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Predictions graded

Levski Sofia3Septemvri Sofia0

HT 1–0Sat 1 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–0100%

Edges4–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Levski's overwhelming H2H dominance is tempered by a 70.5-hour turnaround from a Champions League away match, making short odds on a home win poor value.

Wait for lineups before backing any Levski handicap, as rotation and fatigue could lead to a closer contest than the market expects.

Context

Levski's away match at Universitatea Craiova kicked off at 20:30 on 29 July, with this match at 19:00 on 1 August.
- Velázquez stated his focus was on the European tie and that league selections would be managed around European workload.
- The short rest includes return travel, increasing the risk of a flat performance or heavy rotation.
Last five H2H results: 7-0, 2-1, 1-0, 3-2, 2-0 in Levski's favor.
- Levski scored 2+ goals in four of those five matches.
- Septemvri failed to score in three of the last five H2H encounters.
Septemvri trailed at halftime in the decisive playoff before scoring twice in the second half, including a late winner.
- New coach Simão Freitas took over ahead of the 2026/27 season, with the team still finding its footing.
- Septemvri have 1 point from 2 league games this season, sitting 13th in the table.
Levski conceded 0.5 goals per game over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
- They kept 8 clean sheets in that span.
- In their last home league match, they beat Dunav Ruse 2-0.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Levski Sofia

1.21fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Levski's overwhelming H2H dominance and superior form make them clear favorites, though the odds are too short to offer value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Levski Sofia or Draw

1.05fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 95%

0.0ppshort

Levski's strong overall form and Septemvri's struggles make a Levski win or draw highly probable, but the odds offer no value.

1 St Half Resultnot gradableUncertainty band: Slight lean

Levski Sofia

1.56fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64%

0.0ppshort

Levski's tendency to start strong and Septemvri's slow starts make a home halftime lead likely, but the odds are slightly short.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Levski scored a first-half goal in 10 of last 15 matches, and Septemvri conceded a first-half goal in 7 of last 15.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

−8.5ppshort

Levski scored 2+ goals in 10 of last 15 matches, and Septemvri conceded 2+ goals in 2 of last 3 away matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's overwhelming H2H dominance and superior form make them clear favorites, though fatigue from a Champions League match 70.5 hours earlier introduces some risk.
- Levski won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings, aggregate 14-4, including 7-0 home win on 30 Nov 2025.
- Levski home form: 2.2 goals scored per game, 0.5 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Septemvri away record this season: 0 wins, 1 loss, 1 goal scored, 2 conceded in 1 match.
- Levski top of league with 6 points from 2 games; Septemvri 13th with 1 point.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLevski SofiaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Levski's strong overall form and Septemvri's struggles, a Levski win or draw is highly probable, covering the fatigue risk.
- Levski unbeaten in 13 of last 15 matches (all competitions).
- Septemvri have not won away this season and lost 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Levski home record: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses in league this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLevski Sofia or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's tendency to start strong and Septemvri's slow starts make a home halftime lead likely.
- Levski led at halftime in 47% of last 15 matches, trailing only 7%.
- Septemvri trailed at halftime in 36% of matches, led only 21%.
- In last 5 H2H, Levski led at halftime in 3 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLevski SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's ability to control matches from the start supports a HT/FT double, but fatigue and potential rotation lower confidence.
- Levski led at halftime and won in 6 of last 15 matches.
- Septemvri lost when trailing at halftime in 4 of 5 such cases.
- In last 5 H2H, Levski led at halftime and won in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableLevski Sofia / Levski SofiaEstimated chance45%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's attacking output and the high-scoring H2H history suggest goals, though potential rotation could reduce efficiency.
- Levski average 2.2 goals scored per game over last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 3.6 goals per game.
- Septemvri conceded 3 goals in 2 league games this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's strong defense and Septemvri's limited attacking threat make a clean sheet for the home side likely.
- Levski kept 8 clean sheets in last 15 matches, conceding only 0.5 goals per game.
- Septemvri scored only 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
- In last 5 H2H, Septemvri failed to score in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's defensive solidity and Septemvri's scoring difficulties point to a home clean sheet.
- Levski conceded only 0.5 goals per game over last 15 matches.
- Septemvri failed to score in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Levski kept a clean sheet in their last home league match (2-0 vs Dunav Ruse).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSeptemvri Sofia not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's consistent scoring record and Septemvri's defensive vulnerabilities make multiple home goals probable.
- Levski scored 2+ goals in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Levski scored 7, 2, 1, 3, 5 in last 5 H2H home games vs Septemvri.
- Septemvri conceded 2+ goals in 2 of last 3 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLevski Sofia over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' patterns indicate a high likelihood of at least one goal in the first half.
- Levski scored a first-half goal in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Septemvri conceded a first-half goal in 7 of last 15 matches.
- In last 5 H2H, there was a first-half goal in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fatigue could lead to more open play later, but limited data on second-half specifics reduces confidence.
- Levski scored 60% of their goals in the second half over last 15 matches.
- Septemvri conceded 60% of their goals in the second half.
- Last 5 H2H averaged 2.0 second-half goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's attacking style generates corners, but limited corner data for both teams makes this a low-confidence call.
- Levski average 7 corners per game over last 15 matches.
- Septemvri average 3.7 corners per game, but concede more on the road.
- In the only recent match with corner data (Levski vs Borac), total corners were 9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Septemvri's disciplinary record suggests cards, but lack of consistent card data for Levski limits confidence.
- Septemvri average 3 yellow cards per game over last 15 matches.
- Levski average 0 yellow cards, but data is sparse (only 1 match with card data).
- In the only match with card data for both (Septemvri vs Dobrudzha), total cards were 11 yellows and 4 reds.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W7-0Levski SofiavSeptemvri SofiaNov 30, 2025FIR

W1-2Septemvri SofiavLevski SofiaJul 27, 2025FIR

W0-1Septemvri SofiavLevski SofiaApr 21, 2025FIR

L2-3Levski SofiavSeptemvri SofiaNov 9, 2024FIR

W5-0Levski SofiavSeptemvri SofiaJun 29, 2024FRI

Levski Sofia: 3 clean sheets4.2 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Levski Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)	2	2	0	0	4-2	6	WW
13	Septemvri Sofia efbet League (Relegation Group)	2	0	1	1	2-3	1	LD

5pt gap between teamsLevski Sofia leads the leagueSeptemvri Sofia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Levski Sofia

W2-1Lokomotiv SofiaJul 25FIR

W1-0Universitatea CraiovaJul 22UEF

W2-1Dunav RuseJul 17FIR

W4-0Borac Banja LukaJul 14UEF

D1-1Borac Banja LukaJul 7UEF

W5-0Radnik SurdulicaJun 30FRI

D1-1Botev VratsaJun 27FRI

W6-0Etar Veliko TarnovoJun 23FRI

W4-0Akademik SvishtovJun 19FRI

D0-0CSKA 1948May 25FIR

W2-0CSKA SofiaMay 16FIR

D1-1LudogoretsMay 13FIR

L0-1LudogoretsMay 9FIR

W1-0CSKA 1948May 2FIR

W3-1CSKA SofiaApr 25FIR

Septemvri Sofia

L1-2Lokomotiv PlovdivJul 26FIR

D1-1Arda KardzhaliJul 18FIR

L0-1LudogoretsJul 10FRI

W2-1Hebar 1918Jul 7FRI

L2-3Slavia SofiaJul 4FRI

W2-0VihrenJul 1FRI

W3-0MarekJun 27FRI

W2-1Yantra 2019May 28FIR

D1-1DobrudzhaMay 22FIR

W1-0BeroeMay 18FIR

W1-0Spartak VarnaMay 14FIR

D1-1Botev VratsaMay 10FIR

L1-2Slavia SofiaMay 6FIR

D1-1MontanaMay 1FIR

D1-1Lokomotiv SofiaApr 27FIR

Squad & Injuries

Levski Sofia

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Septemvri Sofia

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2