Lazio
Market 30.3% · BetBugs 40%
Lazio's superior recent Serie A form and the latest H2H win give them a slight edge, though Bologna's home advantage keeps it close.
Serie AFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Lazio hold a slight form edge and the latest H2H win, making Draw or Lazio (1.67) and Lazio outright (3.30) the best value plays.
Avoid Over 0.5 first-half goals (1.38) and Bologna or Draw (1.30), as the market overprices both relative to the model.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
LazioMarket 30.3% · BetBugs 40%
Lazio's superior recent Serie A form and the latest H2H win give them a slight edge, though Bologna's home advantage keeps it close.
Market 59.9% · BetBugs 65%
Bologna's poor home form and Lazio's solid away record make a home win unlikely, supporting the double chance for the away side.
Market 47.6% · BetBugs 55%
Both teams have shown moderate scoring in recent Serie A games, and the H2H has seen goals in most meetings.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 47% leaves no cushion vs our 35% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BolognaChampions League league stage | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 |
| 10 | Lazio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 |

