IK Kongahalla1Qviding FIF2

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges0–20%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 16:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Kongahälla's late-season scoring burst meets a Qviding side that has conceded 2.38 goals a game on the road, yet the higher-ranked visitors won the April meeting 3-1 and sit seven points clear.

A home win is the more likely single result, but the 1.95 on offer needs more than the evidence supports, and the 2.88 on Qviding does not appeal either. Under 2.5 goals at 3.1 is the one quoted price worth considering.

Context

That April result is the only head-to-head evidence in the record, and it came with Qviding finishing the day on top. A single match sets no pattern, but it shows Kongahälla have already lost to this opponent once this season, which sits alongside their current run of four wins in five.
- Qviding FIF 3-1 Kongahälla, Division 2 Västra Götaland, 25 April 2026.
- The only head-to-head fixture in the supplied record this season.
Qviding's away sample covers eight matches, from 29 May to 27 September, and includes two wins and two draws, so they are not hapless travellers. The no-clean-sheet run and 2.38 goals conceded per away game are still the clearest numbers in the record, and they sit against Kongahälla's 2.00 goals per home game.
- Qviding's away record in the tracked window, 29 May to 27 September 2026: 8 matches, 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses.
- Goals in those 8 away matches: 1.13 scored and 2.38 conceded per game, with 0 clean sheets.
Kongahälla's last five league games read LWWWW, 12 points from 15, yet the season as a whole, 7 wins, 6 draws and 11 defeats in 24, keeps them 11th on 27 points. Qviding are 8th on 34 from the same number of games, so recent results favour the hosts while the season record favours the visitors.
- Standings dated 9 October 2026: Kongahälla 11th, 27 points from 24 matches (7 wins, 6 draws, 11 defeats), form LWWWW.
- Qviding 8th, 34 points from 24 matches (10 wins, 4 draws, 10 defeats), form LWLWW.
Landvetter IS won 1-0 away at Qviding FIF on 2 October to secure the Division 2 Västra Götaland title with two rounds still to play, the club's first promotion to Ettan. Kongahälla host Qviding in one of those closing rounds, so the division's automatic promotion place is already decided before kick-off. The concrete effect on this fixture is limited: it removes a title-race element from the closing weeks rather than changing either team's selection or approach. What the clinching result does not settle is the rest of the table, so any relegation or development stakes involving Kongahälla or Qviding remain outside this claim.
- Landvetter IS's 1-0 away win over Qviding FIF on 2 October 2026 secured the Division 2 Västra Götaland series win.
- The title was confirmed with two rounds of the season still to be played.
- Landvetter IS will play in Ettan in 2027 for the first time in the club's history.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 16:17 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

IK Kongahalla

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

−6.3ppshort

Kongahälla's heavy recent scoring meets a Qviding side conceding 2.38 goals a game on the road, making a home win the most likely single result.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Kongahälla's heavy recent scoring meets a Qviding side conceding 2.38 goals a game on the road, making a home win the most likely single result.
- Kongahälla home: 2.00 scored, 1.57 conceded per game in 7 matches
- Kongahälla won 4 of their last 5 league games
- Qviding away: 2.38 conceded per game in 8 matches
- Qviding rank 8th on 34 points; Kongahälla 11th on 27
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIK KongahallaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kongahälla have the stronger first-half scoring and Qviding rarely lead at the break away from home.
- Kongahälla first-half goals for: 0.86 at home
- Qviding first-half goals against: 1.13 away
- Qviding first-half goals for: 0.25 away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonIK KongahallaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Kongahälla score heavily after the break at home and Qviding concede late goals away.
- Kongahälla second-half goals for: 1.14 at home
- Qviding second-half goals against: 1.25 away
- Kongahälla scored three or more second-half goals in recent home wins
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostIK KongahallaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kongahälla's heavy recent scoring meets a Qviding side conceding 2.38 goals a game on the road, making a home win the most likely single result. Qviding's higher league position and away scoring keep an away win well within reach.
- Kongahälla home: 2.00 scored, 1.57 conceded per game in 7 matches
- Kongahälla won 4 of their last 5 league games
- Qviding away: 1.13 scored, 2.38 conceded per game
- Qviding 8th on 34 points vs Kongahälla 11th on 27
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIK Kongahalla or Qviding FIFEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kongahälla have the stronger first-half scoring and Qviding rarely lead at the break away from home. Both teams score few first-half goals, so the break often arrives level.
- Kongahälla first-half goals for: 0.86 at home
- Qviding first-half goals against: 1.13 away
- Kongahälla first half: 0.6 scored, 0.8 conceded overall
- Qviding first half: 0.6 scored, 0.87 conceded overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonIK Kongahalla or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals8 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away games average well over three goals and neither defence has been reliable.
- Kongahälla home games average 3.57 total goals
- Qviding away games average 3.50 total goals
- Kongahälla's last six games produced 28 goals
- Qviding have no clean sheet in 8 away games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score regularly and neither defence keeps clean sheets often, so both finding the net is the more likely outcome.
- Kongahälla scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Qviding found the net in 6 of 8 away games
- Kongahälla kept only 2 clean sheets in 15
- Qviding kept 0 clean sheets in 8 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kongahälla have been scoring heavily at home and often reach two goals.
- Kongahälla average 2.00 goals per home game
- Kongahälla scored 16 goals in their last six
- Each of their last four wins produced three or more goals
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostIK Kongahalla over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding's away scoring has been modest, keeping them below two goals in most road games.
- Qviding away average 1.13 goals per game
- Qviding scored just six goals in their last six games
- Qviding were shut out in two of their last six
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostQviding FIF under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding score in most away matches, making it likely Kongahälla concede.
- Qviding scored in 6 of 8 away games
- Qviding found the net in 3 of their last 6
- Kongahälla kept only 2 clean sheets in 15
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonQviding FIF to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kongahälla's scoring output makes it very likely Qviding concede.
- Qviding kept 0 clean sheets in 8 away games
- Kongahälla scored in 5 of their last 6
- Kongahälla scored 16 goals in six games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIK Kongahalla to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding usually score, so a Kongahälla win to nil is the less likely branch.
- Qviding scored in 6 of 8 away games
- Qviding found the net in 3 of their last 6
- Kongahälla conceded 1.8 goals per game
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
At least one first-half goal is likely given Kongahälla's early scoring at home.
- Kongahälla first-half goals for: 0.86 at home
- Qviding first-half goals for: 0.25 away
- Qviding conceded 1.13 first-half goals away
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Qviding rarely score early on the road, making a first-half goal for both sides unlikely.
- Qviding first-half goals for: 0.25 away
- Kongahälla first-half goals for: 0.6 overall
- Kongahälla first-half goals against: 0.8 overall
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves average around two goals combined, making two or more likely.
- Kongahälla home second half: 1.14 for, 0.86 against
- Qviding away second half: 0.88 for, 1.25 against
- Kongahälla score most of their goals after the break
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%