Abedallah Shelbayh #261Jordan22 – 0Billy Harris #155United Kingdom0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Despite limited hard-court data, both players' overall recent match lengths and moderate break-point save rates point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Shelbayh's last 15 matches average 20.7 total games (310 games/15 matches), but his hard-court match had 17 games (small sample).
• Harris's last 15 matches average 27.6 total games (414/15), with his lone hard-court match at 18 games.
• Both players have break-point save rates below 61% in last 15 (Shelbayh 57.8%, Harris 60.2%), suggesting breaks are likely.
• Harris's matches average 130.8 minutes, indicating longer contests.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Recent first-set game averages for both players hover around 10, and their break-point vulnerabilities support a set going over 9.5 games.

• In last 15, Shelbayh's average first-set games is 9.7 (146 total games/15 matches); Harris's is 10.1 (200/15).
• Shelbayh's lone hard-court first set had 10 games; Harris's had 8.
• Both players have break-point save rates under 61%, increasing likelihood of breaks and extended sets.
• Harris's tiebreak win rate is 49% career, Shelbayh's 48%, so tiebreaks are possible.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Both players have similar recent game differentials, and Shelbayh's return game could keep the match close, making a +3.5 handicap cover likely.

• Shelbayh's last 15 matches show an average game differential of -0.9 per match (146 won, 164 lost).
• Harris's average game differential in last 15 is -0.9 as well (200 won, 214 lost).
• In their lone hard-court matches, Shelbayh lost by 7 games (5-12), Harris by 6 (6-12).
• Shelbayh's return points won (38.4%) is slightly better than Harris's (36.3%) in last 15.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Harris's strong serving, especially in recent matches, makes it likely the combined ace count exceeds 8.5, even with Shelbayh's low ace output.

• Harris averages 6.9 aces per match in last 15; Shelbayh averages 2.1.
• On hard courts, Harris had 8 aces in his only recent match; Shelbayh had 1.
• Harris's career ace count is 2970 in 756 matches (3.9 per match), but recent form shows higher ace rates.
• Shelbayh's first-serve percentage is low (57.5%), which may limit his aces but Harris's high ace rate alone could push total over 8.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent double-fault rates suggest a combined total over 5.5 is probable, though limited hard-court data adds uncertainty.

• Shelbayh averages 3.5 double faults per match in last 15; Harris averages 2.9.
• On hard courts, Shelbayh had 4 double faults in his only match; Harris had 3.
• Shelbayh's first-serve percentage is low (57.5%), which often correlates with more double faults.
• Combined average in last 15 is 6.4 double faults per match.