Landvetter IS3IK Kongahalla4

HT 2–0Fri 4 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 04:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Landvetter IS are strong favorites at home against IK Kongahalla, with a 72% win probability and a 90% chance of avoiding defeat.

The best value lies in the double chance (Landvetter or draw) at 1.20, offering a +7 point edge, while the home win at 1.45 provides a smaller +3 point edge. Avoid the over 2.5 goals and first-half over 0.5 goals markets, as the odds imply much higher probabilities than the model estimates.

Context

Landvetter IS lead Division 2 - Västra Götaland with 44 points from 19 matches. Their home form has been a key part of that success.
Landvetter IS have won 9 of their 10 home league matches this season, with the only loss coming against Böljan on 14 May. They have conceded just 4 goals at home, which is the best defensive home record in the division. IK Kongahalla have struggled away from home, winning only 1 of 9 away matches and conceding 20 goals. This contrast suggests Landvetter IS should control the match, but IK Kongahalla's recent 4-0 away win at Västra Frölunda on 14 August shows they can be dangerous on the road.
- Landvetter IS home record: 9 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in 10 matches, with 16 goals scored and 4 conceded.
- IK Kongahalla away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 5 losses in 9 matches, with 9 goals scored and 20 conceded.
- Landvetter IS lost their only home match 0-1 to Böljan on 14 May 2026.
Landvetter IS lead Division 2 Västra Götaland on 44 points from 19 matches, nine clear of Jonsered. IK Kongahälla sit 12th on 17 points, two ahead of 13th-placed Galtabacks.
The table makes the stakes concrete: a Landvetter win would protect their substantial lead, while Kongahälla need points to widen their narrow margin above the bottom two. The 26-round schedule leaves limited time for either side to recover from a poor result, so both teams enter with clear competitive urgency.
- The 2 September Division 2 Västra Götaland table lists Landvetter first on 44 points from 19 matches, nine clear of Jonsered.
- The same table lists IK Kongahälla 12th on 17 points from 19 matches, two points ahead of 13th-placed Galtabacks.
- The competition schedule is a 26-round home-and-away season.
ReportedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 03:59 · Europe/BucharestDivision 2 Västra Götaland standingsdiv2.se · 2 Sep 2026
IK Kongahalla are 12th in the table with 15 points, only 9 points above the relegation line. They have relied on home matches for most of their points.
IK Kongahalla have lost 5 of their 9 away matches, including a 0-2 defeat at Åstorp on 22 August and a 1-4 loss at Dalstorps on 9 August. They have conceded at least 2 goals in 6 of those 9 away games. Landvetter IS have scored in all but one home match this season, so IK Kongahalla's defense will be under pressure. However, IK Kongahalla did win 4-0 at Västra Frölunda on 14 August, showing they can produce a strong away performance.
- IK Kongahalla away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 5 losses in 9 matches, with 9 goals scored and 20 conceded.
- Recent away losses: 0-2 at Åstorp on 22 August 2026 and 1-4 at Dalstorps on 9 August 2026.
- Landvetter IS have scored in 9 of 10 home matches this season.
Landvetter IS have been the strongest team in Division 2 - Västra Götaland this season, with 14 wins in 19 matches. IK Kongahalla have only 3 wins and are closer to the relegation zone.
Landvetter IS have 44 points from 19 matches, while IK Kongahalla have 15 points. Landvetter IS have scored 32 goals and conceded only 12, giving them the best goal difference in the league. IK Kongahalla have conceded 36 goals, the second-most in the division. This points gap suggests Landvetter IS should be comfortable favourites, but IK Kongahalla drew 1-1 with Landvetter IS earlier this season on 1 May, so they have shown they can compete.
- Landvetter IS: 44 points, 14 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 32 goals scored, 12 conceded.
- IK Kongahalla: 15 points, 3 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses, 20 goals scored, 36 conceded.
- Points gap: 29 points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Landvetter IS

1.88fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 53%

0.0ppshort

Despite the home advantage, the predictor's 48% estimate is below the 53% implied by the odds, so this line is not a value edge.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.33fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Kongahalla's leaky away defense and Landvetter's home attack suggest goals, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Kongahalla's early concessions and Landvetter's first-half scoring support a goal, but the price is too low.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's dominant home form and Kongahalla's poor away record make a home win highly likely, reinforced by the 29-point gap in the standings.
- Landvetter IS home record: 9W-0D-1L, 16 goals for, 4 against in 10 matches
- IK Kongahalla away record: 1W-3D-5L, 9 goals for, 20 against in 9 matches
- Landvetter IS overall: 14W-2D-3L, 32 goals for, 12 against; Kongahalla: 3W-6D-10L, 20 for, 36 against
- Last 5 form: Landvetter WLWDW, Kongahalla LLWLD
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLandvetter ISEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's near-perfect home record and Kongahalla's away struggles make a home win or draw extremely probable.
- Landvetter IS home record: 9W-0D-1L in 10 matches
- IK Kongahalla away record: 1W-3D-5L in 9 matches
- Landvetter IS overall: 14W-2D-3L; Kongahalla: 3W-6D-10L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostLandvetter IS or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's home advantage and Kongahalla's poor first-half away record give the hosts a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Landvetter IS leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 13%
- IK Kongahalla trailing at half time in 47% of matches, leading in 33%
- Landvetter IS home first half goals: 0.7, Kongahalla away first half goals conceded: 1.1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLandvetter ISEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's stronger second-half performance and Kongahalla's defensive decline after the break favor a home second-half win.
- Landvetter IS second half goal difference: +0.3 per match (0.8 for, 0.5 against)
- IK Kongahalla second half goal difference: -0.4 per match (0.4 for, 0.8 against)
- Landvetter IS home second half goals: 0.9, Kongahalla away second half goals conceded: 1.1
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLandvetter ISEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's ability to dominate at home and Kongahalla's tendency to fall behind early make a home win at both half and full time plausible.
- Landvetter IS home record: 9W-0D-1L, with 6 wins by 2+ goals
- IK Kongahalla away record: 1W-3D-5L, with 4 losses by 2+ goals
- Landvetter IS leading at half time in 27% of matches, Kongahalla trailing in 47%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLandvetter IS/Landvetter ISEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's consistent home dominance suggests they could win both halves, though the probability remains modest.
- Landvetter IS home wins by 2+ goals: 6 in 10 matches
- IK Kongahalla away losses by 2+ goals: 4 in 9 matches
- Landvetter IS first half goal difference at home: +0.4, second half: +0.4
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostYesEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's strong first-half home form and Kongahalla's poor first-half away record make a home lead or draw at the break highly likely.
- Landvetter IS first half home record: 6W-3D-1L (estimated from leading/trailing percentages)
- IK Kongahalla first half away record: 1W-2D-6L (estimated from leading/trailing percentages)
- Landvetter IS trailing at half time in only 13% of matches overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonLandvetter IS or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kongahalla's leaky away defense (2.2 goals conceded per away game) combined with Landvetter's solid home attack supports over 2.5 goals.
- Landvetter IS home matches average 2.0 total goals (16 for, 4 against in 10)
- IK Kongahalla away matches average 3.2 total goals (9 for, 20 against in 9)
- Kongahalla's last 5 away matches: 0-2, 1-4, 0-1, 2-2, 0-4 (avg 3.2 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's strong home defense and Kongahalla's away scoring struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Landvetter IS home clean sheets: 6 in 10 matches (60%)
- IK Kongahalla away failed to score in 4 of 9 matches (44%)
- Landvetter IS overall conceded only 12 goals in 19 matches (0.63 per game)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's defensive solidity at home and Kongahalla's away scoring difficulties support a home clean sheet.
- Landvetter IS home clean sheets: 6 in 10 matches (60%)
- IK Kongahalla away failed to score in 4 of 9 matches (44%)
- Landvetter IS overall conceded only 12 goals in 19 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostIK Kongahalla not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kongahalla's tendency to concede early (47% trailing at half time) and Landvetter's first-half scoring rate make a first-half goal likely.
- Landvetter IS first half goals: 0.7 per match overall, 0.7 at home
- IK Kongahalla first half goals conceded: 0.9 per match overall, 1.1 away
- Landvetter IS leading at half time in 27% of matches, Kongahalla trailing in 47%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede more in the second half, making over 1.5 second-half goals a reasonable but not strong bet.
- Landvetter IS second half goals: 0.8 per match (1.5 total - 0.7 first half)
- IK Kongahalla second half goals conceded: 1.0 per match (1.9 total - 0.9 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.8 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Landvetter's strong first-half defense at home and Kongahalla's low first-half away scoring make both teams scoring in the first half unlikely.
- Landvetter IS first half goals conceded at home: 0.3 per match
- IK Kongahalla first half goals scored away: 0.4 per match
- Landvetter IS first half clean sheets at home: 7 in 10 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance62%