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UdineseRoma

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 17:0031 Oct, 17:00

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Quick Take

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Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 04:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Roma are unbeaten in nine league games and visit a Udinese side with no home win and two goals in five at the Friuli; the visitors should take the points, but at 1.5 the price asks too much.

Three quotes hold up: Udinese to score fewer than two goals at 1.3, both teams not to score at 2.1, and over 8.5 corners at 1.65.

Context

Roma's reported absences of Dybala, Pellegrini and Svilar, with Kone's status unresolved, plus Udinese injuries to Bayo, Gueye and Alaba, affect both squads, though none of the team news is confirmed by a club sheet.

Training coverage on 29 October placed P. Dybala on an individual programme, while later reporting said he would miss Udinese. That creates a concrete selection-availability change in Roma’s preparation for this trip. No club squad release was available in the material, so the claim remains reported.
- On 29 October, P. Dybala was training individually ahead of Udinese–Roma.
- Reporting on 29 October placed P. Dybala out for the Udinese match.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 04:01 · Europe/Bucharest
Reports on 29 October placed M. Svilar’s return after the international break and named P. Gollini for Udinese. That supplies a specific goalkeeper-selection change for this fixture. The available evidence is media reporting rather than a club team-sheet, so its status is reported.
- On 29 October, M. Svilar’s return was deferred until after the international break.
- The same reporting named P. Gollini as the goalkeeper for Udinese.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 04:01 · Europe/Bucharest
On 29 October, a training update placed M. Koné on individual work and separate coverage framed Sassuolo as a potential return target. That leaves a live selection uncertainty for Roma’s visit to Udine. Neither source provided a final squad decision for this match.
- A 29 October training update placed M. Koné on individual work before Udinese–Roma.
- Separate reporting named Sassuolo as a possible return target for M. Koné.
To watchSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 04:01 · Europe/Bucharest
Udinese's 1-0 win in Udine on 2 February 2026 is why this is not a formality, even though Roma won the other four meetings in the last five. It gives the home side a recent template for beating this opponent, while Roma's broader control of the series still points their way.
- Udinese beat Roma 1-0 at home in Serie A on 2 February 2026.
- Roma won the other four of the last five meetings, including 2-0 in Rome on 9 November 2025 and 3-0 on 22 September 2024.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Roma's unbeaten league form and strong away record make them the clearer winner, while Udinese's home results are poor.
- Roma are 3rd with 21 points from 9 league games and unbeaten (6W3D).
- Udinese are 17th with 5 points and a home record of 0W1D4L, scoring 2 and conceding 9 in 5.
- Roma's away record is 2W2D0L with 9 goals scored and 3 conceded in 4.
- Roma have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerRomaMarket price1.50Estimated chance55%

Goals4 outcomes · top 82%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Udinese's home scoring is very low, and Roma's away defence has been solid enough to keep them under two goals.
- Udinese have scored only 2 goals in 5 home league games.
- Udinese average 0.71 goals per home match across 7 home competitive games.
- Roma have conceded 3 goals in 4 away league games and kept 3 clean sheets in 5 away matches.
- Udinese failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches (Parma, Milan, Lecce).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalUdinese under 1.5Market price1.30Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Udinese's low-scoring home matches and Roma's tighter away numbers point to fewer than four goals.
- Udinese's five home league games have produced 11 total goals, an average of 2.2.
- Roma's four away league games have produced 12 total goals, an average of 3.0.
- Udinese average 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 conceded overall; Roma average 2.58 scored and 1.08 conceded.
- Five of Udinese's last six matches finished under 3.5 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5Market price1.50Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Roma's early scoring and Udinese's first-half concessions make at least one goal before the break the favoured outcome.
- Roma average 1.08 first-half goals overall and 1.0 away.
- Udinese average 0.82 first-half goals overall and 0.43 at home.
- Roma concede only 0.25 first-half goals overall, but Udinese have conceded 0.57 first-half goals at home.
- Four of Roma's last six matches and four of Udinese's last six had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.25Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Udinese's scoring drought at home makes a clean sheet for Roma the most likely way this stays a no on both teams scoring.
- Udinese have scored only 2 goals in 5 home league games.
- Udinese failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Roma kept 3 clean sheets in 5 away matches and conceded in only 2.
- Roma scored in 4 of 5 away matches, so the main route to BTTS No is Udinese being blanked.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price2.10Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 outcome · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams' corner averages combine to around ten per match, with Roma especially active from wide areas.
- Udinese average 4.18 corners per match and concede 5.0; at home they average 4.71.
- Roma average 5.83 corners per match and concede 3.25; away they average 5.0.
- Combining Udinese's home corner average and Roma's away average gives 9.71 corners.
- Recent counts include Udinese 16 vs Cagliari and Roma 11 at Napoli.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Market price1.65Estimated chance65%