Sandefjord0KFUM Oslo1

HT 0–1Fri 7 Aug 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 15–16On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Aug 2026, 07:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Sandefjord or Draw (1X) at 1.35 for a high-probability safety net, leveraging their H2H dominance and KFUM's winless away record.

The 'Folkets Kamp' crowd and KFUM's leaky defense also make Over 2.5 goals an attractive, though slightly negative-value, option. Avoid first-half Sandefjord bets — they rarely lead at the break.

Context

KFUM's away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 6 Eliteserien away matches.
- They have conceded 15 goals in those 6 away games, an average of 2.5 per match.
- KFUM have not kept a clean sheet away from home all season.
Sandefjord designated this as 'Folkets Kamp' with tickets at only NOK 19.
- The match coincides with the Sandarcup opening day, boosting local attendance.
- The club expects tickets to sell quickly, creating an unusually strong home atmosphere for a routine league match.
Sandefjord won 2-1 away at KFUM on 7 April 2026.
- Sandefjord won 2-0 at home against KFUM on 30 November 2025.
- The official nine-match H2H record is 6 wins for Sandefjord, 2 draws, and 1 win for KFUM.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sandefjord

2.04fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 49%

0.0ppshort

Despite negative edge, strong H2H dominance and KFUM's away struggles justify a medium-confidence play at odds above evens.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently see early goals in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history strongly supports at least one first-half goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H psychology and KFUM's terrible away form give Sandefjord a clear edge, amplified by the 'Folkets Kamp' home crowd motivation.
- Sandefjord have won the last two H2H meetings (2-0 home, 2-1 away) and lead the official series 6-2-1.
- KFUM Oslo have 0 wins in 6 away league matches this season (D2 L4), conceding 15 goals.
- Sandefjord's home record is 2-3-2, with only 2 losses in 7, while KFUM's away form is the worst in the league.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSandefjordEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Sandefjord's solid home resilience with KFUM's dreadful away record and historical dominance makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- Sandefjord are unbeaten in 5 of 7 home matches (W2 D3 L2).
- KFUM Oslo have not won away all season (0-2-4) and have lost 4 of their last 5 overall.
- H2H: Sandefjord have won 6 of 9 official meetings, with KFUM winning only once.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSandefjord or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
KFUM's tendency to trail early, especially away, combined with Sandefjord's slightly better first-half record gives a marginal edge for a home halftime lead.
- Sandefjord led at halftime in 27% of their matches this season, compared to KFUM's 13%.
- KFUM trailed at halftime in 53% of matches, and in 4 of 6 away games.
- In the last H2H, Sandefjord led 1-0 at halftime away.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSandefjordEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of KFUM holding on early but collapsing late, combined with Sandefjord's second-half strength, makes a draw-to-win scenario plausible.
- Sandefjord have drawn at halftime in 3 of 7 home matches, then won 2 of those.
- KFUM have drawn at halftime in 3 of 6 away matches, but lost all 3 in the second half.
- In the last H2H, Sandefjord led at halftime and won.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / SandefjordEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
KFUM's leaky away defense (2.5 goals conceded per away game) and the recent H2H trend of multiple goals support a high-scoring match.
- KFUM's away matches average 3.67 total goals (7 scored, 15 conceded in 6 games).
- Sandefjord's last 5 home matches have seen 2.4 goals on average, with 3 of 5 going over 2.5.
- The last 3 H2H meetings produced 3, 2, and 4 goals respectively.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sandefjord's home matches often see both teams score, and KFUM's away games consistently feature goals at both ends, making BTTS likely.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Sandefjord's last 6 home matches.
- KFUM have scored in 4 of their 6 away games, but conceded in all 6.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see early goals in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history strongly supports at least one first-half goal.
- KFUM's away matches have seen a first-half goal in 5 of 6 games (83%).
- Sandefjord's home matches had a first-half goal in 5 of 7 games (71%).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
KFUM's defensive frailty worsens in the second half, and Sandefjord tend to push late at home, making multiple second-half goals probable.
- KFUM concede heavily after the break: 10 of their 15 away goals conceded came in the second half.
- Sandefjord score 60% of their home goals in the second half.
- The last 3 H2H meetings averaged 2.0 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sandefjord's poor defensive record at home and KFUM's ability to score on the road make a home clean sheet very unlikely.
- Sandefjord have kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 home matches this season.
- KFUM have scored in 4 of 6 away matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Sandefjord kept a clean sheet only once.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKFUM Oslo to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KFUM's away defensive record is abysmal, and Sandefjord consistently find the net at home, making an away clean sheet extremely improbable.
- KFUM have not kept a single clean sheet in 6 away matches this season.
- Sandefjord have scored in 5 of 7 home matches.
- KFUM concede an average of 2.5 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSandefjord to scoreEstimated chance85%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages and recent H2H data consistently hover around the 10-corner mark, supporting an over on 9.5.
- Sandefjord average 5.6 corners per game, KFUM average 4.1, totaling 9.7 on average.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were 11, 9, 14, 8, and 10 (avg 10.4).
- KFUM's away matches average 9.5 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages and consistent H2H card counts point to a match with at least 4 cards, especially given the relegation pressure.
- Sandefjord average 2.1 yellow cards per game, KFUM average 1.9, totaling 4.0.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were 4, 3, 5, 4, and 4 (avg 4.0).
- KFUM's away matches average 4.2 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Sandefjord trail at half-time in 53% of matches, making a first-half lead unlikely despite overall match favouritism.

Prediction history

Sandefjord has been highly reliable when projected for Over 2.5 goals

In 4 recent matches, Sandefjord's Over 2.5 goals projection was fulfilled every time. The average estimated probability was 62.5%, yet all 4 games exceeded 2.5 goals, outperforming the expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions. The current probability of 60% sits within the historical range of 55–75%, and the pattern held both at home and away.

Recent evidence for Sandefjord4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Eliteserien