- Roma list Artem Dovbyk out with a groin injury and Evan Ferguson out with an ankle injury.
- Roma also lose Lorenzo Pellegrini to a thigh injury and N. El Aynaoui to yellow-card suspension.
- Fiorentina list Moise Kean out with a calf injury ahead of kickoff.
- Fiorentina also have defender-related absences around N. Fortini and F. Parisi, with L. Balbo marked questionable.
Roma - Fiorentina
🇮🇹 Serie AFinished
Monday, May 4, 2026 at 18:45
Finished SnapshotFT4-0HT 3-0
FinishedSettled
Predictions
8W · 2L · 0P
80%
Edges
1W · 4L · 0P
20%
Match Stats
Possession
61%-39%
Shots
14-4
Shots on Target
7-1
Corners
4-5
Quick Take
Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.
Roma have the stronger home profile and the sharper H2H signal at the Olimpico, but the more actionable angle is a controlled match script rather than backing a short home favorite. Under 2.5 looks like the best value, with first-half under 1.5 and Fiorentina over 1.5 cards also supported; confirmed lineups remain the main late data gap.
Away Cards Over/UnderOver 1.578%+13.5pp
Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.572%Fair price
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.570%+0.1pp
Context Signals
The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.
Betting Edges
Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
BetBugs probabilities
The model view before price and edge filtering.
Market & pick
Model
Head-to-Head
1W · 2D · 2WW1-2FiorentinavAS RomaOct 5, 2025SA
L1-0AS RomavFiorentinaMay 4, 2025SA
L5-1FiorentinavAS RomaOct 27, 2024SA
D2-2FiorentinavAS RomaMar 10, 2024SA
D1-1AS RomavFiorentinaDec 10, 2023SA
3.2 goals/game avg
League Table
Serie A 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roma Promotion - Conference League (Qualification) | 34 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 48-29 | 61 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 38-45 | 37 |
24pt gap between teams
Recent Form
Roma
W2-0BolognaApr 25SA
D1-1AtalantaApr 18SA
W3-0PisaApr 10SA
L2-5InterApr 5SA
W1-0LecceMar 22SA
L1-2ComoMar 15SA
D1-1BolognaMar 12UEF
L1-2GenoaMar 8SA
D3-3JuventusMar 1SA
W3-0CremoneseFeb 22SA
Fiorentina
D0-0SassuoloApr 26SA
D1-1LecceApr 20SA
W2-1Crystal PalaceApr 16UEF
W1-0LazioApr 13SA
L0-3Crystal PalaceApr 9UEF
W1-0Hellas VeronaApr 4SA
D1-1InterMar 22SA
W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 19UEF
W4-1CremoneseMar 16SA
W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 12UEF
Squad & Injuries
Roma
8 out#9 A. Dovbyk — Groin Injury
#8 N. El Aynaoui — Yellow Cards
#11 E. Ferguson — Ankle Injury
#7 L. Pellegrini — Thigh Injury
#9 A. Dovbyk — Groin Injury
#8 N. El Aynaoui — Yellow Cards
#11 E. Ferguson — Ankle Injury
#7 L. Pellegrini — Thigh Injury
Fiorentina
10 out#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury
#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury
T. Lamptey — Knee Injury
#65 F. Parisi — Inactive
#62 L. Balbo — Injury
#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury
#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury
T. Lamptey — Knee Injury
#65 F. Parisi — Inactive
#62 L. Balbo — Injury