Orebro SK1Nordic United1

HT 0–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 17–16On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 9–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 01:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Nordic United are the value side at 2.63 to win outright (model 42% vs implied 38%), and the double chance Draw or Nordic United at 1.60 offers a 5.5-point edge.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and first-half markets, as the odds are efficiently priced or overpriced relative to the model.

Context

Orebro SK are 14th in the Superettan with 23 points from 23 matches, sitting in the relegation playoff position.
They are level on points with 13th-placed Norrby IF and only one point above 15th-placed IK brage, so a win could lift them out of immediate danger. Their home record is weak with three wins, three draws, and five losses, scoring nine and conceding 14 in 11 home games. This match is important for Orebro SK to improve their position and avoid dropping into the automatic relegation places.
- Orebro SK are 14th with 23 points, level with 13th-placed Norrby IF and one point above 15th-placed IK brage.
- Their home record is 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses with 9 goals scored and 14 conceded.
Nordic United hosted Orebro SK on 19 July 2026 in the Superettan.
Nordic United won that match 2-0, with both goals coming in the first half. That is the only recent meeting between the teams, so it is a limited sample, but it shows Nordic United can keep a clean sheet against Orebro SK. Orebro SK will need to improve on that performance if they want to get a result this time.
- On 2026-07-19, Nordic United beat Orebro SK 2-0 at home in the Superettan.
Orebro SK have played 11 home matches in the Superettan this season.
They have scored nine goals and conceded 14 at home, averaging under one goal per game. Their recent home form includes a 0-1 loss to Ostersunds FK and a 0-0 draw with Oddevold, showing they can be shut out. Nordic United have conceded 14 goals in 11 away games, so Orebro SK may find some chances, but their home scoring record is a concern.
- Orebro SK have scored 9 goals in 11 home matches, conceding 14.
- In their last two home league games, they lost 0-1 to Ostersunds FK and drew 0-0 with Oddevold.
Nordic United have played 11 away matches in the Superettan this season.
They have a balanced away record with four wins, four draws, and three losses, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Their recent away results include a 2-1 win at Osters IF and a 1-1 draw at Falkenbergs FF, so they are capable of getting results. However, they also lost 0-2 at Landskrona BoIS, showing inconsistency. This suggests the match could be competitive.
- Nordic United's away record is 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded.
- Recent away results: 2-1 win at Osters IF, 1-1 draw at Falkenbergs FF, 0-2 loss at Landskrona BoIS.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Orebro SK or Draw

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Orebro's strong first-half home record and Nordic United's low first-half lead rate make Orebro or draw the safer first-half double chance.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly find the net and concede, making BTTS a coin-flip with a slight lean to yes.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.20fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

The low first-half scoring averages for both teams make it more likely that at least one team fails to score before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nordic United's superior league position, away form, and recent H2H win give them the edge, though Orebro's home motivation keeps it close.
- Nordic United are 6th with 35 points, 12 points ahead of Orebro SK (14th, 23 points).
- Nordic United won the only recent H2H meeting 2-0 at home on 2026-07-19.
- Orebro SK have only 3 wins in 11 home matches this season (3W 3D 5L).
- Nordic United away record: 4W 4D 3L in 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNordic UnitedEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orebro's poor home scoring and both teams' high draw rates make a Nordic United win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Orebro SK home record: 3W 3D 5L, with only 9 goals scored in 11 home games.
- Nordic United away record: 4W 4D 3L, with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded.
- Orebro SK have drawn 8 of 23 league matches this season.
- Nordic United have drawn 8 of 23 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Nordic UnitedEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Orebro's strong first-half home record gives them a slight edge to lead at the break, though overall quality favors Nordic United.
- Orebro SK led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- Nordic United led at half-time in only 27% of recent matches.
- Orebro SK average 1.0 first-half goals scored at home in recent form.
- Nordic United average 0.7 first-half goals scored away in recent form.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostOrebro SKEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nordic United's superior squad depth and away scoring ability may see them edge the second half, though confidence is low.
- Nordic United have a better overall goal difference (+1 vs -10).
- Nordic United scored 14 away goals this season, while Orebro conceded 14 at home.
- Orebro SK have lost 5 of 11 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNordic UnitedEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a Nordic United breakthrough is a plausible pattern given both teams' half-time draw tendencies.
- Orebro SK drew at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Nordic United drew at half-time in 46% of recent matches.
- Nordic United won the only H2H meeting this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Nordic UnitedEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nordic United winning both halves is unlikely but possible if they replicate their dominant H2H performance.
- Nordic United won both halves in their 2-0 H2H victory over Orebro SK.
- Nordic United have won 4 away matches this season.
- Orebro SK have lost 5 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostNordic UnitedEstimated chance12%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Orebro's strong first-half home record and Nordic United's low first-half lead rate make Orebro or draw the safer first-half double chance.
- Orebro SK led at half-time in 47% of recent matches and drew in 40%.
- Nordic United led at half-time in only 27% of recent matches.
- Orebro SK average 1.0 first-half goals at home, while Nordic United average 0.7 away.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonOrebro SK or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and Nordic United's away matches trending over 2.5 goals support a moderate lean to the over.
- Orebro SK average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in recent form.
- Nordic United average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match in recent form.
- Orebro SK home matches average 2.09 total goals (9 scored, 14 conceded in 11 games).
- Nordic United away matches average 2.55 total goals (14 scored, 14 conceded in 11 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and concede, making BTTS a coin-flip with a slight lean to yes.
- Orebro SK have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Nordic United have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Orebro SK have conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Nordic United have conceded in 7 of their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first-half scoring rates, and Orebro's strong first-half home tendency supports at least one goal before the break.
- Orebro SK average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in recent form.
- Nordic United average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in recent form.
- Orebro SK led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- Nordic United led at half-time in 27% and trailed in 27% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The derived second-half goal expectation is below 1.5, making the over a low-confidence lean based on match flow uncertainty.
- Orebro SK average 1.5 total goals per match, with 1.0 in the first half, implying 0.5 in the second half.
- Nordic United average 1.4 total goals per match, with 0.7 in the first half, implying 0.7 in the second half.
- Combined second-half goal expectation is approximately 1.2 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring averages for both teams make it more likely that at least one team fails to score before the break.
- Orebro SK average 0.5 first-half goals conceded.
- Nordic United average 0.5 first-half goals conceded.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, with Nordic United averaging 0.7 first-half goals.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages suggest a high total, but limited recent data for Orebro makes this a low-confidence lean.
- Orebro SK average 4.6 corners per match in recent form.
- Nordic United average 7.6 corners per match in recent form.
- Combined average corners from both teams is 12.2 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average slightly exceeds the line, but limited sample size keeps confidence low.
- Orebro SK average 4.0 shots on target per match in recent form.
- Nordic United average 5.4 shots on target per match in recent form.
- Combined average shots on target is 9.4 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%