Supra Quebec2Vancouver2

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges0–50%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 14–8On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 05:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Vancouver lead Supra by two points into the game that decides the last CPL playoff place, and a Supra win flips the table.

Vancouver have won two of the three meetings this season but have not won since 6 September; Supra have taken their last two. Five reviewed prices carry small edges, among them the first half to finish level at 2.38, under 2.5 goals at 2.4 and Vancouver at 3.3; Supra at 1.85 is one to leave alone.

Context

Only two points separate Vancouver in fourth from Supra in fifth, and this is the head-to-head fixture that decides whether the gap closes or holds. The two clubs arrive on opposite runs: Vancouver have not won since 6 September, while Supra have taken three points from each of their last two matches, so an identical-looking table gap hides different momentum. Because HFX Wanderers and Inter Toronto are also alive in the same four-team race, dropped points here hand ground to sides not on the pitch. With three rounds left the fixture is a swing game rather than an elimination match, and a draw keeps Vancouver in front.
- Supra du Québec trail Vancouver by two points for the fourth and final Canadian Premier League playoff place.
- Vancouver hold that place, with HFX Wanderers and Inter Toronto the other sides still able to take the last postseason berth.
- Supra won 2-1 at Inter Toronto on 7 October and now host Vancouver on 10 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 05:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Supra's most recent home match was their biggest win of the window, 5-0 against Pacific FC on 4 October, with 10 shots on target to Pacific's none. The same recent stretch contains a 0-6 loss at Cavalry on 26 September and a 0-2 home defeat to HFX Wanderers on 12 September, so that scoreline sits inside an uneven run of three wins from six matches.
- 4 October 2026: Supra Quebec 5-0 Pacific FC (home); 22 shots and 10 on target for Supra, 4 shots and 0 on target for Pacific FC.
Vancouver's form line, most recent first, reads draw, draw, draw, defeat, win, leaving them fourth on 33 points from 25 matches and two clear of Supra. Their last victory was the 3-2 home win over Supra on 6 September. A draw in Quebec would still keep them above Supra, so the run has not yet cost them the place they are defending, but they come into this game without recent winning form.
- Standings as of 8 October 2026: Vancouver 4th on 33 points from 25 matches, form D-D-D-L-W.
- Vancouver away record in the 2026 CPL: 3W-2D-7L, 14 scored, 18 conceded in 12 matches.
Supra's 2026 home ledger of four wins, two draws and six defeats, with 16 goals scored and 17 conceded in 12 games, is not the return of a side that leans on its own ground; their away record shows five wins, 22 goals scored and 28 conceded in 13 games. This fixture is at home, so the weaker split is the one that applies. The counterweight is timing, with Supra having won 5-0 at home and 2-1 away in the past week.
- Standings as of 8 October 2026: Supra Quebec 5th on 31 points from 25 matches; home record 12 games, 4W-2D-6L, 16 scored, 17 conceded.
- Same standings: Supra Quebec away record 13 games, 5W-2D-6L, 22 scored, 28 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Supra must win to climb above Vancouver and have taken three of their last six, while Vancouver's poor away record keeps this close with a slight home lean.
- Supra are 5th on 31 points, two behind Vancouver's 33 with three rounds left
- Supra home league record: 4W-2D-6L, 16 scored, 17 conceded in 12 games
- Vancouver away league record: 3W-2D-7L, 14 scored, 18 conceded in 12 games
- Supra have won three of their last six; Vancouver are winless in four
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSupra QuebecEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Both teams produce few first-half goals and Supra have gone into the break level in four of their last six matches.
- Supra's home first halves average 0.5 goals for and 0.33 against
- Vancouver's away first halves average 0.5 goals for and 0.5 against
- Supra have not scored a first-half goal in four of their last six
- Vancouver were level at half-time in three of their last six
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is spread fairly evenly between these sides, and several recent games have finished level after the break.
- Supra average 0.73 second-half goals for and 0.87 against per game
- Vancouver average 0.8 second-half goals for and 0.87 against per game
- Supra's second half finished level in three of their last six
- Vancouver's 1-1 draw at Pacific FC was 0-0 after the break
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Supra must win to climb above Vancouver and have taken three of their last six, while Vancouver's poor away record keeps this close with a slight home lean. Vancouver hold the better overall record and have won both head-to-head games, though their weak away form and four-match winless run keep the margin narrow.
- Supra are 5th on 31 points, two behind Vancouver's 33 with three rounds left
- Supra home league record: 4W-2D-6L, 16 scored, 17 conceded in 12 games
- Vancouver lead Supra by two points and have won both meetings this season, 5-1 and 3-2
- Vancouver away league record: 3W-2D-7L, 14 scored, 18 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSupra Quebec or VancouverEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in these teams' matches are low-scoring, and Supra's small edge in home first-half goal difference gives them a narrow lead in this market. Both teams produce few first-half goals and Supra have gone into the break level in four of their last six matches.
- Supra average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.8 against; at home 0.5 and 0.33
- Vancouver average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.67 against; away 0.5 and 0.5
- Supra's home first halves average 0.5 goals for and 0.33 against
- Vancouver's away first halves average 0.5 goals for and 0.5 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSupra Quebec or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences concede regularly and the head-to-head games have been open, with Vancouver's away matches averaging more than two and a half goals.
- This season's three meetings produced 6, 2 and 5 goals
- Supra home games average 1.33 scored and 1.42 conceded; Vancouver away games 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded
- Supra's recent results include 5-0 and 0-6
- Vancouver's recent results include 3-3, 1-3 and 3-2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Supra usually find a goal and Vancouver have scored in five of their last six, so both sides scoring is the more likely single outcome.
- Supra scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches and conceded in 12
- Vancouver saw both teams score in 10 of 15 tracked matches
- Vancouver scored in five of their last six matches
- Supra scored in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Supra's home scoring average sits below the line and they have been held to one goal or fewer in most recent matches.
- Supra average 1.33 goals per home league game
- Supra failed to score in three of their last six matches
- Supra's 5-0 win over Pacific FC is their only recent home game with more than one goal
- Vancouver have kept one clean sheet in their last eight away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSupra Quebec under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vancouver score in the large majority of their games and Supra have conceded in four of their last six.
- Vancouver scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches
- Vancouver scored in five of their last six matches
- Supra kept three clean sheets in 15 tracked matches
- Supra have conceded in four of their last six
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVancouver to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nearly all of both teams' recent matches have included a first-half goal, and their combined first-half scoring averages sit close to one and a half goals.
- All six of Supra's last six matches produced at least one first-half goal
- Vancouver have produced first-half goals in five of their last six
- Supra average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.8 against per game
- Vancouver average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.67 against per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Late scoring in these teams' recent games has been modest, with several second halves producing one goal or none.
- Vancouver's away second halves average 0.625 goals for and 1.125 against
- Supra's second half finished 0-0 in three of their last six
- Vancouver's last six second halves produced 1, 3, 0, 3, 1 and 1 goals
- Supra's second-half average is 0.73 goals for and 0.87 against
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages sit around the line, with Vancouver's away games tending high and Supra's home games lower.
- Supra average 4.67 corners and concede 4.22 in nine tracked matches
- Vancouver average 5.11 corners and concede 4.67 in nine tracked matches
- Vancouver's away games average 6.4 corners for and 5.0 against
- September's meeting produced nine corners, 2-7 to Supra
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vancouver's matches have been notably quiet on total shots and their low away volume should hold the combined figure near the line.
- Vancouver's away games average 21.2 total shots
- Vancouver's last six matches averaged 21.2 total shots
- Supra's home matches average 29.3 total shots across three tracked games
- Supra's overall matches average 28.4 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 27.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined on-target averages sit below the line, especially in Vancouver's away matches.
- Vancouver's away games average 8.2 total shots on target
- Vancouver's overall matches average 8.5 shots on target in total
- Supra's home games average 10.3 total shots on target
- Supra's overall matches average 9.7 total shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' recent matches have usually stayed under five cards, with Vancouver's games consistently low.
- Vancouver's last six matches produced 3, 2, 3, 3, 3 and 3 total cards
- Supra's last five tracked card totals were 6, 3, 6, 3 and 1
- Vancouver average 1.56 yellows and concede 1.22 to opponents
- Supra average 0.33 red cards in six tracked matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance64%