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Roma - Fiorentina
🇮🇹 Serie AUpcoming
Monday, May 4, 2026 at 18:45
Quick Take
Roma have the stronger home profile and the sharper H2H signal at the Olimpico, but the more actionable angle is a controlled match script rather than backing a short home favorite. Under 2.5 looks like the best value, with first-half under 1.5 and Fiorentina over 1.5 cards also supported; confirmed lineups remain the main late data gap.
Away Cards Over/UnderOver 1.5 (Fiorentina)78%+13.5pp
Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.572%+0.0pp
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.570%+0.1pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Home (Roma):Implied 62% already sits above our 57% home-win estimate, and Roma's missing attackers plus live off-field tension remove the cushion on a short favourite.
Double Chance Home or Draw:Implied 85% is materially higher than our 79% estimate, so the market has fully priced the away-loss protection and then some.
1st Half Double Chance Home or Draw:Implied 88% is well above our 81% estimate, and Roma's first halves skew toward draws rather than control, so 1.14 leaves no room for early-variance downside.
Roma have the stronger base case, but the key evidence is venue-specific rather than broad reputation. They are 11-3-3 at home in Serie A with a 27:10 goal split, Fiorentina are only 4-6-7 away with 18:25, and Roma are unbeaten in the last five home meetings with Fiorentina at the Olimpico (4W-1D, 9:2 aggregate). Add the table context on May 3, 2026, with Roma three points off fourth and Fiorentina nine points above the drop, and the urgency clearly sits more heavily with the hosts.
The counter-signal is that this is not a clean, carefree Roma spot.
Recent Form
Roma
W2-0BolognaApr 25SA
D1-1AtalantaApr 18SA
W3-0PisaApr 10SA
L2-5InterApr 5SA
W1-0LecceMar 22SA
L1-2ComoMar 15SA
D1-1BolognaMar 12UEF
L1-2GenoaMar 8SA
D3-3JuventusMar 1SA
W3-0CremoneseFeb 22SA
Fiorentina
D0-0SassuoloApr 26SA
D1-1LecceApr 20SA
W2-1Crystal PalaceApr 16UEF
W1-0LazioApr 13SA
L0-3Crystal PalaceApr 9UEF
W1-0Hellas VeronaApr 4SA
D1-1InterMar 22SA
W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 19UEF
W4-1CremoneseMar 16SA
W2-1Raków CzęstochowaMar 12UEF
League Table
Serie A 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roma Promotion - Conference League (Qualification) | 34 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 48-29 | 61 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 38-45 | 37 |
24pt gap between teams
Head-to-Head
1W · 2D · 2WW1-2FiorentinavAS RomaOct 5, 2025SA
L1-0AS RomavFiorentinaMay 4, 2025SA
L5-1FiorentinavAS RomaOct 27, 2024SA
D2-2FiorentinavAS RomaMar 10, 2024SA
D1-1AS RomavFiorentinaDec 10, 2023SA
3.2 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Roma
8 out#9 A. Dovbyk — Groin Injury
#8 N. El Aynaoui — Yellow Cards
#11 E. Ferguson — Ankle Injury
#7 L. Pellegrini — Thigh Injury
#9 A. Dovbyk — Groin Injury
#8 N. El Aynaoui — Yellow Cards
#11 E. Ferguson — Ankle Injury
#7 L. Pellegrini — Thigh Injury
Fiorentina
10 out#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury
#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury
T. Lamptey — Knee Injury
#65 F. Parisi — Inactive
#62 L. Balbo — Injury
#29 N. Fortini — Back Injury
#20 M. Kean — Calf Injury
T. Lamptey — Knee Injury
#65 F. Parisi — Inactive
#62 L. Balbo — Injury