UEFA Europa LeagueFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Hradec Kralove3Tromso1

HT 1–1Thu 30 Jul 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 42%–58%On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 3–6FoulsFouls 14–11

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 08:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Hradec Kralove's 1-0 aggregate lead and strong home defense point to a cautious, low-scoring return leg.

The best value lies in Under 1.5 first-half goals (75% estimated probability, +5pts edge) and Hradec or Draw on the double chance (75%, +10pts edge), while Tromso's need to chase makes a home win at 2.75 an intriguing longshot.

Context

Hradec faced Pardubice on 26 July 2026, between the first leg (23 July) and this return (30 July).
- Assistant coach Adrian Rolko highlighted recovery as the main focus after the first leg.
- Tromso had no domestic match in the same period, giving them a fresher schedule.
On 19 July 2026, Hjerto-Dahl said he could not answer fans asking if it was his last game.
- Tromso's sporting director discussed the tension between player sales and European success.
- Hjerto-Dahl then missed a penalty in the first leg on 23 July 2026.
Hradec's official report said Tromso had most of the play in the first leg.
- Goalkeeper Adam Zadrazil saved a penalty before Mick van Buren scored the late winner.
- The club framed the result as a survival-and-take-your-chance performance.
UEFA Europa League second qualifying round uses aggregate scoring over two legs.
- Hradec won the first leg 1-0 away on 23 July 2026.
- If Tromso win by exactly one goal, the tie goes to extra time and possibly penalties.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hradec Kralove hold a 1-0 aggregate lead and strong home form, while Tromso must chase the game away from home, giving Hradec a tactical edge to exploit on the counter.
- Hradec Kralove won the first leg 1-0 away on 23 Jul 2026.
- Hradec Kralove have won 5 of their last 6 home matches across all competitions.
- Tromso have lost 2 of their last 5 away matches, including a 5-0 defeat to Bodo/Glimt.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHradec KraloveEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hradec Kralove's solid home defensive record and Tromso's inconsistent away form make it unlikely that Tromso will win in regulation, supporting a home win or draw.
- Hradec Kralove are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches (4W, 1D).
- Tromso have only 1 win in their last 5 away matches (1W, 2D, 2L).
- Hradec Kralove have conceded only 0.9 goals per game on average over the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHradec Kralove or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams showing similar first-half leading percentages and the first leg being level at the break, a cautious start leading to a halftime draw is the most likely outcome.
- Hradec Kralove were leading at halftime in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- Tromso were leading at halftime in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- The first leg was a draw at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is expected, and Hradec's home strength and second-half resilience could see them edge a win after a drawn first half, though the specific HT/FT combo is inherently low probability.
- Hradec Kralove have won 5 of their last 6 home matches, often after tight first halves.
- Tromso have drawn at halftime in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Hradec Kralove's late winner in the first leg shows their ability to score in the second half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Hradec KraloveEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring averages and the first leg was low-scoring; with Hradec protecting a lead, a cautious match with fewer than 2.5 goals is likely.
- Hradec Kralove average 1.7 goals for and 0.9 goals against over the last 15 matches.
- Tromso average 1.6 goals for and 1.1 goals against over the last 15 matches.
- The first leg ended 1-0, with both teams combining for only 1 goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hradec's defensive solidity and Tromso's struggles to score in the first leg suggest at least one team may fail to score, especially if Hradec sit deep to protect their lead.
- Hradec Kralove kept a clean sheet in the first leg away at Tromso.
- Hradec Kralove have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches.
- Tromso failed to score in 3 of their last 15 matches, including the first leg.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hradec's defensive organization and Tromso's occasional away scoring droughts give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet, though Tromso's attacking talent makes it a low-confidence call.
- Hradec Kralove kept a clean sheet in the first leg against Tromso.
- Hradec Kralove have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches.
- Tromso have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostTromso not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and the first leg was goalless at the break, making it highly probable that the first half will again see fewer than 1.5 goals.
- Hradec Kralove average 0.9 first-half goals and concede 0.4 first-half goals over the last 15 matches.
- Tromso average 0.7 first-half goals and concede 0.3 first-half goals over the last 15 matches.
- The first leg was 0-0 at halftime.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hradec's low corner count and Tromso's moderate numbers suggest a total under 9.5 corners, especially if the match is tight and possession-based.
- Hradec Kralove average only 2.7 corners per game over the last 15 matches.
- Tromso average 5.3 corners per game over the last 15 matches.
- In Hradec's last 5 home matches with corner data, total corners averaged 7.6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low disciplinary averages and the first leg was relatively clean, suggesting a low total card count in a match that may not be overly physical.
- Hradec Kralove average 1.3 yellow cards per game over the last 15 matches.
- Tromso average 1.2 yellow cards per game over the last 15 matches.
- The first leg saw only 3 yellow cards total (2 for Hradec, 1 for Tromso).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-1TromsovHradec KrálovéJul 23, 2026UEF

1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Hradec Kralove

W1-0TromsoJul 23UEF

D3-3Metalist 1925 KharkivJul 16FRI

D1-1Wolfsberger ACJul 13FRI

W3-0FC NordsjaellandJul 10FRI

W2-1Sparta Praha IIJul 4FRI

L1-2Sparta PrahaMay 24CZE

W3-1Slavia PrahaMay 17CZE

W1-0Slovan LiberecMay 13CZE

D1-1FK JablonecMay 10CZE

L1-3PlzenMay 3CZE

W1-0TepliceApr 25CZE

W2-1Slavia PrahaApr 19CZE

W3-1SlováckoApr 11CZE

W2-0Bohemians 1905Apr 5CZE

W1-0ChrudimMar 27FRI

Tromso

L0-1Hradec KrálovéJul 23UEF

W4-1Ham-KamJul 18ELI

W4-0ValerengaJul 11ELI

W4-1Orgryte ISJun 25FRI

D0-0KFUM OsloMay 29ELI

D1-1AalesundMay 25ELI

L0-5Bodo/GlimtMay 16ELI

W2-0MoldeMay 10ELI

D1-1StartMay 3ELI

L0-5BrannApr 29ELI

W3-1SandefjordApr 26ELI

W1-0Sarpsborg 08 FFApr 19ELI

D0-0LillestromApr 15ELI

W2-0Kristiansund BKApr 11ELI

W2-0RosenborgApr 6ELI

Squad & Injuries

Hradec Kralove

27 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Tromso

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hradec Kralove or Draw

Hradec Kralove

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Under 3.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hradec Kralove

No

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Hradec Kralove

Tromso

Squad & Injuries

Hradec Kralove

Tromso