Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Roma4Fiorentina0

HT 3–0Mon 4 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 14–4On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 May 2026, 09:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Roma have the stronger home profile and the sharper H2H signal at the Olimpico, but the more actionable angle is a controlled match script rather than backing a short home favorite.

Under 2.5 looks like the best value, with first-half under 1.5 and Fiorentina over 1.5 cards also supported; confirmed lineups remain the main late data gap.

Context

Roma list Artem Dovbyk out with a groin injury and Evan Ferguson out with an ankle injury.
- Roma also lose Lorenzo Pellegrini to a thigh injury and N. El Aynaoui to yellow-card suspension.
- Fiorentina list Moise Kean out with a calf injury ahead of kickoff.
- Fiorentina also have defender-related absences around N. Fortini and F. Parisi, with L. Balbo marked questionable.
Table snapshot on 2026-05-03 has Roma 6th on 61 points, three points behind 4th.
- Fiorentina sit 15th on 37 points, nine points above the relegation line.
- Kickoff is on 2026-05-04, so both clubs are operating in the late-season Serie A run-in.
The Guardian on 2026-04-20 described Roma as flatlining after their Europa League exit.
- The same report highlighted internal tension after Claudio Ranieri publicly muddied Gian Piero Gasperini's backing.
- The supplied narrative treats that off-field noise as the main counter-signal to an aggressive Roma home-win stance.
Roma are unbeaten in the last five home meetings with Fiorentina.
- The aggregate score across those five matches is 9:2 to Roma.
- Roma kept three clean sheets in that five-game home H2H run.
- Listed Olimpico results are 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 3-1 and 2-0 from November 2020 to May 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes, structural home/away edge, and H2H psychology all lean Roma, while travel/environment specifics are unavailable and Roma's injuries/suspensions plus the April 20 off-field tension keep the estimate at medium confidence.
- Roma are 11W-3D-3L at home with a 27:10 goal split in 17 Serie A home matches in 2025-26.
- Fiorentina are 4W-6D-7L away with an 18:25 goal split in 17 Serie A away matches in 2025-26.
- Roma are unbeaten in the last 5 home H2Hs with Fiorentina: 4W-1D, 9:2 aggregate, three clean sheets (Nov 2020-May 2025).
- Table snapshot on 2026-05-03: Roma are 6th on 61 points, 3 off 4th; Fiorentina are 15th on 37 points, 9 above relegation.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRomaEstimated chance57%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and H2H psychology make an away win the least supported result, and Fiorentina's lower motivational pressure does not provide a strong counter-signal.
- Roma have lost only 3 of 17 Serie A home matches in 2025-26.
- Fiorentina have won only 4 of 17 Serie A away matches in 2025-26.
- Roma are unbeaten in their last 3 listed home league matches: 2W-1D.
- Roma have not lost any of the last 5 home H2Hs with Fiorentina (Nov 2020-May 2025).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRoma or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes and structural home/away edge favor Roma avoiding an early deficit, while Fiorentina's first-half output has not been strong enough to override that.
- Roma are trailing at halftime in only 10% of their last 10 matches.
- Fiorentina are leading at halftime in only 30% of their last 10 matches.
- Roma's last 3 listed home league halftime results are D, W, D.
- Table snapshot on 2026-05-03 shows Roma still within 3 points of 4th place.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRoma or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The tactical matchup edge still supports two goals because Roma's home control usually creates chances and Fiorentina's away defense concedes 1.47 per league trip, but injuries/suspensions on both forward lines stop this from grading higher.
- Roma's last-10 average is 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match.
- 4 of Roma's last 5 listed league matches cleared 1.5 total goals.
- 4 of the last 5 Roma-Fiorentina meetings cleared 1.5 goals (Dec 2023-Oct 2025).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge on Roma's defense plus injuries/suspensions in both attacks point to a controlled scoring band rather than an open game.
- 4 of Roma's last 5 listed league matches stayed under 3.5 goals.
- 4 of Fiorentina's last 5 listed matches across league and Europe stayed under 3.5 goals.
- Roma's 17 home league matches average 2.18 total goals, and Fiorentina's 17 away league matches average 2.53 total goals in 2025-26.
- Roma are missing attackers A. Dovbyk and E. Ferguson plus midfielder L. Pellegrini, while Fiorentina are missing attacker M. Kean (squad report, 2026-05-03).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge, H2H psychology at the Olimpico, and Fiorentina's injuries/suspensions up front all suppress the away scoring ceiling.
- Fiorentina score 1.06 goals per away league match this season (18 in 17).
- Roma concede only 0.59 goals per home league match this season (10 in 17).
- Roma allowed 0 or 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 listed league matches.
- Fiorentina are missing attacker M. Kean, and Roma kept 3 clean sheets in the last 5 home H2Hs vs Fiorentina (Nov 2020-May 2025).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFiorentina under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The tactical matchup edge is toward a cautious opening because both sides post low first-half scoring rates, and Roma's injuries/suspensions reduce early attacking punch.
- Roma average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.3 first-half goals conceded over their last 10 matches.
- Fiorentina average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 first-half goals conceded over their last 10 matches.
- 4 of Roma's last 5 listed matches and 4 of Fiorentina's last 5 listed matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half tactical matchup edge and injuries/suspensions both point away from an early trade of goals, with neither side showing strong first-half BTTS numbers.
- Roma concede only 0.3 first-half goals per match over the last 10.
- Fiorentina concede only 0.4 first-half goals per match over the last 10.
- Only 1 of Roma's last 5 listed matches and 1 of Fiorentina's last 5 listed matches saw both teams score before halftime.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The tactical matchup edge shifts later because both teams generate more goal involvement after halftime, and Roma's stronger motivation/stakes should increase late-game pressure.
- Roma's last-10 averages imply 2.1 goals per match after halftime: 3.2 total goal involvement minus 1.1 first-half involvement.
- Fiorentina's last-10 averages imply 1.4 goals per match after halftime: 2.3 total goal involvement minus 0.9 first-half involvement.
- 4 of Roma's last 5 listed matches and 4 of Fiorentina's last 5 listed matches had at least one second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance74%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and motivation/stakes should force Fiorentina into longer defensive phases, and their existing discipline trend already supports more than one away booking.
- Fiorentina average 2.6 yellow cards over their last 10 matches.
- Fiorentina recorded 2, 4, 5, 3, and 2 yellow cards in their last 5 listed matches across league and Europe.
- Roma draw 12.7 fouls per match on average over the last 10, and the 2026-05-03 table context gives the hosts the stronger result pressure.
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderwonFiorentina over 1.5Estimated chance78%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W1-2FiorentinavAS RomaOct 5, 2025SA

L1-0AS RomavFiorentinaMay 4, 2025SA

L5-1FiorentinavAS RomaOct 27, 2024SA

D2-2FiorentinavAS RomaMar 10, 2024SA

D1-1AS RomavFiorentinaDec 10, 2023SA

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Roma Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	34	19	4	11	48-29	61	WDWLW
15	Fiorentina	34	8	13	13	38-45	37	DDWWD

24pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Roma

W2-0BolognaApr 25SA

D1-1AtalantaApr 18SA

W3-0PisaApr 10SA

L2-5InterApr 5SA

W1-0LecceMar 22SA

L1-2ComoMar 15SA

D1-1BolognaMar 12UEF

L1-2GenoaMar 8SA

D3-3JuventusMar 1SA

W3-0CremoneseFeb 22SA

Fiorentina

D0-0SassuoloApr 26SA

D1-1LecceApr 20SA

W2-1Crystal PalaceApr 16UEF

W1-0LazioApr 13SA

L0-3Crystal PalaceApr 9UEF

W1-0Hellas VeronaApr 4SA

D1-1InterMar 22SA

W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 19UEF

W4-1CremoneseMar 16SA

W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 12UEF

Squad & Injuries

Roma

8 out

Attackers4/11

×#9

×#11

×#9

×#11

Midfielders4/8

×#8

×#7

×#8

×#7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

#9 A. Dovbyk — Groin Injury

#8 N. El Aynaoui — Yellow Cards

#11 E. Ferguson — Ankle Injury

#7 L. Pellegrini — Thigh Injury

#9 A. Dovbyk — Groin Injury

#8 N. El Aynaoui — Yellow Cards

#11 E. Ferguson — Ankle Injury

#7 L. Pellegrini — Thigh Injury

Fiorentina

10 out

Attackers2/8

×#20

Midfielders9

Defenders6/11

×#29

×#65

×#62

×#29

×#65

×#62

Goalkeeper5

#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury

#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury

T. Lamptey — Knee Injury

#65 F. Parisi — Inactive

#62 L. Balbo — Injury

#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury

#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury

T. Lamptey — Knee Injury

#65 F. Parisi — Inactive

#62 L. Balbo — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Under 0.5

Fiorentina over 1.5

Under 3.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Roma

Fiorentina

Squad & Injuries

Roma

Fiorentina