Stefano Napolitano vs Billy Harris: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Harris's superior grass-court pedigree, current-season grass form, and higher ranking give him a clear edge, supported by a straight-set H2H win.
- Harris has a 38-15 career grass win-loss record (71.7% win rate), while Napolitano is 13-7 on grass (65.0%).
- In 2026, Harris is 4-3 on grass with wins over top-135 opponents; Napolitano has no grass matches this season.
- Harris won the only H2H meeting 7-5 6-3 on indoor hard in 2023, showing a serving edge (12 aces, 56% first serves).
- Harris holds a higher ranking (142 vs 245) and has a 58.9% career win rate compared to Napolitano's 54.5%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBilly HarrisEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths for both players trend toward longer contests, and their comparable serve-hold stats support a match with over 21.5 games.
- Napolitano's last five matches have averaged 22.6 total games, with three exceeding 21.5 games.
- Harris's last five matches have averaged 25.6 total games, with four exceeding 21.5 games.
- Both players have similar break-point save rates (Napolitano 59.2%, Harris 60.3%), suggesting tight service games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's recent trend of tight first sets and the potential for a tiebreak make over 9.5 games in set 1 a reasonable outcome.
- Harris's last three matches have seen first sets of 7-6, 7-6, and 7-5, all over 9.5 games.
- Napolitano's last two completed first sets were 6-3 and 6-2, but his overall set-1 game average in recent matches is 9.4.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates near 50%, increasing the chance of extended first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Harris's high first-set conversion rate and Napolitano's recent shaky starts make Harris the likely first-set winner.
- Harris has won 86% of matches when taking the first set in his career, indicating strong front-running ability.
- Napolitano's recent form includes a retirement loss and a three-set win in his last two matches, suggesting slow starts.
- On grass, Harris's serve (70.3% first-serve points won) should pressure Napolitano's return (39% return points won).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBilly HarrisEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's recent high frequency of tiebreaks and both players' neutral tiebreak records make a tiebreak in this match likely.
- Harris has played a tiebreak in four of his last five matches.
- Napolitano has played a tiebreak in two of his last five matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates close to 50% (Napolitano 52%, Harris 49%), indicating frequent tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' ace rates and the grass surface suggest a combined ace total exceeding 12.5 is likely.
- Harris averages 6.6 aces per match, and Napolitano averages 6.5 aces per match, combining for 13.1 aces on average.
- In their H2H, Harris hit 12 aces and Napolitano 3, totaling 15 aces in a straight-set match.
- Grass courts typically increase ace counts due to faster surfaces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault averages and grass-court conditions make over 5.5 double faults a plausible outcome.
- Harris has a double-fault rate of 4.5%, averaging about 3.5 double faults per match.
- Napolitano's double-fault rate is 2.7%, averaging about 2.1 double faults per match.
- Combined, they average 5.6 double faults per match, and grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive serving.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Stefano Napolitano #245Italy0Billy Harris #142United Kingdom2

Player Profiles

Stefano Napolitano

Billy Harris

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Billy Harris

Billy Harris

Billy Harris 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Stefano Napolitano

Billy Harris