SpainMallorca - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Billy Harris #167United Kingdom1Felix Balshaw #248France2

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 5-7Fri 4 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBilly Harris · 81 places

Billy Harris

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 22 January 1995. His documented career-high singles ranking is No. 101 in September 2024; no reliable current source established a preferred surface or an active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #101 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Felix Balshaw

France

A 20-year-old, 193 cm right-hander with a one-handed backhand. He reached a career-high No. 246 in July 2026 during a rapid rise that included two Challenger finals.

Current ranking: #248
Peak ranking: #246 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Balshaw has a slight edge in recent form and hard-court performance, especially in return points, but the betting value on him is limited at 1.65.

The match is likely to be competitive, with a good chance of over 21.5 total games and at least one tiebreak.

Context

Balshaw, 22, is ranked 252 and has a 57.1% hard-court win rate in his last seven matches on the surface. Harris, 29, is ranked 161 but has only a 42.9% win rate in his last seven hard-court matches.
Balshaw's recent hard-court results include wins over Alexandre Muller and August Holmgren, while Harris has lost to lower-ranked players like Toby Samuel and Kyrian Jacquet. This suggests Balshaw may be more comfortable on this surface, though the sample size is small.
- Balshaw's last 7 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 3 losses (57.1% win rate).
- Harris's last 7 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 4 losses (42.9% win rate).
- Balshaw beat Alexandre Muller (rank 138) and August Holmgren (rank 247) in his last two hard-court matches.
- Harris lost to Toby Samuel (rank 110) and Kyrian Jacquet (rank 108) in recent hard-court matches.
Balshaw's return points won percentage is 39.7% over his last 15 matches, compared to Harris's 36.7%. Balshaw also converts break points at a slightly higher rate (36.1% vs 33.0%).
If Balshaw can consistently put returns in play, he may create more break opportunities against Harris, whose first-serve percentage is only 60.3%. However, Harris saves break points at 64.8%, so Balshaw will need to be efficient on his chances.
- Balshaw's return points won: 39.7% (last 15 matches).
- Harris's return points won: 36.7% (last 15 matches).
- Balshaw's break point conversion: 36.1% vs Harris's 33.0%.
- Harris's first serve in: 60.3% and break points saved: 64.8%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Felix Balshaw

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Balshaw's stronger recent form and hard-court edge, especially in return points, give him the advantage in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Balshaw's stronger recent form and hard-court edge, especially in return points, give him the advantage in this Bo3 match.
- Balshaw last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Harris 8-7 (53.3%)
- Balshaw last15 hard record 4-3 (57.1%) vs Harris 3-4 (42.9%)
- Balshaw last15 total points won 51.5% vs Harris 49.9%
- Balshaw last15 return points won 39.7% vs Harris 36.7%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix BalshawEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average games per match for both players exceeds 21.5, and their recent form suggests a competitive encounter.
- Harris last15 average games per match 24.5 (367 games / 15 matches)
- Balshaw last15 average games per match 22.8 (342 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar competitive recent matches with several three-setters
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average set length for both players is above 9.5 games, indicating a likely competitive first set.
- Harris last15 average set games 9.9 (367 games / 37 sets)
- Balshaw last15 average set games 10.1 (342 games / 34 sets)
- Both players have had multiple tiebreaks and close sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Balshaw's superior hard-court serve performance and overall set win rate suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.
- Balshaw last15 first set win rate not directly available, but overall sets won 58.8% vs Harris 51.4%
- Balshaw last15 hard first serve points won 73.4% vs Harris 66.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFelix BalshawEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches suggests a decent chance of at least one tiebreak in this match.
- Harris last15 tiebreak win percentage 49% career, with several recent tiebreaks
- Balshaw last15 tiebreak win percentage 49% career, with several recent tiebreaks
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players exceed 9.5, making the over a reasonable play.
- Harris last15 aces per match 5.8
- Balshaw last15 aces per match 4.8
- Combined average aces per match 10.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages are just above 5.5, giving a slight edge to the over.
- Harris last15 double faults per match 2.7
- Balshaw last15 double faults per match 3.1
- Combined average double faults per match 5.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Felix Balshaw has been highly reliable when projected to win

Felix Balshaw has fulfilled 9 of 12 win predictions (75%). His matched predictions averaged 70% estimated probability, while missed predictions averaged 62%, indicating stronger confidence in successful outcomes. The current prediction of 58% is within his historical range of 58-82%.

Recent evidence for Felix Balshaw12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#242Stefano Napolitano2-1#259Felix Balshaw

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·62%

Missed

13 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#242Stefano Napolitano2-1#259Felix Balshaw

Felix Balshaw to win

62%probability

Stefano Napolitano won

Missed

27 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw0-2#285Sumit Nagal

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·62%

Missed

27 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw0-2#285Sumit Nagal

Felix Balshaw to win

62%probability

Sumit Nagal won

Missed

26 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-0#277Andrej Nedic

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·60%

Matched

26 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-0#277Andrej Nedic

Felix Balshaw to win

60%probability

Felix Balshaw won

Matched

25 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-1#280Martin Krumich

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-1#280Martin Krumich

Felix Balshaw to win

62%probability

Felix Balshaw won

Matched

23 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-0#853Stefan Horia Haita

BetBugsFelix Balshaw to win·78%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#320Felix Balshaw2-0#853Stefan Horia Haita

Felix Balshaw to win

78%probability

Felix Balshaw won

Matched

Previous match context available

Billy Harris

8W 7L

7-5 6-4#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-6(3)#243Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-1 6-4#110Toby Samuel

6-1 6-3#172Gonzalo Bueno

6-2 6-1#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 7-6(2)#251Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#368Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#50Karen Khachanov

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2 6-3#248Yi Zhou

6-4 6-4#118Zsombor Piros

6-2 6-2#229Stefano Napolitano

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#109Otto Virtanen

7-6(3) 6-7(3) 6-4#87Arthur Gea

7-5 3-6 6-1#94Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-4 7-6(5)#123Dane Sweeny

Felix Balshaw

9W 6L

7-5 6-2#138Alexandre Muller 7-6(3) 7-5#247August Holmgren

6-4 7-6(4)#84Aleksandar Kovacevic

4-6 6-4 6-3#731Sebastian Gorzny

7-5 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-4 7-6(3)#238Alejandro Moro Canas

5-7 7-5 7-6(0)#322Daniel Milavsky

6-1 4-6 6-1#229Stefano Napolitano

7-6(4) 6-4#298Florian Broska

6-0 6-2#276Philip Henning

6-2 7-5#347Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-3 7-5#236Sumit Nagal

7-6(5) 7-5#257Andrej Nedic

6-3 3-6 6-3#263Martin Krumich

6-1 3-0 ret.#170Elmer Moller

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BHBilly HarrisHarris

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Felix BalshawBalshawFB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.3%+5.5pp54.8%

1st Serve Won71.1%—70.5%

2nd Serve Won53.1%+3.0pp56.1%

Aces / Match5.8+1.04.8

Double Faults / Match2.70.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.7%+3.0pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.0%+3.1pp36.1%

Break Pts Saved64.8%+12.6pp52.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.6pp51.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

60.3%1st Serve In+5.5pp54.8%

71.1%1st Serve Won—70.5%

53.1%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp56.1%

5.8Aces / Match+1.04.8

2.7Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

36.7%Return Pts Won+3.0pp39.7%

Pressure · 1–1

33.0%Break Pts Converted+3.1pp36.1%

64.8%Break Pts Saved+12.6pp52.2%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.6pp51.5%