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SandefjordStart Kristiansand

Sun 20 Sept 2026, 15:0020 Sept, 15:00

14Probabilities0Priced4Edges78%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 05:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Sandefjord's home solidity (2W-5D-3L) against Start's league-worst away record (1W-1D-8L, 26 conceded) plus Start's confirmed goalkeeper crisis make the home-or-draw double chance and an away goal the standout angles.

Best value sits in Total Goals Away Over 0.5 at 1.30 and BTTS Yes at 1.53; avoid the Start win at 3.30 and the overpriced first-half goal lines.

Context

Start lose first-choice goalkeeper Filip Manojlovic to a hand fracture and must use emergency loan cover, while centre-back John Olav Norheim returns to the squad after injury.

Sandefjord sit 14th in Eliteserien on 20 points, level with the relegation line, and are winless in their last two league matches. Start are bottom on 16 points, four points from safety.
Sandefjord's absentees include midfielders F. Apetorgbor and J. Dunsby through yellow-card suspensions, plus defender D. Koswal and midfielders M. Melchior and N. Moller through injury. That removes two regular midfield options and a defender from the squad. Start are also without defender J. Norheim and midfielders F. Lien and K. Tonnesen, so both teams are missing players in similar areas. The match may be decided by which squad copes better with the absentees.
- Sandefjord midfielders F. Apetorgbor and J. Dunsby are suspended for yellow-card accumulation.
- Sandefjord defender D. Koswal and midfielders M. Melchior and N. Moller are out injured.
- Start defenders J. Norheim and K. Tonnesen and midfielder F. Lien are out injured.
Filip Manojlovic is Start Kristiansand's goalkeeper, and he fractured his hand in the 13 September match against Brann, underwent surgery and is out for an indefinite period. Start said only one goalkeeper on a professional contract could otherwise play, so it received federation dispensation on 18 September to sign a goalkeeper on loan, without naming a starter for the Sandefjord trip.
The confirmed absence removes Start's prior first-team goalkeeper from selection and forces a late decision in a specialist position. Emergency loan cover addresses the eligibility problem, but the club has not named a starter, so the identity and readiness of the goalkeeper facing Sandefjord remain unresolved. That uncertainty sits alongside Start's wider away difficulties rather than replacing them.
- Start said Manojlovic fractured his hand in the 13 September match against Brann, underwent surgery and is out for an indefinite period.
- On 18 September, Start said it had received federation dispensation to sign a goalkeeper on loan because only one goalkeeper on a professional contract could otherwise play.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 05:18 · Europe/BucharestIK Start: Filip Manojlovic out indefinitelywww.ikstart.no · 15 Sep 2026IK Start: Magnus Sjøeng is ready for Startwww.ikstart.no · 18 Sep 2026
Start are bottom of Eliteserien on 16 points after 20 matches, four points from safety. They have won only one of ten away league games this season.
Start's away record of one win, one draw and eight defeats from ten matches, with 10 goals scored and 26 conceded, is the worst in the division. Their overall defensive record of 41 goals conceded in 20 games is also the joint-worst in the league. Sandefjord's home record is modest, with two wins and five draws from ten, but they have conceded only 10 goals at home. Start's away form suggests they will struggle to keep this match tight.
- Start's away record in Eliteserien 2026 is one win, one draw and eight defeats from ten matches.
- Start have conceded 26 goals in ten away league matches this season.
- Start's overall record is four wins, four draws and twelve defeats from 20 matches.
Sandefjord are 14th in Eliteserien on 20 points, level with the relegation line. They have played ten home matches, winning two, drawing five and losing three.
Sandefjord's home record of two wins, five draws and three defeats from ten matches shows they rarely lose at home but also struggle to win. They have scored only seven goals in those ten home games, the lowest home goals tally in the division. Start's away form is poor, but Sandefjord's inability to turn home matches into wins means this could be another tight game.
- Sandefjord have drawn five of their ten home league matches in 2026.
- Sandefjord have scored seven goals in ten home league matches this season.
- Sandefjord's home record is two wins, five draws and three defeats.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home edge plus Start's league-worst away record (1W-1D-8L, 26 conceded) and relegation pressure on both sides favour the home team, with H2H psychology also on Sandefjord's side.
- Sandefjord home record 2026 Eliteserien: 2W-5D-3L, 7 goals for / 10 against in 10 home games (only 3 home defeats).
- Start away record: 1W-1D-8L, 10 scored / 26 conceded in 10 away matches — worst away side in the division.
- Start sit 16th (16 pts, -19 GD) with 12 defeats in 20; Sandefjord 14th on 20 pts and unbeaten in 3 of last 4 league games (D-D-W-L).
- H2H last 5: Sandefjord won the most recent meeting 3-2 (Mar 2026) and are unbeaten in the last 3 head-to-heads.
BetBugs · Match WinnerSandefjordEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Start's away collapse (1 win in 10, 26 conceded) combined with Sandefjord's home solidity makes the home-or-draw double chance the safest match-result angle.
- Sandefjord have lost only 3 of 10 home league games this season (2W-5D-3L).
- Start have won just 1 of 10 away league matches, losing 8, with a -16 away goal difference.
- Start's last 5 league form: W-L-W-L-L, including 0-3 and 0-4-type heavy defeats on the road.
- Sandefjord's last 5 league results include two draws and a win, showing resilience at home.
BetBugs · Double ChanceSandefjord or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show inconsistent first-half profiles with frequent level scorelines at the break, making a drawn first half the most probable single outcome.
- Sandefjord have been leading at half-time in only 20% of matches and trailing in 47%.
- Start have been leading at HT in 40% and trailing in 40% of matches.
- Sandefjord's last 5 league first halves: 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1 — mostly level or trailing.
- Start's last 5 league first halves: 1-0, 0-2, 2-1, 0-1, 0-3 — volatile.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sandefjord's tendency to stay level or ahead at the break, combined with Start's habit of trailing early on the road, favours the home-or-draw first-half double chance.
- Sandefjord have been leading or level at half-time in 53% of matches.
- Start have trailed at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Sandefjord's last 5 league first halves: 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1 — only one deficit.
- Start's away first halves have seen them trail early in 3 of their last 5.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfSandefjord or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals7 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Start's leaky defence and high-scoring away profile, plus Sandefjord's moderate scoring rate, point to a game with enough goal volume to clear 2.5.
- Start's 20 league games have produced 63 goals (22 for, 41 against) — 3.15 goals per game.
- Start away games average 3.6 goals (10 scored, 26 conceded in 10).
- Sandefjord average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded across last 15 matches (3.2 combined).
- Recent H2H: 3-2 in March 2026 and 2-2 in 2020 — both meetings cleared 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have porous defences and Start consistently find the net even in defeats, while Sandefjord's home games have seen them concede regularly, supporting both teams scoring.
- Start have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches (2,0,4,0,2 goals) despite poor results.
- Sandefjord have conceded in 6 of their last 8 league games, including 3 against Bodo/Glimt.
- Start's away games average 1.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded — they rarely keep clean sheets but do score.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of the 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Start's tendency to score and concede early, combined with Sandefjord's occasional first-half concessions, makes a first-half goal likely.
- Start average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded across last 15 matches.
- Sandefjord average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.5 against, but Start's away games have seen early goals (0-2 at HT vs Aalesund, 1-1 at HT vs Brann).
- Start have scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Sandefjord have conceded first-half goals in 3 of their last 5 league games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Start's poor second-half defensive record and Sandefjord's late-game scoring tendency support over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Start concede heavily after the break — 26 away goals conceded across 10 games, many in second halves.
- Sandefjord's matches average 3.2 total goals with a large share coming in the second period.
- Start's last 5 league games produced 2+ second-half goals in 4 of 5.
- Sandefjord's home games average 1.7 total goals but they push late when chasing.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Start's ability to score on the road and Sandefjord's infrequent clean sheets make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Sandefjord have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 league games.
- Start have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Sandefjord's home games have seen them concede in 7 of 10.
- Start's away scoring rate is 1.0 goals per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreStart Kristiansand to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Start's leaky away defence (26 conceded in 10) gives Sandefjord a strong chance of scoring at least twice.
- Sandefjord average 1.9 goals scored across last 15 matches.
- Sandefjord scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 8 league games.
- Start concede 2.6 goals per away game on average.
- Sandefjord's home games average 0.7 goals for, but recent form shows improvement (2-0 vs Kristiansund, 1-0 vs Aalesund).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalSandefjord over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Start's consistent scoring output even in defeats, combined with Sandefjord's regular home concessions, makes an away goal highly likely.
- Start have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Start average 1.0 goals per away game.
- Sandefjord have conceded in 7 of 10 home league games.
- Start scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalStart Kristiansand over 0.5Estimated chance75%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a steady corner volume with a combined average near 10, making over 8.5 a reasonable but low-confidence call.
- Sandefjord average 5.3 corners per game; Start average 4.7.
- Combined average of 10.0 corners per match across recent form.
- Start's last 5 league games produced corner counts of 9, 6, 6, 6, 5.
- Sandefjord's last 5 league games produced 7, 5, 6, 5, 5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sandefjord's high card averages and the relegation stakes for both teams make over 3.5 cards likely.
- Sandefjord average 2.4 yellow cards and 0.6 red cards per game — high discipline risk.
- Start average 1.9 yellow cards and 0.4 red cards per game.
- Sandefjord's last 5 league games produced 5, 2, 4, 3, 3 yellow cards.
- Relegation pressure on both sides (14th vs 16th) increases physicality and card risk.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average close to 4 shots on target each, putting the combined total near the 7.5 line.
- Sandefjord average 3.9 shots on target per game; Start average 3.9.
- Combined average of 7.8 shots on target per match.
- Start's last 5 league games produced 6, 6, 7, 2, 5 shots on target.
- Sandefjord's last 5 league games produced 3, 1, 5, 9, 4 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 7.5Estimated chance54%

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Prediction history

Sandefjord’s Over 2.5 goals projections have been fully reliable in recent home and away matches

Sandefjord fulfilled 4 of 4 Over 2.5 goals projections, with an average estimated probability of 62.5% and an expected fulfilment of 2.5. The current 58% probability sits within the historical range of 55% to 75%. The sample is small and recent, but both home and away appearances produced 2 fulfilled predictions each.

Recent evidence for Sandefjord4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Eliteserien

Sandefjord0-3