EliteserienFull time

Predictions graded

Tromso4Valerenga0

HT 3–0Sat 11 Jul 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 13–18On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 4–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Jul 2026, 02:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Tromsø's strong home form makes them favourites, but the 1.70 odds offer no value.

The best betting edges are slim: Tromsø Over 1.5 goals (+1.2pts) and Over 9.5 corners (+1pt). Avoid Vålerenga outright, first-half goals, and high home goal lines due to poor historical support.

Context

Tromsø home record: 5W-2D-1L, 14 goals scored, 7 conceded in 8 matches.
- They have kept four clean sheets in those eight home games.
- Only one loss at home all season, a 0-5 defeat to Brann.
Vålerenga away record: 1W-1D-3L, 4 goals scored, 9 conceded in 5 matches.
- They have conceded in all five away games this season.
- Their only away win came against Rosenborg in March.
On 3 July, Vålerenga described the Fredrikstad friendly as the final test and said the squad were fully fired up to start playing for points again.
- The club's official messaging points to a focused post-break approach.
Vålerenga's official homepage confirmed 'Sæter tilbake i kamptroppen' on 4 July.
- His return adds depth to a midfield that has been inconsistent away from home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Tromso

1.70fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 59%

0.0ppshort

Tromsø's strong home form (5W-2D-1L) and Valerenga's poor away record (1W-1D-3L) give the hosts a structural edge, but the odds already price this in heavily.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' matches average above 2.5 goals in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have trended towards higher-scoring affairs.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Tromso tend to score early at home and Valerenga concede early away, making a first-half goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tromso's strong home form (5 wins in 8) and Valerenga's poor away record (1 win in 5) give the hosts a clear structural edge, reinforced by recent H2H dominance at home.
- Tromso home record: 5W-2D-1L, 14 goals for, 7 against in 8 matches
- Valerenga away record: 1W-1D-3L, 4 goals for, 9 against in 5 matches
- Tromso won last home H2H 2-1 (May 2025) and overall H2H last 5: 3 wins, 2 losses (all wins at home)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTromsoEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso's resilience at home (only one defeat) combined with Valerenga's travel struggles makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Tromso home: only 1 loss in 8 matches
- Valerenga away: 1 win in 5, 3 losses
- Tromso have drawn 4 of 13 overall, including 2 of last 5
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTromso or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tromso have a slight edge in first-half performance at home, but the low lead rate keeps confidence low.
- Tromso led at half-time in 40% of matches overall, and in 3 of 8 home games (37.5%)
- Valerenga trailed at half-time in 27% overall, and in 2 of 5 away games (40%)
- Tromso won the first half in last home H2H (1-0 at HT)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonTromsoEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tromso's stronger second-half performance at home contrasts with Valerenga's away struggles, but the sample is small.
- Tromso second-half goal difference at home: +3 (9 scored, 6 conceded in 8 games)
- Valerenga second-half goal difference away: -3 (2 scored, 5 conceded in 5 games)
- Tromso won the second half in 3 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableTromsoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tromso have a pattern of converting half-time leads into wins at home, but the overall frequency is modest.
- Tromso led at HT and won FT in 3 of 8 home matches (37.5%)
- Valerenga trailed at HT and lost FT in 2 of 5 away matches (40%)
- Tromso achieved HT/FT win in last home H2H
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableTromso/TromsoEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average above 2.5 goals in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have trended towards higher-scoring affairs.
- Tromso home matches average 2.6 total goals (14 for, 7 against in 8 games)
- Valerenga away matches average 2.6 total goals (4 for, 9 against in 5 games)
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso consistently find the net at home but also concede regularly, while Valerenga have scored in most away games and always concede, pointing to both teams scoring.
- Tromso scored in 7 of 8 home matches, conceded in 5 of 8
- Valerenga scored in 3 of 5 away matches, conceded in all 5
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso's home scoring rate (over 1.5 in 62.5% of games) and Valerenga's leaky away defense support the hosts netting at least twice.
- Tromso scored 2+ goals in 5 of 8 home matches
- Tromso average 1.75 goals per home game
- Valerenga concede 1.8 goals per away game on average
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTromso over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso tend to score early at home and Valerenga concede early away, making a first-half goal likely.
- Tromso first-half goals: 0.5 per game overall, but 0.75 at home (6 goals in 8 home first halves)
- Valerenga first-half goals conceded: 0.8 per game overall, 1.0 away (5 conceded in 5 away first halves)
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts, and their combined averages exceed 9.5, supported by recent H2H trends.
- Tromso average 5.8 corners per game, concede 4.5 corners per game (total 10.3)
- Valerenga average 7.2 corners per game, concede 5.3 corners per game (total 12.5)
- Last 5 H2H with corner data: 3 of 4 had over 9.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tromso's home corner rate hovers around 6, and Valerenga's away concession rate is similar, making over 5.5 a marginal but supported call.
- Tromso average 5.8 corners overall, 6.1 at home (based on available home corner data)
- Valerenga concede 5.3 corners per game overall, 5.8 away
- Tromso had 6+ corners in 5 of last 8 home matches
BetBugs · Home CornerslostTromso over 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are near the 3.5 line, with Valerenga's higher discipline issues pushing the total slightly over, but confidence is low due to variance.
- Tromso average 1.3 yellow cards per game, Valerenga 2.1 (total 3.4)
- Combined average cards in Tromso home games: 2.6 (Tromso 1.3, opponents 1.3)
- Combined average cards in Valerenga away games: 3.4 (Valerenga 2.0, opponents 1.4)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L1-0ValerengavTromsoOct 4, 2025ELI

W2-1TromsovValerengaMay 31, 2025ELI

W1-4ValerengavTromsoMar 15, 2025FRI

L1-0ValerengavTromsoMay 1, 2024NM

L3-1ValerengavTromsoMar 17, 2024FRI

Valerenga: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Tromso Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)	13	7	4	2	18-14	25	DDLWD
9	Valerenga	11	4	2	5	13-17	14	WLWLD

11pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Tromso

W4-1Orgryte ISJun 25FRI

D0-0KFUM OsloMay 29ELI

D1-1AalesundMay 25ELI

L0-5Bodo/GlimtMay 16ELI

W2-0MoldeMay 10ELI

D1-1StartMay 3ELI

L0-5BrannApr 29ELI

W3-1SandefjordApr 26ELI

W1-0Sarpsborg 08 FFApr 19ELI

D0-0LillestromApr 15ELI

W2-0Kristiansund BKApr 11ELI

W2-0RosenborgApr 6ELI

W1-0StartMar 27FRI

W2-1BrannMar 22ELI

W4-0FredrikstadMar 15ELI

Valerenga

W3-1FredrikstadJul 4FRI

L1-2GaisJun 27FRI

D1-1IFK GoteborgJun 18FRI

W3-1Kristiansund BKMay 29ELI

L0-2StartMay 25ELI

W3-2Sarpsborg 08 FFMay 16ELI

L0-1Ham-KamMay 8ELI

D2-2KFUM OsloMay 3ELI

L1-5MoldeApr 26ELI

L0-2LillestromApr 19ELI

D1-1FredrikstadApr 12ELI

L0-1VikingApr 6ELI

D3-3IFK GoteborgMar 27FRI

W2-0RosenborgMar 22ELI

W1-0SandefjordMar 15ELI

Squad & Injuries

Tromso

23 available

Attackers4

Midfielders6

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Valerenga

24 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Over 9.5

Tromso

Tromsø or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Valerenga

Over 1.5

Tromso over 5.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Tromso

Valerenga

Squad & Injuries

Tromso

Valerenga