Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Lazio2Pisa1

HT 2–1Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 15–8On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 5–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 07:51 · Europe/Bucharest

A dead-rubber finale between Lazio and relegated Pisa is likely to start slowly, with both teams' dreadful first-half scoring records making Under 0.5 First-Half Goals (edge +27.7pts at 3.10) the standout value bet.

The Draw/Lazio HT/FT at 4.00 also offers a solid edge, reflecting Lazio's pattern of second-half improvement against a Pisa side that collapses after the break.

Context

Pisa were mathematically relegated after losing 2-1 to Lecce on May 1.
- Manager Oscar Hiljemark said the focus is now on programming for next season.
- Pisa have lost 12 of their last 15 matches overall.
Football Italia reported a fan boycott of recent home games, with exceptions only for Milan and the Coppa Italia final.
- Lazio's home record this season is 7 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses, indicating no dominant home edge.
- The boycott stems from ongoing tension with president Claudio Lotito.
Lotito stated on May 18 that Sarri is not indispensable and summer decisions will follow.
- The comments came after a 2-0 derby loss to Roma, adding pressure.
- Lazio have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, suggesting possible distraction.
Pisa's away record: 0 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses.
- They have conceded 43 goals in 18 away games (2.4 per game).
- In their last 5 away matches, they scored 0 goals and conceded 13.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio's superior home form and Pisa's winless away record, combined with Pisa's relegation and poor recent results, give Lazio a clear edge despite motivational concerns.
- Lazio home record: 7W-6D-5L (18 matches, 25 goals for, 24 against) this season
- Pisa away record: 0W-8D-10L (18 matches, 16 goals for, 43 against) this season
- Pisa last 5 matches: 0W-0D-5L, 2 goals scored, 12 conceded
- Lazio last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, 5 goals scored, 8 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLazioEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pisa's inability to win away all season and their overall poor form make a Lazio win or draw highly likely, supported by Lazio's solid home record.
- Pisa away record: 0 wins in 18 away matches this season
- Lazio home record: only 5 losses in 18 home matches
- Pisa last 15 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 12 losses
- H2H: only recent meeting was 0-0 draw at Pisa
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLazio or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at half-time, with Lazio leading in just 13% and Pisa in 7% of recent matches, supporting a draw at the break.
- Lazio half-time results in last 15: led at HT in only 13% of matches
- Pisa half-time results in last 15: led at HT in only 7% of matches
- Lazio first-half goals: 0.2 per game; Pisa first-half goals: 0.1 per game
- H2H: 0-0 at half-time in only recent meeting
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time is likely given both teams' slow starts, and Lazio's superior quality and Pisa's second-half defensive issues could lead to a home win after the break.
- Lazio half-time leads: only 13% in last 15 matches
- Pisa half-time leads: only 7% in last 15 matches
- Lazio second-half performance: often improves, with 1.0 second-half goals vs 0.2 first-half
- Pisa second-half collapse: concedes 1.3 second-half goals per game
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/LazioEstimated chance30%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio's poor first-half record and Pisa's overall weakness make it very unlikely that Lazio will win both halves, as they rarely dominate from start to finish.
- Lazio first-half wins: only 2 in last 15 matches (13%)
- Pisa first-half losses: 7 in last 15 matches (47%)
- Lazio second-half wins: not explicitly tracked, but overall win rate is 35%
- Pisa overall form: 1 win in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lazio's tendency to trail or draw at half-time (87% of matches) and Pisa's high draw rate at the break make a Pisa lead or draw a likely first-half outcome.
- Lazio first-half leads: only 13% in last 15 matches
- Pisa first-half leads: 7% in last 15 matches
- Lazio first-half losses: 60% in last 15 matches
- Pisa first-half draws: 47% in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or PisaEstimated chance65%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Pisa's defensive frailties, Lazio's low-scoring home trend and the dead-rubber context suggest a subdued affair, with the lone H2H ending 0-0 reinforcing a low-scoring pattern.
- Lazio home matches: 25 goals for, 24 against in 18 games (avg 2.72 total goals)
- Pisa away matches: 16 goals for, 43 against in 18 games (avg 3.28 total goals)
- Lazio last 5 matches: 5 goals scored, 8 conceded (avg 2.6 total goals)
- Pisa last 5 matches: 2 goals scored, 12 conceded (avg 2.8 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pisa's scoring struggles away from home (only 16 goals in 18 away games) and Lazio's moderate clean sheet rate at home, combined with the low-event H2H, point to at least one team failing to score.
- Lazio home clean sheets: 5 in 18 home matches (28%)
- Pisa away failed to score: 8 times in 18 away matches (44%)
- Pisa last 5 matches: failed to score in 3 of 5
- H2H: 0-0 draw in only recent meeting
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lazio's clean sheet probability is modest but boosted by Pisa's poor away scoring record and the lack of motivation for the relegated visitors.
- Lazio home clean sheets: 5 in 18 matches (28%)
- Pisa away goals scored: 16 in 18 matches (0.89 per game)
- Pisa last 5 matches: failed to score in 3
- Lazio last 5 home matches: 1 clean sheet
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostPisa not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates, with Lazio averaging 0.2 and Pisa 0.1 first-half goals in recent form, making a goalless first half likely.
- Lazio first-half goals at home: 0.2 per game average in last 15
- Pisa first-half goals away: 0.1 per game average in last 15
- Lazio trailing at half-time in 60% of last 15 matches
- Pisa trailing at half-time in 47% of last 15 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams scoring more in second halves and Pisa's defense often crumbling late, the second half could see more goals, though the dead-rubber context tempers expectations.
- Lazio second-half goals at home: 0.8 per game (1.0 total - 0.2 first half)
- Pisa second-half goals away: 0.4 per game (0.5 total - 0.1 first half)
- Pisa concedes heavily in second halves: 1.3 goals per game overall (2.1 total - 0.8 first half)
- Lazio concedes 0.5 second-half goals at home (1.3 total - 0.8 first half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have extremely low first-half scoring output, making it highly unlikely that both will score before the break.
- Lazio first-half goals: 0.2 per game in last 15
- Pisa first-half goals: 0.1 per game in last 15
- Lazio first-half goals conceded: 0.8 per game
- Pisa first-half goals conceded: 0.8 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average low corner counts (Lazio 3.5, Pisa 3.1), and the lack of intensity in a dead rubber further supports a low total corner count.
- Lazio average corners per game: 3.5 in last 15 matches
- Pisa average corners per game: 3.1 in last 15 matches
- Lazio home corners: 3.5; Pisa away corners: 3.1
- Combined average corners in recent matches: 6.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined yellow card averages (4.0) suggest a moderate card count, but the lack of stakes should reduce aggression, making under 4.5 cards probable.
- Lazio average yellow cards: 1.9 per game in last 15
- Pisa average yellow cards: 2.1 per game in last 15
- Lazio average red cards: 0.7 per game (inflated by recent reds)
- Pisa average red cards: 1.0 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D0-0PisavLazioOct 30, 2025SA

0 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Lazio	37	13	12	12	39-39	51	LLWDW
20	Pisa Relegation - Serie B	37	2	12	23	25-69	18	LLLLL

33pt gap between teamsPisa in relegation zone

Recent Form

Lazio

L0-2AS RomaMay 17SA

L0-2InterMay 13CI

L0-3InterMay 9SA

W2-1CremoneseMay 4SA

D3-3UdineseApr 27SA

W2-0NapoliApr 18SA

L0-1FiorentinaApr 13SA

D1-1ParmaApr 4SA

W2-0BolognaMar 22SA

W1-0AC MilanMar 15SA

W2-1SassuoloMar 9SA

D2-2AtalantaMar 4CI

L0-2TorinoMar 1SA

D0-0CagliariFeb 21SA

L0-2AtalantaFeb 14SA

Pisa

L0-3NapoliMay 17SA

L0-3CremoneseMay 10SA

L1-2LecceMay 1SA

L0-1ParmaApr 25SA

L1-2GenoaApr 19SA

L0-3AS RomaApr 10SA

L0-1TorinoApr 5SA

L0-5ComoMar 22SA

W3-1CagliariMar 15SA

L0-4JuventusMar 7SA

L0-1BolognaMar 2SA

L0-1FiorentinaFeb 23SA

L1-2AC MilanFeb 13SA

D0-0Hellas VeronaFeb 6SA

L1-3SassuoloJan 31SA

Squad & Injuries

Lazio

33 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper5

Pisa

32 available

Attackers5

Midfielders15

Defenders7

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw or Pisa

Draw at half-time / Lazio at full-time

Under 0.5

Lazio or Draw

No

Under 9.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Lazio

Pisa

Squad & Injuries

Lazio

Pisa