EliteserienFull time

Predictions graded

Sandefjord0Brann0

HT 0–0Sun 30 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 20–13On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 07:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Brann are the likelier winner, but the odds offer no value.

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.05, while Over 2.5 total goals, BTTS Yes, and Over 0.5 first-half goals are all overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Sandefjord are 13th in the Eliteserien with 18 points from 17 matches. The relegation line is 14th place, currently held by Kristiansund BK with 15 points.
This match matters for Sandefjord because a loss could leave them level on points with the relegation zone if other results go against them. They have won only two of eight home matches this season, so they cannot rely on home advantage. Brann are a stronger side on paper, but Sandefjord's need for points may make them more urgent.
- Sandefjord are 13th with 18 points, three points above 14th-placed Kristiansund BK (15 points).
- Sandefjord have won only 2 of 8 home matches this season.
Brann are 6th in the Eliteserien with 25 points from 17 matches. Their away record is 3 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in 8 away games.
Brann have struggled on the road, losing half of their away matches. They have conceded 14 goals in those 8 away games, an average of 1.75 per game. Sandefjord have been poor at home, but Brann's away vulnerability could make this match more competitive than the table suggests.
- Brann's away record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in 8 away matches.
- Brann have conceded 14 goals in 8 away matches.
The most recent head-to-head match was on 12 April 2026, when Sandefjord won 1-0 away at Brann.
Sandefjord's win in April was their first away win against Brann in recent meetings. However, Brann won the previous meeting at Sandefjord 3-0 in September 2025. The head-to-head record is mixed, so this match could go either way.
- 12 April 2026: Brann 0-1 Sandefjord (Eliteserien).
- 20 September 2025: Sandefjord 0-3 Brann (Eliteserien).
Brann's core XI played a Conference League play-off second leg against PAOK on 27 August, three days before this match.
Seven starters completed the 3-2 win, with three others substituted after 68 or 80 minutes. The short recovery window may lead to rotation or reduced pressing intensity away to Sandefjord.
- Brann won the Conference League play-off second leg 3-2 against PAOK on 27 August.
- The official team report lists seven starters as completing the match; three others were substituted after 68 or 80 minutes.
- Brann used a 4-3-3 in the PAOK match.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 11:06 · Europe/BucharestBrann qualify after PAOK play-offwww.brann.no · 27 Aug 2026Brann's PAOK starting teamwww.brann.no · 27 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Brann

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Brann's superior away scoring and Sandefjord's poor recent form give the visitors an edge, though Sandefjord's artificial turf and recent H2H win add uncertainty.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Brann

1.38fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Sandefjord's low home win rate and Brann's decent away form make a Brann win or draw the most likely combined outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Brann's away matches average 4.1 total goals, but Sandefjord's home matches average only 1.9; the combined average is 3.0, making the 55% estimate too low relative to the 67.6% implied by odds.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 5 of 8 Sandefjord home matches and 6 of 8 Brann away matches, but the combined BTTS rate is only 60%, below the 69.9% implied by odds.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average around 0.5-0.7 first-half goals, but the combined probability of at least one first-half goal is only 65%, far below the 82% implied by odds.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann's superior away scoring and Sandefjord's poor recent form give the visitors an edge, though Sandefjord's artificial turf and recent H2H win add uncertainty.
- Brann away record: 3W-1D-4L, 19 goals scored, 14 conceded in 8 away matches
- Sandefjord home record: 2W-3D-3L, 6 goals scored, 9 conceded in 8 home matches
- Sandefjord last 5 league form: WLLLL, 2 goals scored, 8 conceded
- Brann last 5 league form: WWLWW, 11 goals scored, 7 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBrannEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sandefjord's low home win rate and Brann's decent away form make a Brann win or draw the most likely combined outcome.
- Sandefjord home win rate: 25% (2 wins in 8 home matches)
- Brann away loss rate: 50% (4 losses in 8 away matches)
- Sandefjord have drawn 3 of 8 home matches
- Brann have drawn 1 of 8 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BrannEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann's tendency to lead at half time and Sandefjord's tendency to trail give Brann a slight edge, but low confidence due to variance.
- Brann leading at half time in 47% of matches
- Sandefjord trailing at half time in 47% of matches
- Brann first half goal difference: +0.0 (0.7 scored, 0.7 conceded)
- Sandefjord first half goal difference: -0.1 (0.5 scored, 0.6 conceded)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBrannEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brann winning both halves is possible but not highly probable given Sandefjord's home resilience.
- Brann have led at half time and won in 4 of 8 away matches
- Sandefjord have trailed at half time and lost in 3 of 8 home matches
- Brann's away win rate: 37.5%
- Sandefjord's home loss rate: 37.5%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBrann/BrannEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brann's away games are high-scoring and Sandefjord's recent matches have seen goals, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Brann away matches average 4.1 total goals (19 scored + 14 conceded in 8 matches)
- Sandefjord home matches average 1.9 total goals (6 scored + 9 conceded in 8 matches)
- Brann's last 5 league matches: 3, 5, 5, 3, 3 total goals
- Sandefjord's last 5 league matches: 3, 1, 1, 3, 2 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS likely.
- Brann have scored in 7 of 8 away matches
- Sandefjord have scored in 5 of 8 home matches
- Brann have conceded in 6 of 8 away matches
- Sandefjord have conceded in 6 of 8 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Sandefjord first half goals: 0.5 average, conceded 0.6 average
- Brann first half goals: 0.7 average, conceded 0.7 average
- Sandefjord trailing at half time in 47% of matches
- Brann leading at half time in 47% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive, especially for Brann, supporting over 1.5 second half goals.
- Brann away matches average 2.4 second half goals (estimated from total and first half)
- Sandefjord home matches average 1.0 second half goals (estimated)
- Brann's last 5 matches: 2, 3, 3, 2, 2 second half goals
- Sandefjord's last 5 matches: 2, 0, 0, 2, 1 second half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 11 total corners per match, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Sandefjord average corners: 5.4, opponent corners: 6.0
- Brann average corners: 6.0, opponent corners: 5.0
- Combined average corners in Sandefjord matches: 11.4
- Combined average corners in Brann matches: 11.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages hover around 8-9, making over 8.5 a near coin flip.
- Sandefjord average shots on target: 4.0, opponent: 5.0
- Brann average shots on target: 4.0, opponent: 4.0
- Combined average shots on target in Sandefjord matches: 9.0
- Combined average shots on target in Brann matches: 8.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4 total cards per match, slightly favoring over 3.5.
- Sandefjord average yellow cards: 2.0, opponent: 2.0
- Brann average yellow cards: 1.8, opponent: 2.0
- Combined average cards in Sandefjord matches: 4.0
- Combined average cards in Brann matches: 3.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 34% vs our estimate 30% leaves no value; home side's poor form and low scoring make this a trap.

Prediction history

Sandefjord has been perfect in recent Over 2.5 goals projections

Sandefjord has fulfilled 4 of 4 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 62.5%, with an expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions, so actual outcomes exceeded expectation. All four matches produced at least three total goals, including two home and two away games.

Recent evidence for Sandefjord4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Eliteserien