Torino2Udinese1

HT 1–1Mon 12 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges4–544%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 12–15On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 17:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Both sit on four points, but Torino have lost both home league games while Udinese arrive on three straight defeats and without two attacking players.

A tight, low-scoring game looks likely, with Udinese starting better and Torino stronger after the break. Udinese to win at 3.1, to be ahead at half-time at 3.6, level or ahead at half-time at 1.38 and both teams to score at 1.83 all offer something; the remaining reviewed prices are thinner.

Context

Torino have cycled through Zapata and Simeone during Adams' absence and have scored only once across their last two league matches. Adams trained fully on 8 October, so he is in contention to feature at the Olimpico, which would give Abate a recognised central striker again. The caveat is fitness: after four weeks out with an adductor strain, a start is far from guaranteed and a substitute appearance is the more cautious expectation.
- Sustained a low-grade strain to the left thigh adductors in mid-September.
- Returned to group training on 8 October after roughly four weeks out.
- Full availability for the Udinese match is still to be assessed.
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Alaba joined as a free agent and is available for the first time, fitting the back three Runjaic has used. His arrival gives Udinese a left-sided centre-back option alongside Kabasele and Abankwah or Ebosse, which could change how the side builds out. The limitation is sharp: Alaba has had very little competitive football in recent seasons because of injury, so a full 90 minutes is unlikely and a bench role is the realistic outcome for this fixture.
- Joined Udinese as a free agent after his Real Madrid contract expired.
- Included in the matchday group for the first time ahead of the Torino trip.
- Plays as a centre-back in the three-defender system used by Kosta Runjaic.
- D. Alaba started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Zaniolo had started the season in Udinese's attacking line and his muscle injury removes a direct runner between the lines. Runjaic now has to fill that slot, most likely from Unai Gomez, Bayo or Jovanovic. The injury is not serious and a short absence is expected, but it lands in a week when Udinese are already without Idrissa Gueye.
- Out with a muscle injury for the Torino match.
- Expected to resume training shortly after the fixture.
- Had started the season in Udinese's attacking line.
- N. Zaniolo started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Gueye was a rotation forward rather than a guaranteed starter, but his ankle surgery removes a physical option behind Keinan Davis for roughly three months. With Zaniolo also unavailable, Udinese's attacking cover is unusually thin for the Torino trip. The practical effect on the first XI is limited if Davis is fit, but Runjaic loses the ability to change the front line from the bench.
- Underwent ankle surgery in early October.
- Expected to be sidelined for around three months.
- Had scored once in six appearances this season.
- I. Gueye started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 17:44 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Torino have the home ground and face an Udinese side missing two forwards, which offsets their modest overall record.
- Torino at home this season: 0 wins, 2 defeats, 1 scored and 4 conceded
- Torino home window: 2W 2D 3L with 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded per game
- Udinese missing attackers Zaniolo (muscle) and Gueye (ankle surgery)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTorinoEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Torino's quiet home openings and Udinese's modest first-half concession rate favour a level half.
- Torino home first halves average 0.71 total goals
- Torino have drawn 3 of 12 matches overall
- Udinese conceded first-half goals in only 0.57 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Torino do most of their scoring late while Udinese fade after the break, which favours the hosts in the second half.
- Torino score 0.83 of their 1.08 goals per game after half time
- Udinese concede 1.14 second-half goals on average
- Udinese score only 0.43 second-half goals on average
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonTorinoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Torino have the home ground and face an Udinese side missing two forwards, which offsets their modest overall record. Udinese have the recent head-to-head upper hand and have shown a persistent scoring threat on the road.
- Torino at home this season: 0 wins, 2 defeats, 1 scored and 4 conceded
- Torino home window: 2W 2D 3L with 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded per game
- Udinese won both 2025-26 league meetings (2-1 away, 2-0 home)
- Udinese away games this season: 6 scored, 7 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTorino or UdineseEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Torino's quiet home openings and Udinese's modest first-half concession rate favour a level half. Udinese have been the quicker starters and often score before half time.
- Torino home first halves average 0.71 total goals
- Torino have drawn 3 of 12 matches overall
- Udinese average 1.14 first-half goals overall
- Udinese scored 2.5 first-half goals per away game in a two-game sample
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or UdineseEstimated chance82%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Torino's low-scoring home profile and Udinese's thin attack point to a tighter, lower-scoring contest.
- Torino home matches average 2.57 goals
- Torino score just 0.25 first-half goals on average
- Udinese have scored one goal across their last two league defeats
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Neither side keeps clean sheets reliably, so both finding the net is the more likely single outcome.
- Torino have both scored in 8 of 12 competitive matches
- Udinese have both scored in 5 of 7 competitive matches
- Torino kept only one clean sheet in 12 games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Udinese's habit of scoring early makes at least one first-half goal the likely outcome.
- Torino home first halves average 0.71 goals
- Udinese first halves average 1.71 goals
- Udinese scored in the first half in 4 of their last 6 league and cup games
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Torino's slow home starts make a first half without goals from both sides the strong favourite.
- Torino have failed to score in the first half of most recent home games
- Udinese conceded only 0.57 first-half goals on average
- Torino concede 0.75 first-half goals on average
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A single second-half goal is the most common outcome given both sides' modest late scoring rates.
- Udinese score only 0.43 second-half goals on average
- Torino score 0.83 second-half goals on average
- Torino home second halves average 1.71 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Torino's low scoring output makes one goal or none the more likely outcome.
- Torino average 1.14 goals per home match
- Torino scored one goal in two home league games this season
- Torino score 0.25 first-half goals on average
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostTorino under 1.5Estimated chance61%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both clubs' matches regularly clear nine corners, and Udinese's recent games have been busy from wide areas.
- Torino home matches average 10.28 total corners
- Udinese matches average 10.14 total corners
- Udinese's last match produced 17 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' matches are shot-heavy, with Udinese's away games in particular producing plenty of attempts.
- Torino home matches average 27.29 total shots
- Udinese away games average 30 total shots
- Udinese's last match had 31 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 25.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defenses allow steady work on goal, keeping eight shots on target achievable.
- Torino matches average 7.92 shots on target in total
- Udinese matches average 9.86 shots on target in total
- Udinese's last away game produced 17 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both clubs' matches have produced few bookings this season, pointing to a quiet game for the referee.
- Torino matches average 2.73 total cards
- Udinese matches average 2.57 total cards
- Torino's opponents average 1.55 yellow cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance64%