Bologna vs Roma: result, stats and head-to-head

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and away scoring edge favor Roma, but their structural away record is middling and the front-office turmoil (Core 5: Motivation/Stakes + Injuries-adjacent instability) caps confidence — hence a modest edge rather than a strong one.
- Roma W3 D2 L0 in last 5 meetings vs Bologna; last Serie A meeting Roma 1-0 Bologna (2025-08-23)
- Bologna home record: 6W-2D-8L, only 16 goals scored in 16 home matches this Serie A season
- Roma away record: 7W-1D-8L, 19 GF / 19 GA in 16 away matches — inconsistent on travel
- Ranieri-Gasperini public dispute (April 16-17, 2026) is a high-impact disruption entering the fixture
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combines Roma's strong H2H edge with Bologna's weak home record, reducing the downside scenario — the Core 5 H2H psychology signal is concrete and time-anchored.
- Roma unbeaten in last 5 H2H (W3 D2)
- Bologna lost 8 of 16 home Serie A games this season (home record 6W-2D-8L)
- Bologna's last 5 matches include 3 losses (Juventus, Aston Villa home and away)
- Roma rank 6th with 58 pts vs Bologna 8th with 48 pts
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or RomaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The motivation/stakes disruption on Roma's side (Core 5) plus Bologna's home resilience in recent H2H draws makes a +0.5 Bologna line plausible but not strong.
- Bologna at home won 6 of 16 Serie A home games; lost 8
- Roma away drew 1 in 16 matches — rarely settle for draws
- Last Serie A meeting at Bologna in Jan 2025 ended 2-2
- Roma's internal turmoil (Ranieri/Gasperini, April 16-17) may suppress away performance
BetBugs · Handicap ResultlostBologna +0.5Estimated chance48%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bologna's weak scoring run (Core 5: tactical/offensive output) is the main driver; BTTS-No is the slightly more likely side but confidence is low given Roma's away defensive fragility.
- Bologna averaged only 0.9 goals per game across last 10 matches
- Bologna failed to score in 2 of last 5 (Juventus 0-2, Aston Villa 0-4)
- Roma conceded 10 goals in 17 home games but 19 in 16 away games — leakier on the road
- Roma's last Serie A meetings vs Bologna: two clean sheets (1-0 in Aug 2025; 3-0 earlier)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined averages sum near the 2.5 line but Bologna's sluggish attack and Roma's control-oriented away profile tilt slightly to Under — Core 5: tactical matchup on a low-scoring home side.
- Bologna averages 0.9 goals for and 1.5 against (last 10)
- Roma averages 1.8 goals for and 1.6 against (last 10)
- Roma 1-0 Bologna in last Serie A meeting (Aug 2025); Bologna 2-2 Roma in Jan 2025
- Bologna first-half goals average 0.4 — low early tempo
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' first-half averages are well below 1.5 and Roma especially tends to avoid early concession (Core 5: tactical matchup — cautious openings).
- Bologna first-half goals scored: 0.4 avg, conceded 0.5 avg (last 10)
- Roma first-half goals scored: 0.7 avg, conceded 0.4 avg (last 10)
- Bologna trailing at HT only 30% of last 10; leading 30%
- Roma leading at HT 30%, trailing 10% — cautious openings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roma's H2H defensive edge vs Bologna and Bologna's blank sheets in recent games support a moderate clean-sheet chance, tempered by Roma's so-so away defense (Core 5: H2H psychology).
- Roma kept clean sheet in last Serie A trip to Bologna (1-0, Aug 2025)
- Bologna scored 0 goals in 2 of last 5 (vs Juventus, Aston Villa)
- Roma away defensive record: 19 GA in 16 matches (1.19/game) — moderate
- Roma clean sheets in home record strong (10 GA in 17) but away form weaker
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBologna not to scoreEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roma score regularly and have scored in every recent H2H (Core 5: H2H psychology + offensive consistency), with Bologna's home defense not particularly stingy.
- Roma scored in 4 of last 5 matches (1, 3, 2, 1, 1 goals)
- Roma's away scoring: 19 goals in 16 games (1.19/game)
- Bologna's home defense conceded 18 goals in 16 home games
- Roma scored in all 5 of last H2H meetings with Bologna
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonRoma Over 0.5 goalsEstimated chance72%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent corner production sits below double-digit totals; Bologna's recent samples are particularly low (Core 5: tactical matchup — neither side is corner-heavy).
- Bologna corner average: 4.1 for / 4.2 against (last 10)
- Roma corner average: 4.6 for / 5.0 against (last 10)
- Combined avg ~8.7 corners per game, below 10.5
- Bologna recorded only 1, 2, 4 corners in 3 of last 5 games
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides foul and book at a rate giving combined expected yellows ~3.1 plus foul intensity from a fresh, emotionally charged H2H (Core 5: H2H psychology + tactical intensity).
- Bologna yellow card avg: 1.5; Roma yellow card avg: 1.6 (last 10)
- Both teams picked up a red card in one of the last 5 games
- Bologna fouls avg 12.4; Roma fouls avg 12.5 — high foul volume match
- Recent Europa League H2H Roma 3-4 Bologna (March 2026) shows rivalry heat
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined SOT averages 6.6 but Roma's recent upward variance (9 vs Atalanta) and Bologna's steady shot volume lean slightly over (Core 5: tactical matchup).
- Bologna shots on target avg: 3.3 (last 10)
- Roma shots on target avg: 3.3 (last 10)
- Roma had 9 shots on target vs Atalanta most recent game
- Bologna generated 13.4 total shots per game (last 10)
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance56%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Bologna	33	14	6	13	42-39	48	LWWLW
6	Roma Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	33	18	4	11	46-29	58	DWLWL

Bologna0Roma2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Roma Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bologna

Roma

Squad & Injuries

Bologna

Roma