EkstraklasaFull time

Predictions graded

Widzew Lodz2Motor Lublin2

HT 2–1Sun 26 Jul 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 18–11On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 18:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Widzew's strong home defense and Motor's coaching upheaval point to a tight, low-scoring first half.

The best value is backing a half-time draw at 2.30 and under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.43, while the outright home win is overpriced given Motor's transitional state.

Context

Motor dismissed Stolarski despite two mid-table finishes and appointed Misiura on 18 June.
- The club is in a 'revolution' phase, with new defensive signing Bartosz Bereszyński acknowledging the scale of change.
- Misiura's tactical approach is untested in competitive matches, adding unpredictability to Motor's performance.
Świderski joined Widzew on 19 June, alongside earlier signings Przemysław Wiśniewski and Bartłomiej Drągowski.
- Widzew averaged 1.5 goals per game last season but only 2.8 shots on target per match; Świderski's finishing could improve conversion.
- The attacking upgrade may help Widzew break down a Motor defense that conceded 1.3 goals per away game last season.
Widzew's home goals conceded average: 0.7 per game (last 15 matches).
- They kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 7 Ekstraklasa home games.
- First-half goals conceded at home: just 0.1 per game, showing early defensive organization.
Motor lost 3 of their last 5 away league matches (last 15 matches).
- They conceded 1.3 goals per away game on average.
- The 4-0 loss at Legia Warszawa in May highlighted defensive vulnerabilities on the road.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew's strong home form and Motor's poor away record, combined with the most recent H2H result, give Widzew a moderate edge despite both teams undergoing summer changes.
- Widzew won 5 of their last 6 home matches across all competitions (last 15 matches).
- Widzew's home form in Ekstraklasa last season: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in last 7 home games (last 15 matches).
- Motor Lublin lost 3 of their last 5 away Ekstraklasa matches (last 15 matches).
- Widzew beat Motor 2-0 at home in the most recent H2H (April 2026).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWidzew LodzEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Widzew's solid home defensive record and Motor's struggles on the road make a home win or draw highly likely, supported by Widzew's unbeaten home streak.
- Widzew have not lost at home in their last 6 matches across all competitions (last 15 matches).
- Motor Lublin have won only 1 of their last 5 away Ekstraklasa matches (last 15 matches).
- Widzew's home defensive record: only 0.7 goals conceded per game on average (last 15 matches).
- Motor's away attack has been inconsistent, scoring 1.2 goals per away game in Ekstraklasa last season (last 15 matches).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWidzew Lodz or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams showing balanced first-half performances and low scoring, a draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, especially given Widzew's tendency to start cautiously at home.
- Widzew led at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches, but only 3 of 7 home Ekstraklasa games.
- Motor Lublin trailed at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches, but drew 40% of away first halves.
- In the last 2 H2H meetings, the first half ended 0-0 and 1-0 (Widzew lead), but overall H2H first halves are tight.
- Both teams averaged 0.7 first-half goals in their respective home/away splits (last 15 matches).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew's pattern of drawing at half-time and winning in the second half at home, combined with Motor's second-half struggles away, makes this a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Widzew drew at half-time in 5 of their last 7 home Ekstraklasa matches, then won 4 of those 5.
- Motor Lublin drew at half-time in 2 of their last 5 away Ekstraklasa matches, then lost both.
- Widzew's second-half performance at home: +0.6 goal difference on average (last 15 matches).
- Motor's second-half performance away: -0.4 goal difference on average (last 15 matches).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Widzew LodzEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of low-scoring H2H trends, Widzew's strong home defense, and defensive signings on both sides points to a tight, low-scoring match.
- Widzew's home matches averaged 2.0 total goals in their last 7 Ekstraklasa home games (last 15 matches).
- Motor Lublin's away matches averaged 2.4 total goals in their last 5 away Ekstraklasa games (last 15 matches).
- 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings had under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have undergone defensive reinforcements (Widzew signed Drągowski, Motor signed Bereszyński).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Widzew's strong home defensive record and the recent H2H pattern of clean sheets suggest at least one team will fail to score, especially with Motor's inconsistent away attack.
- Widzew kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 7 home Ekstraklasa matches (last 15 matches).
- Motor Lublin failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away Ekstraklasa matches (last 15 matches).
- In the last 2 H2H meetings, one team kept a clean sheet each time.
- Widzew's home goals conceded average is 0.7, Motor's away goals scored average is 1.2 (last 15 matches).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, especially Widzew at home, making a slow start with under 1.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Widzew's first-half goals at home: 0.7 scored, 0.1 conceded on average (last 15 matches).
- Motor Lublin's first-half goals away: 0.7 scored, 0.7 conceded on average (last 15 matches).
- In 5 of Widzew's last 7 home Ekstraklasa matches, the first half had under 1.5 goals.
- In 4 of Motor's last 5 away Ekstraklasa matches, the first half had under 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While the overall match is expected to be low-scoring, the second half often opens up, and the H2H trend supports over 1.5 second-half goals, though confidence is low due to defensive improvements.
- Widzew's home matches saw 1.3 second-half goals on average in their last 7 Ekstraklasa home games.
- Motor Lublin's away matches saw 1.7 second-half goals on average in their last 5 away Ekstraklasa games.
- In 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings, the second half had over 1.5 goals.
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half: Widzew 0.6, Motor 0.6 second-half goals conceded on average (last 15 matches).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Widzew's low corner count at home and the recent H2H totals hovering around 9-10 suggest a moderate likelihood of staying under 9.5 corners, though Motor's slightly higher corner rate adds some risk.
- Widzew's home matches averaged 7.4 total corners in their last 7 Ekstraklasa home games.
- Motor Lublin's away matches averaged 9.6 total corners in their last 5 away Ekstraklasa games.
- In the last 2 H2H meetings, total corners were 10 and 9.
- Widzew averages only 3.6 corners per game overall, Motor 5.1 (last 15 matches).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Motor's higher disciplinary issues on the road and both teams' average card counts point to a moderately card-filled match, likely exceeding 4.5 total cards.
- Widzew's home matches averaged 4.3 total cards in their last 7 Ekstraklasa home games.
- Motor Lublin's away matches averaged 5.2 total cards in their last 5 away Ekstraklasa games.
- Widzew averages 2.2 yellow cards per game, Motor 3.0 (last 15 matches).
- In the last H2H meeting (April 2026), there were 3 yellow cards, but previous meetings had higher counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

L2-0Widzew ŁódźvMotor LublinApr 26, 2026EKS

L3-0Motor LublinvWidzew ŁódźOct 24, 2025EKS

W1-2Widzew ŁódźvMotor LublinApr 19, 2025EKS

W3-4Motor LublinvWidzew ŁódźOct 19, 2024EKS

W1-2Widzew ŁódźvMotor LublinJun 29, 2024FRI

Motor Lublin: 2 clean sheets3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Ekstraklasa 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Widzew Lodz	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
8	Motor Lublin	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Recent Form

Widzew Lodz

W2-0Puszcza NiepołomiceJul 19FRI

W4-3Mannsdorf-GroßenzersdorfJul 13FRI

W2-0BeşiktaşJul 10FRI

D0-0Dunajska StredaJul 4FRI

W4-0Stal RzeszówJun 27FRI

W2-1Piast GliwiceMay 23EKS

L0-1Korona KielceMay 15EKS

W3-1Lechia GdanskMay 9EKS

L0-1Legia WarszawaMay 1EKS

W2-0Motor LublinApr 26EKS

L1-2Radomiak RadomApr 18EKS

W1-0NiecieczaApr 11EKS

D1-1Raków CzęstochowaApr 4EKS

D0-0Gornik ZabrzeMar 22EKS

D0-0Arka GdyniaMar 15EKS

Motor Lublin

W2-0Hapoel KatamonJul 17FRI

W2-1Polonia WarszawaJul 11FRI

W4-1Warta PoznańJul 3FRI

W3-1Dinamo BucurestiJun 27FRI

L0-4Legia WarszawaMay 23EKS

D3-3Cracovia KrakowMay 16EKS

W4-0Wisla PlockMay 10EKS

L0-1Lech PoznanMay 2EKS

L0-2Widzew ŁódźApr 26EKS

L2-3GKS KatowiceApr 17EKS

D1-1Raków CzęstochowaApr 12EKS

D1-1Radomiak RadomApr 6EKS

W1-0Zaglebie LubinMar 20EKS

W2-1NiecieczaMar 13EKS

D0-0Gornik ZabrzeMar 8EKS

Squad & Injuries

Widzew Lodz

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Motor Lublin

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Widzew Lodz or Draw

Widzew Lodz

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Widzew Lodz or Draw

Widzew Lodz

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Widzew Lodz

Motor Lublin

Squad & Injuries

Widzew Lodz

Motor Lublin