Roma2Atalanta1

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 39–6On targetOn target 10–2CornersCorners 14–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 14:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Roma are slight favorites at home, but the odds on Roma to win and double chance offer no value.

The only positive edge is on Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.85, with a 58% estimated probability versus 54.1% implied. Avoid the match winner and over 2.5 goals markets due to insufficient value.

Context

Roma are 7th in Serie A with 3 points after one match.
Roma's 4-0 home win over Fiorentina on 24 August included 17 shots and 8 on target. That attacking output suggests they can create chances against Atalanta, but one match is a small sample.
- Roma beat Fiorentina 4-0 at home on 2026-08-24.
- Roma had 17 shots and 8 on target in that match.
Roma announced the permanent signing of a midfielder from Atalanta on 30 August, with the player set to wear number 15.
The move changes the central-midfield selection pool for both clubs ahead of this meeting. Roma gain a new option, while Atalanta lose a long-serving player, though the immediate tactical effect depends on whether the midfielder is involved so soon after the transfer.
- Roma announced the permanent signing from Atalanta on 30 August.
- Roma said the midfielder made 445 appearances for Atalanta and will wear number 15.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 14:12 · Europe/BucharestAS Roma — Marten De Roon signs for Romawww.asroma.com · 30 Aug 2026ANSA — De Roon joins Romawww.ansa.it · 30 Aug 2026
Atalanta are 9th in Serie A with 3 points after one match.
Atalanta's 2-1 home win over Sassuolo on 23 August included 14 shots and 7 on target. They also won a Conference League match away on 27 August, so they arrive with competitive rhythm.
- Atalanta beat Sassuolo 2-1 at home on 2026-08-23.
- Atalanta had 14 shots and 7 on target in that match.
Roma defender D. Rensch has started 4 of the last 5 available fixtures and is scheduled to return to full training on Tuesday.
His availability remains uncertain until that training session is completed. If he is not cleared, Roma's defensive cover is thinner, but the club has not confirmed any alternative plan.
- Gian Piero Gasperini said Rensch and Lorenzo Pellegrini were Roma’s only absentees ahead of the Lecce match.
- Gasperini said Rensch would return to full training on Tuesday.
- D. Rensch started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 14:12 · Europe/BucharestAS Roma — Gasperini’s pre-Lecce press conferencewww.asroma.com · 30 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Roma

1.85fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Roma's home strength and Atalanta's inconsistent away form give Roma a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Roma or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Roma's home strength and H2H resilience make them unlikely to lose, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's strong home form and Atalanta's inconsistent away performances give Roma a slight edge, supported by H2H home advantage.
- Roma won 4-0 at home vs Fiorentina in their only Serie A match this season.
- Roma averaged 2.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Atalanta lost 0-1 at home to Bologna and drew 1-1 away at Fiorentina in recent Serie A away matches.
- H2H last 5: Roma won 2, drew 2, lost 1 (including a 1-1 draw in April 2026).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's home strength and H2H resilience make them unlikely to lose, so double chance Roma or Draw is well supported.
- Roma are unbeaten in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings (2W, 2D).
- Roma won their only home league match 4-0.
- Atalanta have not won away in Serie A this season (0W, 0D, 0L in 0 away games, but recent away form includes a loss and a draw).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRoma or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's tendency to start strong at home gives them a slight first-half edge, but Atalanta's resilience keeps confidence low.
- Roma led at half-time in 53% of last 15 matches.
- Atalanta trailed at half-time in only 13% of last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: Roma led at half-time in 2 matches, Atalanta in 1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostRomaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma could control the match from start to finish, but Atalanta's ability to stay in games makes this a low-probability outcome.
- Roma won both halves in their last home match (4-0 vs Fiorentina).
- Atalanta have not lost a first half in recent away matches but have struggled overall.
- H2H: Roma led at half-time and won full-time in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostRoma/RomaEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roma's attacking output at home and Atalanta's occasional defensive lapses suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Roma's last 5 Serie A matches: 4-0, 2-0, 3-2, 4-0, 2-0 (average 3.4 total goals).
- Atalanta's last 5 Serie A matches: 2-1, 1-1, 0-1, 3-2, 0-0 (average 2.2 total goals).
- Combined average goals in H2H last 5: 2.2, but Roma's home scoring is high.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding, making BTTS a reasonable outcome.
- Roma scored in 4 of last 5 home matches, conceding in 2.
- Atalanta scored in 4 of last 5 away matches, conceding in 3.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Roma averaged 1.1 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
- Atalanta averaged 0.7 first-half goals in last 15 matches.
- In H2H last 5, first-half goals occurred in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are plausible given both teams' attacking intent, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Roma's second-half scoring is strong, with multiple goals in recent home wins.
- Atalanta's second-half defense has been leaky at times.
- Combined second-half goals in H2H last 5 average 1.2.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Roma averaged 5.5 corners per match, Atalanta 5.1.
- Combined average corners in recent matches: Roma 5.5 + Atalanta 5.1 = 10.6.
- H2H last 5: total corners averaged 9.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams shoot on target regularly, but the line is high relative to H2H trends, so confidence is low.
- Roma averaged 5.5 shots on target per match, Atalanta 4.7.
- Combined average shots on target: 10.2.
- Recent H2H matches saw lower shot on target totals.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match could see a few cards given the competitive nature, but the line is close to average.
- Roma averaged 1.5 yellow cards per match, Atalanta 1.6.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.1, but red cards occasionally inflate totals.
- H2H last 5: total cards averaged 3.8.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%