Juventus - Bologna

🇮🇹 Serie AUpcoming

Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 18:45

Quick Take

**Back the draw at 4.33** (30% model probability vs. 23% implied, +7pts edge) in a fixture historically dominated by draws and now compounded by attacking injuries on both sides; alternatively, pair **Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.50** (72% confidence, +5.3pts edge) for a highe...

Double ChanceJuventus or Draw82%N/A

Match WinnerDraw30%+7.0pp

1st Half Goals Over/UnderUnder 1.50.72%+5.3pp

Context Signals

Match Winner — Draw

HIGHMarket

H2H record shows 4 of last 5 fixtures ended in draws (1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 1-1). Juventus draw 37.5% of home matches despite attacking strength, while Vlahovic and Milik injuries blunt goal output. Bologna's away form (W8-D4-L4) is resilient; the fixture pattern suggests a tight, low-scoring affair.

•Last 5 H2H: 4 draws (DDDD-W pattern)
•Juventus home: W9 D6 L1 — 37.5% draw rate
•Both teams missing key strikers (Vlahovic, Milik, Dallinga, Dominguez)

Double Chance — Juventus or Draw

MEDIUMMarket

Juventus' home record is near-impregnable (1 loss in 16 games, 93.75% unbeaten). Bologna have zero Series A wins vs Juventus in 15 years and are 0-5 in recent H2H. The market is confident, but the HIGH conviction on Juventus avoiding defeat (backed by 16-game home data) makes this informational despite tight odds.

•Juventus home record 2025/26: W9 D6 L1 (93.75% unbeaten)
•Bologna vs Juventus: 0 wins in 15+ years (last win: Feb 2011)
•Bologna away record: W8 D4 L4 (not elite defensively)

1st Half Goals Over/Under — Under 1.5

MEDIUMMarket

Both teams' first-half goal averages are historically very low (Juventus 1.2 combined, Bologna 0.5 combined), and the recent H2H pattern shows frequent goalless first halves—strong evidence of a low-scoring opening 45 minutes despite the overall match context.

•Juventus avg 0.7 FH goals scored, 0.5 conceded (1.2 total)
•Bologna avg 0.4 FH goals scored, 0.1 conceded (0.5 total)
•3 of last 5 H2H had 0-0 at halftime

Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5

MEDIUMMarket

Juventus's elite home defensive record (0.81 goals against per game) combined with severe attacking injuries on both sides (Vlahovic/Milik and Dallinga/Dominguez out) and the two-match H2H trend of low-scoring results (0-1, 1-1) support a below-2.5-goal outcome.

•Juventus home GA: 0.81/game (13 in 16 matches)
•Both teams missing primary strikers: Vlahovic/Milik (Juve), Dallinga/Dominguez (Bologna)
•Last 2 H2H meetings: 1 and 1 total goals respectively

Betting Edges

Implied: 90.1% → Our estimate: 82% → Edge: CONFIRMED

•Juventus home record 2025/26: W9 D6 L1 (93.75% unbeaten)
•Bologna vs Juventus: 0 wins in 15+ years (last win: Feb 2011)
•Bologna away record: W8 D4 L4 (not elite defensively)

Implied: 23% → Our estimate: 30% → Edge: +7pts

•Last 5 H2H: 4 draws (DDDD-W pattern)
•Juventus home: W9 D6 L1 — 37.5% draw rate
•Both teams missing key strikers (Vlahovic, Milik, Dallinga, Dominguez)

Implied: 66.7% → Our estimate: 72% → Edge: +5.3pts

•Juventus avg 0.7 FH goals scored, 0.5 conceded (1.2 total)
•Bologna avg 0.4 FH goals scored, 0.1 conceded (0.5 total)
•3 of last 5 H2H had 0-0 at halftime

Implied: 47.6% → Our estimate: 55% → Edge: +7.4pts

•Juventus home GA: 0.81/game (13 in 16 matches)
•Both teams missing primary strikers: Vlahovic/Milik (Juve), Dallinga/Dominguez (Bologna)
•Last 2 H2H meetings: 1 and 1 total goals respectively

Model probabilities

Double ChanceJuventus or Draw82%High

The convergence of Juventus's near-impregnable home record (1 loss in 16), Bologna's 15-year winless H2H run in Serie A, and the motivation gap for CL qualification makes a Bologna win extremely unlikely.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.572%High

Both teams' first-half goal averages are low (Juve 1.2 total FH goals, Bologna 0.5), and the H2H pattern shows frequent goalless first halves, making under 1.5 FH goals highly probable.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Corners Over/UnderUnder 10.558%Medium

The combined corner average sits right around 10.3 but with both teams showing frequent sub-10 total outputs in individual matches, and tight tactical matches historically keeping corner counts moderate, under 10.5 has a slight edge.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.558%Medium

The high combined foul rate (~23 per game) and Bologna's particularly physical style (12.7 fouls/game) create frequent card-worthy situations, pushing the total cards expectation above 3.5 when including cards to both sides.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.555%Medium

Juventus's elite home defensive record combined with severe attacking injuries on both sides and the recent H2H trend toward lower-scoring games (the last two producing 1 and 2 total goals) favors under 2.5 goals.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Both Teams to ScoreNo52%Medium

Juventus's defensive solidity at home (0.81 GA/game) and Bologna's depleted attack (two strikers out, only 4.0 SOT average) make a Bologna blank realistic, supported by the most recent H2H clean sheet.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Match WinnerJuventus48%Medium

Juventus's exceptional home record (1 loss in 16), CL qualification motivation, and complete H2H psychological dominance over Bologna make them clear favorites, though Vlahovic's absence and Juve's tendency to draw at home (6 draws) temper the probability.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Home Goals TotalJuventus Over 1.545%Low

While Juventus average 2.0 goals at home and Bologna's away defense is mediocre, the loss of both Vlahovic and Milik significantly hampers Juve's finishing ability, making 2+ goals uncertain despite the favorable venue.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Home Clean SheetYes40%Low

Juventus's recent clean sheet streak (3 in 5) and Bologna's depleted attack give reasonable prospects for a shutout, though Bologna's strong away scoring record (1.63/game) and 4 draws in 5 H2H (all with goals) introduces uncertainty.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Match WinnerDraw30%Medium

The H2H record is overwhelmingly draw-heavy (4 of last 5), Juventus draw frequently at home (37.5%), and both teams' attacking injuries point toward a tight, hard-to-separate contest.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner Juventus @ 1.48:Market has already priced Juventus very high (67.6% implied) while predictor confidence is only MEDIUM at 48%. The 19.6-point gap suggests either hidden information (injuries priced in) or a weak directional thesis. At -300 implied odds, there's minimal margin for error; avoid this at current pricing.

Asian Handicap Juventus -1.5 @ 2.25:Vlahovic and Milik absences reduce Juventus' attacking potency significantly. While they're home favorites, expecting them to win by 2+ goals (implied ~44%) is aggressive given both teams' missing attacking talent. Vig is built in; skip in favor of safer structures.

1st Half Both Teams to Score Yes @ 4.33:Conflicts with stronger conviction play (Under 1.5 FH @ 72% confidence). For both teams to score in the first half requires at least 2 goals combined, contradicting the historical low FH-scoring thesis. Trap market that looks valuable in isolation but undermines the core thesis.

**Juventus vs Bologna: A Low-Scoring Classic in the Making** Juventus enter this clash as overwhelming favorites, backed by one of Serie A's strongest home records this season: nine wins, six draws, and just one loss across 16 matches (32 goals for, 13 against). Their 93.75% unbeaten rate at the Allianz Stadium provides a fortress mentality, especially with CL qualification still uncertain at fourth place (60 points, just two ahead of fifth). However, manager Luciano Spalletti's recent contract extension through 2028 signals continuity rather than urgency—a stabilizing factor.

Recent Form

Juventus

W1-0AtalantaApr 11SA

W2-0GenoaApr 6SA

D1-1SassuoloMar 21SA

W1-0UdineseMar 14SA

W4-0PisaMar 7SA

D3-3AS RomaMar 1SA

L0-2ComoFeb 21SA

L2-5GalatasarayFeb 17UEF

L2-3InterFeb 14SA

D2-2LazioFeb 8SA

Bologna

W2-0LecceApr 12SA

L1-3Aston VillaApr 9UEF

W2-1CremoneseApr 5SA

L0-2LazioMar 22SA

W1-0SassuoloMar 15SA

D1-1AS RomaMar 12UEF

L1-2Hellas VeronaMar 8SA

W1-0PisaMar 2SA

W1-0BrannFeb 26UEF

W1-0UdineseFeb 23SA

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Juventus Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	32	17	9	6	55-29	60	WWDWW
8	Bologna	32	14	6	12	42-37	48	WWLWL

12pt gap between teams

Head-to-Head

1W · 4D · 0W

W0-1BolognavJuventusDec 14, 2025SA

D1-1BolognavJuventusMay 4, 2025SA

D2-2JuventusvBolognaDec 7, 2024SA

D3-3BolognavJuventusMay 20, 2024SA

D1-1JuventusvBolognaAug 27, 2023SA

Juventus unbeaten in 5 meetings3 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Juventus

8 out

Attackers4/9

×#14

×#9

×#14

×#9

Midfielders9

Defenders2/8

×#32

Goalkeeper2/8

×#1

#32 J. Cabal — Muscle Injury

#14 A. Milik — Muscle Injury

#1 M. Perin — Injury

#9 D. Vlahovic — Calf Injury

#32 J. Cabal — Muscle Injury

#14 A. Milik — Muscle Injury

#1 M. Perin — Injury

#9 D. Vlahovic — Calf Injury

Bologna

8 out

Attackers4/7

×#24

×#30

×#24

×#30

Midfielders8

Defenders13

Goalkeeper2/5

×#1

K. Bonifazi — Inactive

#24 T. Dallinga — Injury

#30 B. Dominguez — Hip Injury

#1 L. Skorupski — Muscle Injury

K. Bonifazi — Inactive

#24 T. Dallinga — Injury

#30 B. Dominguez — Hip Injury

#1 L. Skorupski — Muscle Injury