EliteserienFull time

Predictions graded

Fredrikstad1Sandefjord0

HT 1–0Sat 1 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 14–15On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 07:49 · Europe/Bucharest

The data strongly supports a low-scoring draw, with Fredrikstad's midfield turnover and Sandefjord's defensive changes adding uncertainty.

The best value lies in backing the draw at 3.60 (7-point edge) and under 2.5 goals at 2.15 (13.5-point edge), while the half-time draw at 2.30 offers a standout 17-point edge given both teams' slow starts and recent H2H goalless first halves.

Context

Shein was described as an important player and had 15 goal contributions in 49 appearances.
- Jezierski joined on 23 July, just nine days before this match, and his eligibility was not confirmed.
- Fredrikstad's midfield structure is likely disrupted, affecting both defensive cover and attacking transitions.
Kristiansen made 61 appearances for Sandefjord and refused a contract extension before being sold.
- Holten is a 197cm Norway U21 captain but joined only on 17 July, giving him limited training time with the team.
- The centre-back partnership is new and may lack understanding, increasing the chance of defensive errors.
Sandefjord hosted Bodø/Glimt on 26 July, giving them five full days before this match.
- Fredrikstad played away to Rosenborg on 27 July, leaving only four days and travel fatigue.
- Short rest and travel can reduce pressing intensity and increase second-half fatigue for Fredrikstad.
Last two league H2Hs: 1-1 (May 2026) and 0-0 (Oct 2025).
- Fredrikstad are unbeaten in the last five Eliteserien H2Hs (2W, 3D).
- Three of the last five H2Hs had under 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in only two of those five.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology strongly points to a tight, low-scoring draw, with the last two meetings ending level and Fredrikstad unbeaten in five league H2Hs. Both sides have similar middling form and defensive vulnerabilities, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 Fredrikstad win, 1 Sandefjord win; last 2 meetings ended 1-1 and 0-0.
- Fredrikstad home record this season: 3W-1D-2L (9 goals scored, 8 conceded in 6 matches).
- Sandefjord away record: 2W-0D-5L (7 scored, 12 conceded in 7 matches).
- Both teams average ~1 goal scored per game and concede ~1.5 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fredrikstad's strong H2H record and Sandefjord's poor away form support a home-or-draw outcome. The venue edge and historical psychology give Fredrikstad a solid chance to avoid defeat.
- Fredrikstad unbeaten in last 5 Eliteserien H2Hs (2W, 3D).
- Fredrikstad home record: 3W-1D-2L; Sandefjord away: 2W-0D-5L.
- Sandefjord lost 5 of 7 away matches this season.
- Fredrikstad have a slight home advantage on artificial turf, which Sandefjord also use, reducing unfamiliarity.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFredrikstad or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high probability of a goalless or low-scoring first half, combined with both teams' tendency to be level at the break in H2Hs, makes a draw at half-time the most likely outcome.
- Fredrikstad half-time record: 13% lead, 47% trail, 40% draw.
- Sandefjord half-time record: 27% lead, 53% trail, 20% draw.
- Last 2 H2Hs were 0-0 at half-time.
- Both teams average under 0.5 first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams evenly matched and likely to cancel each other out, the second half could also end level. However, the low confidence reflects the inherent variability of second-half outcomes.
- Second-half goal difference: Fredrikstad -0.1 per game, Sandefjord -0.1 per game.
- Both teams have similar second-half performance metrics.
- Recent H2Hs have been evenly matched in second halves (1-1 draw last meeting).
- No clear second-half dominance from either side in season data.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw is a plausible full-time result, the combination of a half-time draw and full-time draw is less common. The H2H pattern supports it, but the low base rate keeps confidence low.
- Last 2 H2Hs: 0-0 at half-time, both ended in draws.
- Fredrikstad home draws: 1 in 6 matches; Sandefjord away draws: 0 in 7.
- Both teams have a high percentage of half-time draws.
- Overall draw probability is moderate, but HT/FT double is a specific outcome.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles and recent H2Hs have been tight. The combination of mediocre attacks and the draw-heavy H2H pattern suggests a low-scoring affair.
- Last 2 H2Hs: 1-1 and 0-0; 3 of last 5 H2Hs had under 2.5 goals.
- Fredrikstad average 1.1 goals scored, 1.5 conceded overall; Sandefjord 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded.
- Fredrikstad home matches average 2.83 total goals (9 scored, 8 conceded in 6 games).
- Sandefjord away matches average 2.71 total goals (7 scored, 12 conceded in 7 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have leaky defenses and have shown they can score against each other. The pattern of both teams finding the net in recent H2Hs and their respective home/away scoring records supports BTTS.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2Hs.
- Fredrikstad scored in 5 of 6 home matches this season; Sandefjord scored in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in 5 of 6 home matches; Sandefjord conceded in all 7 away matches.
- Both teams have negative goal differences and concede regularly.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, with low first-half goal averages and a history of goalless first halves in recent H2Hs. The data strongly points to a cautious opening period.
- Fredrikstad average 0.5 first-half goals scored, 0.8 conceded; Sandefjord 0.4 scored, 0.8 conceded.
- Last 2 H2Hs: 0-0 at half-time in both matches.
- Fredrikstad led at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 47%.
- Sandefjord led at half-time in 27%, trailed in 53%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While first halves are typically tight, the second half sees more goals as fatigue and tactical adjustments kick in. The data suggests a moderate chance of at least two second-half goals.
- Fredrikstad average 0.6 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.5 first half); Sandefjord 0.6 (1.0 - 0.4).
- Both teams concede more in the second half: Fredrikstad 0.7 (1.5 - 0.8), Sandefjord 0.7 (1.5 - 0.8).
- Last H2H had both goals in the second half (1-1 draw).
- Matches tend to open up after half-time as teams push for a result.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The expected cagey, low-scoring match typically produces fewer corners. Recent H2H corner totals have been under 9.5, and both teams' averages are not high enough to consistently push over.
- Fredrikstad average 4.4 corners per game; Sandefjord 5.7.
- Combined average corners: 10.1, but recent H2Hs: 5, 8, 7 corners total.
- Fredrikstad home corners: ~4.5; Sandefjord away corners: ~5.5.
- Both teams tend to have lower corner counts in tighter matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages suggest a slight lean towards over 3.5 cards, but the low confidence reflects the variability and the fact that not all matches exceed this line.
- Fredrikstad average 2.0 yellow cards per game; Sandefjord 2.2.
- Combined average: 4.2 cards per game.
- Recent H2Hs: 5, 4, 3 cards.
- Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, with occasional spikes.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

D1-1SandefjordvFredrikstadMay 25, 2026ELI

D0-0SandefjordvFredrikstadOct 26, 2025ELI

W3-1FredrikstadvSandefjordApr 21, 2025ELI

D2-2SandefjordvFredrikstadFeb 15, 2025FRI

W0-1SandefjordvFredrikstadDec 1, 2024ELI

Fredrikstad unbeaten in 5 meetingsFredrikstad: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Fredrikstad	13	4	2	7	15-23	14	LLWDW
11	Sandefjord	14	4	3	7	13-20	15	LLDLD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Fredrikstad

L0-1Bodo/GlimtJul 17ELI

L0-2LillestromJul 11ELI

L1-3ValerengaJul 4FRI

D0-0IF ElfsborgJun 28FRI

D1-1Ham-KamJun 20FRI

W2-1StartMay 29ELI

D1-1SandefjordMay 25ELI

W2-1Ham-KamMay 16ELI

L1-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMay 9ELI

L1-3BrannMay 2ELI

L1-2VikingApr 25ELI

L0-2Kristiansund BKApr 19ELI

D1-1ValerengaApr 12ELI

W3-2AalesundApr 7ELI

W3-1KFUM OsloMar 22ELI

Sandefjord

L0-3Bodo/GlimtJul 26ELI

L1-2VikingJul 18ELI

D2-2Ham-KamJul 12ELI

L1-2MoldeMay 30ELI

D1-1FredrikstadMay 25ELI

L1-3LillestromMay 16ELI

W2-0Kristiansund BKMay 10ELI

W1-0AalesundMay 3ELI

L1-3TromsoApr 26ELI

D0-0RosenborgApr 18ELI

W1-0BrannApr 12ELI

W2-1KFUM OsloApr 7ELI

D2-2StromsgodsetMar 27FRI

L0-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMar 22ELI

L0-1ValerengaMar 15ELI

Squad & Injuries

Fredrikstad

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Sandefjord

32 available

Attackers5

Midfielders15

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Fredrikstad or Draw

Under 1.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Fredrikstad

Fredrikstad at half-time / Fredrikstad at full-time

Under 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Fredrikstad

Sandefjord

Squad & Injuries

Fredrikstad

Sandefjord