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Start KristiansandBrann

Sun 13 Sept 2026, 15:0013 Sept, 15:00

14Probabilities0Priced4Edges75%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Brann are favourites away to bottom-placed Start, with a 55% win probability offering slight value at 1.95.

The double chance Draw or Brann at 1.35 is a high-confidence but low-value play. Avoid goals markets and first-half double chance, where odds are overpriced relative to model estimates.

Context

Start lose suspended defender Deni Dashaev, Brann lose suspended striker Noah Holm, and Brann midfielder Eggert Gudmundsson is a fitness watch, while Start's bottom-place survival incentive adds urgency.

Start are in the relegation zone and have struggled all season.
They have lost 12 of 19 league matches and have the worst goal difference in the division. At home they have won only twice in nine attempts, so this match is important for their survival hopes.
- Start are 16th with 13 points from 19 matches.
- They are six points behind 14th-placed KFUM Oslo.
- Their home record is 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses.
Start defender Deni Dashaev started the 4 September match at Aalesund in an unchanged side.
The current fixture page lists him as suspended for this match, so Start must change a defensive starter. The replacement is not specified, leaving uncertainty about how the back line will be reshaped against Brann.
- Start's official team announcement named Deni Dasahev in the side that faced Aalesund on 4 September.
- The current Start-Brann fixture page lists Deni Dashaev as suspended for 13 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:34 · Europe/BucharestStart: These start against Aalesundwww.ikstart.no · 4 Sep 2026FotMob: Start vs Brann availabilitywww.fotmob.com · 10 Sep 2026
Brann striker Noah Holm was booked against Lillestrøm after being one yellow card from suspension.
The fixture page confirms he is suspended for this trip, removing a forward option from Brann's matchday selection. Brann will need to adjust their attacking unit, though the specific replacement is not identified.
- Brann said Noah Holm was one yellow card from a suspension before the Lillestrøm match.
- Brann's report of the 5 September match records a yellow card for Holm.
- The current Start-Brann fixture page lists Noah Jean Holm as suspended for 13 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:34 · Europe/BucharestBrann: Before Lillestrømwww.brann.no · 5 Sep 2026Brann: Loss to Lillestrømwww.brann.no · 5 Sep 2026FotMob: Start vs Brann availabilitywww.fotmob.com · 10 Sep 2026
Start are bottom of Eliteserien with 13 points from 19 matches, five points behind Aalesund in 15th.
The relegation gap gives Start a clear competitive incentive to pursue points at home rather than treat the match as a routine mid-season fixture. This survival pressure may influence how aggressively Start approach the game, though it does not guarantee a particular result.
- The Eliteserien table lists Start 16th with 13 points from 19 matches.
- Aalesund are 15th on 18 points from 19 matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:34 · Europe/BucharestEliteserien tablewww.eliteserien.no · 10 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Combined averages of 3.5 goals per match and Start's defensive struggles support Over 2.5, but odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's superior away form and recent H2H dominance give them the edge, though Start's home desperation adds uncertainty.
- Brann away record: 3W-2D-4L, 19 goals scored, 14 conceded in 9 away matches
- Start home record: 2W-3D-4L, 10 goals scored, 15 conceded in 9 home matches
- H2H last 5: Brann won 3, Start won 1, 1 draw; Brann won most recent meeting 2-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerBrannEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Start's poor overall record and Brann's stronger form make a Brann win or draw highly likely.
- Start have lost 12 of 19 league matches this season
- Brann have won 8 of 19 league matches
- H2H: Brann unbeaten in last 3 meetings (2W, 1D)
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or BrannEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann's tendency to lead at half-time and Start's tendency to trail give Brann a slight first-half edge.
- Brann lead at half-time in 53% of matches
- Start trail at half-time in 53% of matches
- Brann average 0.7 first-half goals scored vs Start's 0.7 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerBrannEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann's superior squad depth and Start's defensive vulnerabilities could lead to a Brann second-half win.
- Brann have a positive goal difference in away matches (+5)
- Start have a negative goal difference at home (-5)
- Brann's attacking depth likely to exploit Start's tired defense
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerBrannEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann leading at half-time and full-time is plausible given Start's struggles, but confidence is low due to variance.
- Brann lead at half-time in 53% of matches
- Brann win 42% of matches overall
- Start lose 63% of matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleBrann/BrannEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann winning both halves is possible but unlikely given Start's home resilience in some matches.
- Brann average 0.7 first-half goals and 1.2 second-half goals
- Start concede 1.1 first-half goals and 1.3 second-half goals
- Brann's away form shows ability to dominate weaker teams
BetBugs · Win Both HalvesBrannEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brann or draw at half-time is likely given Start's tendency to trail and Brann's strong first-half record.
- Brann lead at half-time in 53% of matches
- Start trail at half-time in 53% of matches
- Draw at half-time occurs in 27% of Brann's matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or BrannEstimated chance65%

Goals5 outcomes · top 70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages suggest a high-scoring match, especially with Start's defensive struggles.
- Start average 1.1 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match
- Brann average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match
- Combined average goals per match: 3.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Start's need to attack for survival and Brann's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Start have scored in 12 of 19 league matches
- Brann have conceded in 14 of 19 league matches
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Start average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded
- Brann average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.8
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Start chasing the game and Brann's attacking quality, the second half could see multiple goals.
- Start average 1.1 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match overall
- Brann average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall
- Second-half goals likely as teams push for result
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is less likely than at least one team scoring, given the averages.
- Start average 0.7 first-half goals scored, Brann average 0.5 conceded
- Brann average 0.7 first-half goals scored, Start average 1.1 conceded
- Combined first-half BTTS probability is moderate
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 outcomes · top 50%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest over 9.5 corners is plausible, but variance is high.
- Start average 4.2 corners per match, Brann average 6.8 corners per match
- Combined average corners: 11.0
- Both teams tend to generate corners in their matches
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is near the line, making over 8.5 a coin flip.
- Start average 4.0 shots on target per match
- Brann average 4.8 shots on target per match
- Combined average shots on target: 8.8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

Start Kristiansand has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 recent projections

Start Kristiansand has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 recent projections, a 67% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability for fulfilled predictions was 63.8%, slightly above the overall average of 62.5%. Away matches have been more productive, with 3 of 4 Over 2.5 projections fulfilled compared to 1 of 2 at home.

Recent evidence for Start Kristiansand6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Eliteserien