First LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Septemvri Sofia0CSKA Sofia3

HT 0–1Sun 9 Aug 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 00:12 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA’s Europa League congestion makes the short odds on an away win unattractive.

Instead, target the first-half markets: First Half Draw (2.30) and First Half Under 0.5 Goals (2.90) offer clear value given both teams’ slow starts and low-scoring first halves. Avoid backing CSKA outright or the double chance due to poor pricing and rotation risk.

Context

CSKA's Europa League schedule shows an away leg on 7 August and a return leg on 14 August.
- This league match falls on 9 August, leaving only one full rest day between the away leg and this fixture.
- No confirmed team news, but the tight schedule makes rotation likely to manage player fatigue.
Septemvri lost 3-0 to Levski Sofia and 2-1 to Lokomotiv Plovdiv, scoring once from open play.
- They drew 1-1 at home to Arda Kardzhali, their only point, with a single goal.
- In their last 5 league matches overall, they averaged 1.3 goals but have been shut out twice in the last three.
CSKA beat Dunav Ruse 2-1 and Botev Plovdiv 3-2 at home.
- Their away league match was a 0-0 draw at Slavia Sofia on 20 July.
- Overall, CSKA are unbeaten in 3 league games (W2 D1) but have only 1 away point.
Septemvri won 2-0 at home on 28 February 2026 in the league.
- CSKA had won the previous three league meetings, including a 1-0 away win in March 2025.
- Overall H2H: CSKA 13 wins, Septemvri 3 wins, no draws in 16 listed meetings.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA Sofia's superior league form and historical dominance, combined with Septemvri's poor start and defensive struggles, make an away win the most likely outcome, though CSKA's European fixture congestion introduces some uncertainty.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 3 league matches (W2 D1) and sit 5th with 7 points, while Septemvri are 12th with 1 point from 3 games (D1 L2).
- Septemvri have lost both away league matches this season, conceding 5 goals, and overall have a -4 goal difference.
- CSKA Sofia won the most recent league H2H away at Septemvri 1-0 in March 2025, and lead the overall H2H 13 wins to 3 with no draws.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Septemvri's poor form and CSKA's consistency, a double chance covering a CSKA win or draw provides high safety, as Septemvri's only point came at home against a mid-table side.
- Septemvri have not won any of their last 3 league matches (D1 L2) and have only 1 point from 3 games.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in the league this season (W2 D1) and have lost only 1 of their last 15 matches across all competitions.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have seen 4 wins for the home side on the day, but CSKA have won 3 of those 5 overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or CSKA SofiaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with a high frequency of level scores at the break, making a first-half draw the most likely scenario.
- Septemvri have been drawing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- CSKA Sofia have been drawing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- The last 3 H2H meetings have seen 2 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA's tendency to score late and Septemvri's defensive frailties after the break suggest the visitors could edge the second half, though the low confidence reflects the unpredictability of half-specific outcomes.
- CSKA Sofia have scored 4 of their 5 league goals this season in the second half.
- Septemvri have conceded 4 of their 6 league goals this season in the second half.
- In the last 3 H2H meetings, the second half has produced more goals than the first in 2 of those matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonCSKA SofiaEstimated chance45%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have trended toward lower-scoring affairs recently, and with CSKA potentially rotating due to European commitments, a tight, low-scoring contest is likely.
- Septemvri's last 5 league matches have averaged 2.0 total goals, with 3 of those 5 finishing under 2.5.
- CSKA Sofia's last 5 league matches have averaged 2.2 total goals, with 3 of those 5 finishing under 2.5.
- The last 3 H2H league meetings have produced 2, 4, and 1 goals respectively, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Septemvri's attacking struggles and CSKA's solid defensive record on the road suggest at least one side will fail to score, especially if CSKA prioritize defensive solidity amid fixture congestion.
- Septemvri have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 league matches, netting only 2 goals total.
- CSKA Sofia kept a clean sheet in their only away league match this season (0-0 vs Slavia Sofia).
- In the last 3 H2H league meetings, both teams scored only once.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While CSKA's defensive record is strong, Septemvri's home advantage and desperation for points could lead to a goal, making a clean sheet for the visitors a low-confidence but plausible outcome.
- CSKA Sofia kept a clean sheet in their only away league match this season (0-0 vs Slavia Sofia).
- Septemvri have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 league matches.
- CSKA have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSeptemvri Sofia not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first halves in matches involving these teams are typically low-scoring, and with both sides likely to be cautious early, a goalless first half is a strong possibility.
- Septemvri's last 5 league matches have seen only 2 first-half goals total (0.4 per game).
- CSKA Sofia's last 5 league matches have seen 4 first-half goals total (0.8 per game), but 3 of those 5 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- The last 3 H2H meetings have produced only 1 first-half goal combined.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With limited corner data, the low average for Septemvri and the likelihood of a tight, low-possession game point to a low total corner count, though confidence is low due to missing CSKA corner stats.
- Septemvri average only 3 corners per game in their last 15 matches.
- Corner data for CSKA Sofia is unavailable, but their possession stats are missing, suggesting they may not dominate territorially.
- The only recent match with corner data for Septemvri saw 6 total corners (2 for Septemvri, 4 for opponent).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Odds are too short given the uncertainty from CSKA's European fixture congestion and possible rotation.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W2-0Septemvri SofiavCSKA SofiaFeb 28, 2026FIR

L4-0CSKA SofiavSeptemvri SofiaOct 11, 2025FRI

L3-1CSKA SofiavSeptemvri SofiaSep 13, 2025FIR

L0-1Septemvri SofiavCSKA SofiaMar 29, 2025FIR

W0-1CSKA SofiavSeptemvri SofiaOct 5, 2024FIR

Septemvri Sofia: 2 clean sheetsCSKA Sofia: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Septemvri Sofia Relegation Playoffs	3	0	1	2	2-6	1	LLD
5	CSKA Sofia Play-offs playoffs	3	2	1	0	5-3	7	WWD

6pt gap between teamsSeptemvri Sofia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Septemvri Sofia

L0-3Levski SofiaAug 1FIR

L1-2Lokomotiv PlovdivJul 26FIR

D1-1Arda KardzhaliJul 18FIR

L0-1LudogoretsJul 10FRI

W2-1Hebar 1918Jul 7FRI

L2-3Slavia SofiaJul 4FRI

W2-0VihrenJul 1FRI

W3-0MarekJun 27FRI

W2-1Yantra 2019May 28FIR

D1-1DobrudzhaMay 22FIR

W1-0BeroeMay 18FIR

W1-0Spartak VarnaMay 14FIR

D1-1Botev VratsaMay 10FIR

L1-2Slavia SofiaMay 6FIR

D1-1MontanaMay 1FIR

CSKA Sofia

W2-1Dunav RuseAug 2FIR

W3-2Botev PlovdivJul 27FIR

D0-0QarabagJul 23UEF

D0-0Slavia SofiaJul 20FIR

W2-1Derry CityJul 16UEF

W3-2Derry CityJul 9UEF

W3-0MarekJul 3FRI

W3-2Odra OpoleJun 28FRI

L0-4PolessyaJun 24FRI

W2-1Brinje-GrosupljeJun 20FRI

L0-1LudogoretsMay 25FIR

L0-2Levski SofiaMay 16FIR

D1-1CSKA 1948May 13FIR

W1-0CSKA 1948May 8FIR

W1-0LudogoretsMay 3FIR

Squad & Injuries

Septemvri Sofia

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

CSKA Sofia

29 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Under 0.5

Draw or CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia

Result3 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

CSKA Sofia

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Septemvri Sofia

CSKA Sofia

Squad & Injuries

Septemvri Sofia

CSKA Sofia