Serie AFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Torino0Roma2

HT 0–1Mon 14 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 7–14On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 1–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 06:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Roma are likely to win, but the odds offer no value on the away side or double chance.

The best betting edge is Over 2.5 goals at 1.85, with a +4 point edge, though Roma's Champions League fatigue is a key risk.

Context

Roma sit first in Serie A with nine points from three matches, scoring ten goals and conceding one.
Their away record is perfect after a 4-0 win at Lecce on 31 August 2026. This early-season dominance suggests they can control the match against a Torino side that has lost two of three league games. However, the sample is small and Roma's away form is based on only one match.
- Roma have won all three Serie A matches this season, scoring 10 goals and conceding 1.
- In their only away league match, Roma beat Lecce 4-0 on 31 August 2026.
- Roma lead the Serie A table with 9 points, 6 points ahead of Torino.
Torino are 13th in Serie A with three points from three matches, scoring four and conceding five.
Their only home league match was a 2-1 loss to AC Milan on 23 August 2026. They also lost 2-1 at Sassuolo on 29 August 2026. This poor start, especially at home, puts them at a disadvantage against a Roma side in strong form. However, Torino did win their most recent league match 2-1 at Fiorentina on 5 September 2026, showing some improvement.
- Torino have lost two of their first three Serie A matches this season.
- At home, Torino lost 2-1 to AC Milan on 23 August 2026.
- Torino are 13th in the table with 3 points, 6 points behind leaders Roma.
The last five meetings between Torino and Roma have produced four Roma wins and one Torino win.
Roma won 2-0 at Torino on 18 January 2026 and 2-0 at home on 25 May 2025. Torino's only win in this span was a 1-0 home victory on 14 September 2025. This pattern suggests Roma have a tactical edge in this fixture, though the most recent Torino win shows they can compete at home.
- Roma won 2-0 at Torino on 18 January 2026.
- Roma won 2-0 at home against Torino on 25 May 2025.
- Torino won 1-0 at home against Roma on 14 September 2025.
Torino centre-back Saúl Coco started in the back three at Fiorentina on 5 September but was substituted in the 39th minute with right-knee pain.
His availability for Roma remains unresolved, and if he misses out, Torino would need to adjust their central defensive unit. The club is still monitoring the injury, so the situation could change before kickoff.
- Torino's official report lists Coco in the starting back three at Fiorentina before his 39th-minute substitution on 5 September.
- Gazzetta reported that Coco left with right-knee pain from a knock and that his availability for Roma was still being monitored on 7 September.
To watchSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 06:42 · Europe/BucharestTorino FC match report: Fiorentina 1-2 Torinobe.torinofc.it · 5 Sep 2026Gazzetta: Coco in doubt for Roma after knee knockwww.gazzetta.it · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Roma

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Roma's perfect Serie A start and Torino's poor home form support an away win, but the odds already reflect that probability.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Roma

1.14fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

Roma's unbeaten run and Torino's home struggles make a Roma win or draw likely, but the odds are heavily juiced.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Roma

1.13fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Roma's first-half strength and Torino's tendency to draw at half-time make a Roma lead or draw likely, but the odds are prohibitive.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Roma's tendency to start quickly and Torino's first-half defensive issues make a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's perfect start and superior attacking output, combined with Torino's poor home form, make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Roma have won all 3 Serie A matches this season, scoring 10 and conceding 1.
- Torino have lost 2 of their 3 Serie A matches, including their only home game 1-2.
- Roma have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including the most recent 2-0 away win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's strong form and Torino's home struggles make a Roma win or draw highly probable.
- Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 Serie A matches (4W, 1D).
- Torino have failed to win any of their last 3 home matches in all competitions.
- Roma have avoided defeat in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or RomaEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's first-half dominance gives them an edge, but a draw at half-time is also plausible.
- Roma have led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Torino have trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Roma average 1.3 first-half goals compared to Torino's 0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's ability to maintain intensity and Torino's second-half struggles favor Roma in the second half.
- Roma have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Torino have lost the second half in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Roma's superior squad depth may help them finish stronger.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's strong first-half performances and overall dominance make a half-time/full-time double plausible.
- Roma have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Torino have not won a home match this season.
- Roma's overall superiority suggests they could lead at both intervals.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonRoma/RomaEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's ability to dominate both halves is possible but not highly likely given Torino's resilience.
- Roma have won both halves in 2 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Torino have lost both halves in 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- Roma's attacking depth could overwhelm Torino in both periods.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonRomaEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's first-half strength and Torino's tendency to draw at half-time make a Roma lead or draw likely.
- Roma have led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Torino have drawn at half-time in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Roma have not trailed at half-time in their last 5 Serie A matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or RomaEstimated chance75%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's high-scoring attack and Torino's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a match with at least three goals.
- Roma's Serie A matches average 3.7 total goals this season.
- Torino's last 5 home matches have seen 2.6 goals on average.
- Roma have scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Torino's ability to score at home and Roma's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a reasonable possibility.
- Torino have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Roma have conceded in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's tendency to start quickly and Torino's first-half defensive issues make a first-half goal likely.
- Roma have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Torino have conceded a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Roma average 1.3 first-half goals per match this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown second-half scoring patterns, but the probability is only moderate.
- Roma have scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Torino have conceded in the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- The last H2H meeting saw 2 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Torino's poor first-half scoring and Roma's solid first-half defense make both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.
- Torino have scored a first-half goal in only 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- Roma have conceded a first-half goal in only 1 of their last 5 away matches.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 1 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Roma has been highly reliable when projected to win

Roma has fulfilled 6 of 6 recent match winner predictions, a 100% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 55.2%, with an expected 3.3 fulfilled predictions, indicating strong overperformance. All six wins came with probabilities between 40% and 72%, and the current 62% prediction sits within that historical range.

Recent evidence for Roma6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Serie A