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Start KristiansandSandefjord

Sun 25 Oct 2026, 16:0025 Oct, 16:00

8Probabilities5Priced5Edges76%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom side Start host Sandefjord with eight points between them, and the recent 3-0 Sandefjord win makes Sandefjord avoiding defeat the likelier result.

Sandefjord's 3W-1D-7L away record and Start's 2-0 home win over Brann keep it from being comfortable. The quoted prices — Sandefjord draw or win at 1.60, Sandefjord to score at 1.22, over 9.5 corners at 1.48, Start over 4.5 corners at 1.43 and a first-half goal at 1.22 — are not worthwhile.

Context

Start have conceded 54 goals in 23 league games and are listed without goalkeeper F. Manojlovic and defenders J. Husebo and K. Tonnesen; Sandefjord's 3-0 September win and Start's 3W-3D-5L home record frame the matchup, while Sandefjord's 3W-1D-7L away record is the counterweight.

The fixture is staged in Kristiansand rather than at a neutral venue, with a fixed artificial-turf setting. That establishes the surface and travel environment both sides will prepare for in this match. No unusual pitch condition or team-specific adjustment is evidenced.
- The fixture is scheduled for 25 October 2026 at 17:00 local time.
- Sparebanken Norge Arena in Kristiansand is the listed venue.
- The listed playing surface is artificial turf.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:45 · Europe/BucharestFixture listingwww.fotball.no · 25 Oct 2026
That is the heaviest defeat in Start's six tracked recent matches and the most on-target attempts they have allowed in that sample. It sharpens the concern around a defence that has conceded 54 goals in 23 league games. The counterpoint is Start's 2-0 home win over Brann on 13 September, when they allowed four shots on target. The Molde result is recent evidence of vulnerability, not proof that the same pattern must repeat in Kristiansand.
- 18 Oct 2026: Start lost 1-6 at Molde in Eliteserien.
- Start conceded 22 shots, 13 on target, and took 10 shots with 3 on target.
Both Lillestrom goals came in the first half, leaving Sandefjord to chase a game in which they had far more shot volume. It is a caution against assuming Sandefjord will turn attempts into goals smoothly. Their first-half scoring average is 0.40 goals per game across 15 tracked matches, while their second-half average is 1.53. The Lillestrom result is recent evidence of that uneven scoring pattern, not a verdict on the return fixture.
- 18 Oct 2026: Sandefjord lost 0-2 at home to Lillestrom in Eliteserien.
- Sandefjord took 21 shots, 7 on target; Lillestrom took 10 shots, 6 on target.
- Both Lillestrom goals came in the first half.
That result is the clearest recent evidence that Start can make home advantage count, and it came with a clean sheet. It sits against a home league record of 3W-3D-5L with 19 goals conceded in 11 games, so the performance has not been a regular home standard. Sandefjord's away record of 3W-1D-7L gives Start a route into the match, even though the table favours the visitors. The Brann win is a counterweight to the 6-1 defeat at Molde, not a form reversal.
- 13 Sep 2026: Start beat Brann 2-0 at home in Eliteserien.
- Start took 22 shots, 6 on target, and 9 corners; Brann took 14 shots, 4 on target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Lean

Draw or Sandefjord

1.60fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 62.5%

−1.5ppshort

Sandefjord are higher in the table and beat Start 3-0 last month, so avoiding defeat is more likely than a Start win.

Away Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sandefjord over 0.5

1.22fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 82%

−6.0ppshort

Start's defense has been the league's leakiest and is missing goalkeeper and defender options, so Sandefjord should find at least one goal.

Corners Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 9.5

1.48fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 67.6%

−6.6ppshort

Both teams' corner profiles point to a match around ten corners.

Home CornersUncertainty band: Strong lean

Start Kristiansand over 4.5

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.9%

−4.9ppshort

Start generate enough corners at home and Sandefjord concede many on the road.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 82%

−18.0ppshort

Start's recent first halves usually have a goal and their defense is leaky early.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 61%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Sandefjord are higher in the table and beat Start 3-0 last month, so avoiding defeat is more likely than a Start win.
- Sandefjord sit 13th on 24 points; Start are 16th on 16 points.
- Sandefjord won the 20 September meeting 3-0.
- Start's home league record is 3W-3D-5L with 19 goals conceded in 11.
- Sandefjord's away league record is only 3W-1D-7L.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or SandefjordMarket price1.60Estimated chance61%

Goals3 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Start's defense has been the league's leakiest and is missing goalkeeper and defender options, so Sandefjord should find at least one goal.
- Start have conceded 54 goals in 23 league matches.
- Start kept one clean sheet in 14 tracked competitive matches.
- Start are missing goalkeeper F. Manojlovic and defenders J. Husebo and K. Tonnesen.
- Sandefjord have scored in 10 of 15 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalSandefjord over 0.5Market price1.22Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides do more scoring after the break, with Sandefjord especially strong in second halves.
- Start average 0.86 second-half goals for and 1.14 against.
- Sandefjord average 1.53 second-half goals for and 0.60 against.
- Both teams have regularly produced second-half goals in recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Start's recent first halves usually have a goal and their defense is leaky early.
- Start average 0.71 first-half goals for and 1.00 against.
- Sandefjord average 0.40 first-half goals for and 0.67 against.
- Five of Start's last six tracked first halves contained a goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.22Estimated chance64%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 74%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both defenses allow plenty of on-target attempts, so combined shots on target should clear the low line.
- Start matches average 3.82 shots on target for and 5.91 against.
- Sandefjord matches average 4.00 for and 5.54 against.
- Recent tracked totals include 16, 12, 13 and 14 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 7.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams' corner profiles point to a match around ten corners.
- Start matches average 10.55 total corners.
- Sandefjord matches average 10.31 total corners.
- Start average 5.64 corners and concede 4.91; Sandefjord average 4.69 and concede 5.62.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Market price1.48Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Start generate enough corners at home and Sandefjord concede many on the road.
- Start average 6.17 home corners.
- Start average 5.64 corners overall.
- Sandefjord concede 5.62 corners overall and 6.5 away.
BetBugs · Home CornersStart Kristiansand over 4.5Market price1.43Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' bookings averages sit around the line and the last meeting was card-heavy.
- Start average 1.70 yellow cards; Sandefjord average 2.31.
- Opponent yellow-card averages are 2.40 for Start and 1.92 for Sandefjord.
- The September meeting produced six cards including a Start red.
- Red-card averages are 0.20 for Start and 0.43 for Sandefjord.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 4.5Estimated chance55%