-1 side.
- Sharipov career firstSetWinConversion 90% vs Kotov 86%
- Sharipov last-15 Hard: 17 of 21 sets won (81%), including 7-5 and 7-6 opening sets in his last two matches
- Kotov has needed tiebreaks in four of his last five wins, dropping early-set momentum repeatedly
- Head-to-head 2026-09-12: Sharipov took the opening set 6-3
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Sharipov's dominant hard-court set rate and his second-set win in the direct meeting give him the edge in set two.
- Sharipov last-15 Hard: 17 of 21 sets won (81%), including second sets 6-3 and 6-3 in his last two matches
- Head-to-head 2026-09-12: Sharipov took set two 7-5
- Kotov has lost the second set in three of his last five matches
- Sharipov's 82% first-serve points won on Hard sustains pressure across sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Sharipov's straight-set dominance on hard courts and the two-set head-to-head result favor a 2-0 finish, though Kotov's tiebreak resilience keeps this only medium confidence.
- Sharipov last-15: 24 sets won / 34 played, with 8 of 9 Hard matches won in straight sets
- Kotov last-15: 20 sets won / 35 played, dropping at least one set in 5 of 15 matches
- Direct meeting 2026-09-12 ended 6-3 7-5 in straight sets
- Both played semifinals on 2026-09-19, a fatigue factor that can compress a final
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's heavy hard-court ace rate plus Kotov's solid 6.8 per match comfortably clears the line if the match runs a normal length.
- Sharipov last-15 Hard: 12.4 aces per match (112 in 9 matches)
- Kotov last-15 Hard: 6.8 aces per match (54 in 8 matches)
- Combined recent hard-court ace rate implies roughly 19 aces per match
- Both are 188-191cm right-handers with strong first-serve profiles (Sharipov 82% first-serve points won on Hard)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' low recent double-fault rates, especially Sharipov's 1.1 per hard-court match, keep the combined total under the line.
- Sharipov last-15: 1.8 double faults per match overall, 1.1 per match on Hard (9 matches)
- Kotov last-15: 2.1 double faults per match overall and on Hard (8 matches)
- Combined recent rate is roughly 3.2 double faults per match
- Both have first-serve-in rates near 60-64%, limiting second-serve exposure
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's tiebreak-heavy recent pattern and both players' strong hard-court hold rates make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Kotov's last five matches include six tiebreak sets, including 7-6(3) 7-6(3) on 2026-09-19
- Kotov career tiebreak win rate 56%; Sharipov 54%
- Sharipov's recent hard-court wins include 7-6(4) and 7-6(6) sets
- Both players served efficiently on Hard (Sharipov 82%, Kotov 75.9% first-serve points won), making breaks scarce
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Pavel Kotov

9W 6L

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#185Bernard Tomic 6-1 7-6(2)#229Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(4)#319Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-1#126Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 7-5#364Marat Sharipov (RUS)

3-6 6-1 6-1#176Alexis Galarneau

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#351Jake Delaney

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#197Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#392Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#663Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#685Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#99Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-1#306Guy Den Ouden

1-6 6-1 6-2#271Cezar Cretu

6-1 3-6 6-4#164Gauthier Onclin

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

11W 4L

7-5 6-3#299Petr Bar Biryukov 7-6(4) 6-3#197Elias Ymer

4-6 7-6(6) 6-3#138Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-3#699Thomas Fancutt

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#230Ilya Ivashka

6-3 7-5#221Pavel Kotov

6-4 6-4#396Omar Jasika

7-5 7-6(5)#160Taro Daniel

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#406Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#307Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#615Alexander Vasilev

6-3 6-3#659Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-2—Franco Ariel Vazquez

6-4 3-6 6-3#838Aaron Funk

7-6(3) 6-3#379Andrej Martin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PKPavel KotovKotov

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)M(

Marat Sharipov (RUS) carries the stronger recent form — Pavel Kotov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In63.7%+3.5pp60.2%

1st Serve Won69.7%+10.3pp80.0%

2nd Serve Won52.6%+3.1pp55.7%

Aces / Match5.1+4.29.3

Double Faults / Match2.10.3 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.9%+0.9pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.5%+3.3pp39.8%

Break Pts Saved64.1%+2.9pp61.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.8%+2.8pp53.6%

Serve · 1–4

63.7%1st Serve In+3.5pp60.2%

69.7%1st Serve Won+10.3pp80.0%

52.6%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp55.7%

5.1Aces / Match+4.29.3

2.1Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

37.9%Return Pts Won+0.9pp38.8%

Pressure · 1–1

36.5%Break Pts Converted+3.3pp39.8%

64.1%Break Pts Saved+2.9pp61.2%

Points · 0–1

50.8%Total Pts Won+2.8pp53.6%

Pavel Kotov

Marat Sharipov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Marat Sharipov

Marat Sharipov

Marat Sharipov

Under 2.5

Marat Sharipov (RUS) 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Pavel Kotov

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

Stat Battle