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Predictions graded

St. Mirren1Celtic2

HT 1–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 19–23On targetOn target 6–8CornersCorners 6–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 14:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Celtic are strong favourites but the market is efficient on the match winner.

The only clear value is over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.10, where the model sees a 10-point edge. Monitor Celtic's injury news before kickoff, as key absences could reduce their dominance.

Context

Celtic are the current Premiership leaders and have started the season strongly.
They have won all three league games, including a 5-1 away win at Kilmarnock on 9 August and a 2-1 home win over Falkirk on 29 August. This perfect start gives them a two-point lead over St. Mirren. However, St. Mirren are also unbeaten in the league, so this match is an early test of Celtic's dominance.
- Celtic have won all three Premiership matches this season.
- They beat Kilmarnock 5-1 away on 9 August 2026.
- They beat Falkirk 2-1 at home on 29 August 2026.
St. Mirren are second in the Premiership and have been strong at home.
They drew 3-3 with Motherwell on 30 August after leading 3-2 at half-time, and they beat St Johnstone 1-0 on 8 August. Their home form suggests they can compete with Celtic, but they have conceded three goals in two home games, which could be a concern against Celtic's attack.
- St. Mirren drew 3-3 with Motherwell at home on 30 August 2026.
- St. Mirren beat St Johnstone 1-0 at home on 8 August 2026.
St. Mirren midfielder L. Donnelly has not started any of the five recent team fixtures with available lineups.
He is expected to miss this match with an abductor injury. His absence narrows St. Mirren's midfield options as they manage two league fixtures in four days.
- BBC Sport reported on 29 August that Donnelly had undergone a scan on an abductor injury.
- The same report said the injury would probably keep him out until the international break.
- L. Donnelly started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 14:32 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport team news via Yahoo Sportsau.sports.yahoo.com
Celtic have a strong recent record against St. Mirren.
In the last five meetings, Celtic won four times, including a 6-2 FA Cup victory on 19 April 2026 and a 1-0 league win on 11 April 2026. St. Mirren's only win in that span was a 3-1 League Cup victory on 14 December 2025. This history suggests Celtic have the upper hand, but St. Mirren have shown they can beat Celtic in cup competitions.
- Celtic beat St. Mirren 6-2 in the FA Cup on 19 April 2026.
- Celtic beat St. Mirren 1-0 in the Premiership on 11 April 2026.
- St. Mirren beat Celtic 3-1 in the League Cup on 14 December 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Celtic

1.38fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Celtic's superior form, H2H dominance, and St. Mirren's home vulnerability make an away win the most likely outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Celtic

1.09fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 91.7%

0.0ppshort

Celtic's unbeaten run and H2H record make a St. Mirren win highly unlikely, supporting the double chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended towards high-scoring affairs, and Celtic's attacking output supports over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

St. Mirren's home scoring record and Celtic's occasional defensive lapses on the road make both teams scoring plausible.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the second half, and Celtic's attacking depth often produces late goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's superior form, H2H dominance, and St. Mirren's home vulnerability make an away win the most likely outcome.
- Celtic have won all 3 league matches this season, scoring 8 and conceding 2.
- Celtic have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 6-2 FA Cup win in April 2026.
- St. Mirren have lost 2 of their last 3 home league matches, conceding 3 goals in each loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCelticEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's unbeaten run and H2H record make a St. Mirren win highly unlikely, supporting the double chance.
- Celtic are unbeaten in their last 15 matches across all competitions (12W, 3D).
- St. Mirren have drawn 3 of their last 5 home matches in all competitions.
- Celtic have not lost to St. Mirren in the last 5 meetings (4W, 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CelticEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's tendency to start strongly and St. Mirren's vulnerability early in matches make a Celtic half-time lead likely.
- Celtic have led at half-time in 47% of their recent matches.
- St. Mirren have trailed at half-time in 33% of their recent matches.
- Celtic scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCelticEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Celtic's ability to dominate from the first half and maintain leads makes the HT/FT double a strong possibility.
- Celtic have led at half-time and won the match in 40% of their recent matches.
- St. Mirren have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 20% of their recent matches.
- Celtic have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, often controlling from the start.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCeltic/CelticEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards high-scoring affairs, and Celtic's attacking output supports over 2.5 goals.
- Celtic average 2.5 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- St. Mirren's last 5 home matches have averaged 3.4 total goals.
- Celtic's last 5 away matches have averaged 3.2 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St. Mirren's home scoring record and Celtic's occasional defensive lapses on the road make both teams scoring plausible.
- St. Mirren have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Celtic have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's strong first-half scoring and St. Mirren's tendency to concede early goals support over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Celtic average 1.3 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- St. Mirren average 0.9 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Celtic have led at half-time in 47% of their recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the second half, and Celtic's attacking depth often produces late goals.
- Celtic average 1.2 second-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- St. Mirren average 1.0 second-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Celtic's last 5 away matches have averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and Celtic's attacking style often leads to many corner kicks.
- Celtic average 6.8 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- St. Mirren average 5.6 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Celtic's last 5 away matches have averaged 10.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's high shot volume and St. Mirren's willingness to shoot from distance could push total shots on target over the line.
- Celtic average 6.5 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- St. Mirren average 5.5 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- Celtic's last 5 away matches have averaged 9.4 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this fixture and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderate number of cards.
- Celtic average 2.3 yellow cards per match in their last 15 matches.
- St. Mirren average 2.0 yellow cards per match in their last 15 matches.
- The last H2H meeting produced 5 yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L6-2CelticvST MirrenApr 19, 2026FAC

L1-0CelticvST MirrenApr 11, 2026PRE

L3-1ST MirrenvCelticDec 14, 2025LEA

W0-1ST MirrenvCelticNov 22, 2025PRE

L1-0CelticvST MirrenAug 3, 2025PRE

Celtic: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	St. Mirren Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	3	2	1	0	6-3	7	DWW
1	Celtic Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	3	3	0	0	8-2	9	WWW

2pt gap between teamsCeltic leads the league

Recent Form

St. Mirren

D3-3MotherwellAug 30PRE

L1-5RangersAug 16LEA

W1-0ST JohnstoneAug 8PRE

W2-0FalkirkAug 1PRE

L0-1DunfermlineJul 26LEA

W4-3East KilbrideJul 21LEA

W4-0Cove RangersJul 18LEA

W4-0DumbartonJul 11LEA

W4-2ArbroathJun 27FRI

W1-0PartickMay 25PRE

D1-1PartickMay 21PRE

D1-1Dundee UtdMay 17PRE

W2-0AberdeenMay 12PRE

L0-3KilmarnockMay 9PRE

L0-1DundeeMay 2PRE

Celtic

W2-1FalkirkAug 29PRE

W3-0Lask LinzAug 19UEF

W4-0Dundee UtdAug 15LEA

W5-1KilmarnockAug 9PRE

W1-0DundeeAug 3PRE

D2-2AC MilanJul 25FRI

D1-1MiddlesbroughJul 18FRI

L1-4Sporting CPJul 14FRI

D1-1ShelbourneJul 7FRI

W3-1DunfermlineMay 23FAC

W3-1Heart Of MidlothianMay 16PRE

W3-2MotherwellMay 13PRE

W3-1RangersMay 10PRE

W2-1HibernianMay 3PRE

W3-1FalkirkApr 25PRE

Squad & Injuries

St. Mirren

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders15

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

Celtic

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Celtic

Draw or Celtic

Celtic at half-time / Celtic at full-time

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St. Mirren

Celtic

Squad & Injuries

St. Mirren

Celtic