ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia2Petr Bar Biryukov #285Russia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-3Sat 19 Sept 2026, 10:15 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Bar Biryukov · 157 places

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Sharipov is the rightful favourite on hard-court form (7-1 recent, 12.5 aces/match) and a 2-0 hard-court H2H, but the 1.18 match-winner price implies 84.7% against a 62% model estimate — a clear avoid.

The value lies in totals and tiebreak markets: Over 21.5 games, Over 2.5 sets, Over 15.5 aces, and a tiebreak in the match, with Sharipov 2-1 the most likely scoreline.

Context

Sharipov, 24, is ranked No. 364 and has spent most of his career on hard courts, where he owns 113 of his 222 career match wins. He is right-handed with a two-handed backhand and stands 188cm.
Sharipov's last-15 hard-court record is 7-1 with 12.5 aces per match and 81.9% first-serve points won, while Bar Biryukov is 6-4 on hard with 9.9 aces per match and 74.9% first-serve points won. The gap in serve effectiveness on this surface is the clearest statistical separator, though Bar Biryukov's three wins this week show he is managing the conditions well.
- Sharipov last-15 hard-court record: 7-1 (8 matches tracked), 12.5 aces per match, 81.9% first-serve points won.
- Bar Biryukov last-15 hard-court record: 6-4 (10 matches tracked), 9.9 aces per match, 74.9% first-serve points won.
- Sharipov has won four consecutive hard-court matches in Guangzhou this week, dropping one set across those wins.
- Bar Biryukov has won three consecutive hard-court matches in Guangzhou, including a three-set win over Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong.
Bar Biryukov, 23, is a 196cm left-hander ranked No. 299. He has played 330 career matches, winning 60%, with 159 of his 198 wins coming on hard courts.
Bar Biryukov's 5.0 double faults per match across the last 15 is the highest single serve metric in this matchup and a clear area Sharipov can target. Sharipov averages just 1.9 double faults per match, so the serve-error gap is a meaningful swing factor in a match where both players hold serve well.
- Bar Biryukov last-15 overall: 5.0 double faults per match (75 in 15 matches tracked).
- Bar Biryukov last-15 hard court: 4.3 double faults per match (43 in 10 matches tracked).
- Sharipov last-15 overall: 1.9 double faults per match (29 in 15 matches tracked).
- Bar Biryukov's 5.0 double faults per match is the highest serve-error rate in this matchup.
The two Russians have met twice before, both on hard courts. Sharipov won 6-1 6-2 in December 2022 and 2-6 6-3 10-7 in February 2023.
Sharipov's 2-0 lead is built on strong serving in those meetings: he won 85% of first-serve points and 73% of second-serve points across the two matches, while Bar Biryukov managed only 50% and 43% respectively. The 2023 match needed a deciding tiebreak, so the historical edge is real but not one-sided.
- Head-to-head: Sharipov leads 2-0, both matches on hard courts.
- 2023 meeting: Sharipov won 2-6 6-3 10-7 after a deciding tiebreak.
- 2022 meeting: Sharipov won 6-1 6-2.
- In the H2H sample, Sharipov won 85% of first-serve points and 73% of second-serve points; Bar Biryukov won 50% and 43%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Marat Sharipov

1.18fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Sharipov's superior hard-court form and 2-0 hard-court H2H edge justify favoring him, but the quoted 1.18 price is far shorter than the model's 62% estimate, so the exact quoted outcome is not fair or positive.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Sharipov's superior hard-court form (87.5% recent hard record, 12.5 aces/match) plus a clean 2-0 hard-court H2H edge gives him the structural serve/return and surface-fit advantage in this Bo3 semi-final.
- Last-15 overall: 11-4 (73.3%) with 24/34 sets won; Hard split 7-1 (87.5%) with 15/19 sets (matchesTracked=8).
- Hard serve profile: 12.5 aces/match, 81.9% first-serve points won, 63.8% first-serve in over 8 hard matches.
- H2H 2-0 Sharipov, both on Hard (2022 6-1 6-2; 2023 2-6 6-3 10-7), with 52% return points won vs Biryukov's 20%.
- Biryukov last-15: 9-6 (60%), 33.6% return points won, 5.0 double faults/match — weakest link is return and second-serve stability.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches are long and tiebreak-prone, and Biryukov's high double-fault rate plus Sharipov's modest 39.3% return points won point to extended games pushing the total over 21.5.
- Sharipov last-15 average duration 99.2 min; hard-court matches average 108.5 min (8 matches).
- Biryukov last-15 average duration 100.2 min; 5 of his last 8 matches went to a deciding set or tiebreak-heavy scorelines.
- Both players' recent hard matches frequently feature tiebreaks (Sharipov: 4 TBs in last 8 hard; Biryukov: 5 TBs in last 8).
- Biryukov's 5.0 double faults/match and 33.6% return points won suggest extended service games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's higher first-set conversion and H2H opening-set dominance, combined with Biryukov's recent slow starts, favor the home player in set one.
- Sharipov career first-set win conversion 90% vs Biryukov 85%.
- Sharipov recent hard matches: opened with 7-6, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7 across last 8 hard outings — strong early-set competitiveness.
- Biryukov has dropped opening sets in 3 of his last 6 matches (vs Leong, Yevseyev, Sun).
- H2H: Sharipov won the opening set in both prior meetings.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's stronger hard-court set-winning rate and serve stability give him the edge in set two, though Biryukov's recent form keeps this at low confidence.
- Sharipov last-15 sets won: 70.6% (24/34); Hard 78.9% (15/19).
- Biryukov last-15 sets won: 58.8% (20/34); Hard 60.9% (14/23).
- Sharipov's 81.9% first-serve points won on Hard gives him set-closing stability.
- Biryukov has lost the second set in 4 of his last 8 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent form for both players shows frequent three-set matches and a prior H2H decider, making Over 2.5 sets the value side in this Bo3 semi-final.
- Sharipov last-15: 24 sets won from 34 played (70.6%), with 4 of last 8 hard matches going to a deciding set.
- Biryukov last-15: 20 sets won from 34 (58.8%), with 4 of last 8 matches reaching a third set.
- H2H 2023 meeting went to a deciding set (2-6 6-3 10-7).
- Both players average ~100 minutes per match in the last-15 window.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches are tiebreak-heavy and their prior H2H included a deciding tiebreak, making at least one tiebreak in this Bo3 highly likely.
- Sharipov last 8 hard matches: 4 tiebreaks played.
- Biryukov last 8 matches: 5 tiebreaks played (including two in a single match vs Leong).
- Both players' recent hard matches average ~100+ minutes with tight set scorelines.
- H2H 2023 featured a 10-7 deciding tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court ace rates (12.5 and 9.9 per match) comfortably project over 15.5 combined, driven by their serve-first profiles and height.
- Sharipov last-15: 8.6 aces/match overall, 12.5 aces/match on Hard (8 matches).
- Biryukov last-15: 9.6 aces/match overall, 9.9 aces/match on Hard (10 matches).
- Combined hard-court ace rate projects ~22 aces per match.
- Both players are tall servers (Sharipov 188cm, Biryukov 196cm) on an outdoor hard court.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's elevated double-fault rate (5.0/match) combined with Sharipov's low but non-zero rate pushes the combined total just over 5.5.
- Biryukov last-15: 5.0 double faults/match overall, 4.3 on Hard (10 matches).
- Sharipov last-15: 1.9 double faults/match overall, 1.3 on Hard (8 matches).
- Combined hard-court projection: ~5.6 double faults per match.
- Biryukov's 56.4% first-serve in and 52.9% second-serve points won increase DF risk.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Sharipov is the rightful favorite, but 1.18 is a trap price that demands near-certainty in a Bo3 semi-final against a big server.

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W2-6 6-3 10-7Marat Sharipov (RUS)#364vPetr Bar Biryukov#299Feb 19, 2023

W6-1 6-2Marat Sharipov (RUS)#364vPetr Bar Biryukov#299Dec 14, 2022

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

11W 4L

7-6(4) 6-3#197Elias Ymer

4-6 7-6(6) 6-3#138Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-3#699Thomas Fancutt

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#230Ilya Ivashka

6-3 7-5#221Pavel Kotov

6-4 6-4#396Omar Jasika

7-5 7-6(5)#160Taro Daniel

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#406Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#307Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#615Alexander Vasilev

6-3 6-3#659Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-2—Franco Ariel Vazquez

6-4 3-6 6-3#838Aaron Funk

7-6(3) 6-3#379Andrej Martin

6-1 3-1 ret.#886Tomas Lanik

Petr Bar Biryukov

9W 6L

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#464Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#656Naoya Honda

6-3 6-4#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-2#417Denis Yevseyev

7-6(3) 6-3#464Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#867Qian Sun

7-5 6-3#635Kokoro Isomura

7-6(3) 6-4#794Tianhui Zhang

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4—James Van Herzeele

6-4 6-4—Zhiheng Xia

6-4 6-2#447Jie Cui

6-2 6-3#758Taisei Ichikawa

7-6(4) 0-1 ret.#585Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-2 6-4#721Grigory Shebekin

7-6(1) 6-2—Damir Zhalgasbay

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

M(Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Petr Bar BiryukovBiryukovPB

Marat Sharipov (RUS) carries the stronger recent form — Petr Bar Biryukov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In60.0%+3.6pp56.4%

1st Serve Won80.0%+4.5pp75.5%

2nd Serve Won54.3%+1.4pp52.9%

Aces / Match8.6+1.09.6

Double Faults / Match1.93.1 fewer5.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.3%+5.7pp33.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.4%+1.3pp39.1%

Break Pts Saved60.4%+1.1pp61.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+3.5pp50.1%

Serve · 4–1

60.0%1st Serve In+3.6pp56.4%

80.0%1st Serve Won+4.5pp75.5%

54.3%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp52.9%

8.6Aces / Match+1.09.6

1.9Double Faults / Match3.1 fewer5.0

Return · 1–0

39.3%Return Pts Won+5.7pp33.6%

Pressure · 1–1

40.4%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp39.1%

60.4%Break Pts Saved+1.1pp61.5%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+3.5pp50.1%

Marat Sharipov

Petr Bar Biryukov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Marat Sharipov

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 1 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Marat Sharipov @ 1.18

Head-to-Head

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

Petr Bar Biryukov

Stat Battle