Atalanta00 – 1Bologna1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have identical 27% first-half lead rates, and the H2H trend leans toward level scores at the break, making a draw the most likely first-half result.

• Atalanta home first-half record: led at HT in 27% of matches, trailed in 40%.
• Bologna away first-half record: led at HT in 27%, trailed in 27%.
• Last 5 H2H first halves: 3 draws, 1 Atalanta lead, 1 Bologna lead.
• Atalanta last 5 home first halves: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

If the first half is drawn as expected, Atalanta's superior home second-half performance and Bologna's tendency to fade on the road give a plausible, though low-probability, path to a home win after a level first half.

• Atalanta home: 6 draws at HT, of which they won 3 (50%).
• Bologna away: 4 draws at HT, of which they won 1 (25%).
• Last 5 H2H: 1 instance of Draw/Atalanta (1-1 at HT, Atalanta won 2-1 in 2024).
• Atalanta's second-half home goal difference is positive (+0.3 per game).

BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / AtalantaEstimated chance22%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The H2H pattern is overwhelmingly low-scoring, with five straight Unders and both teams failing to score in four of those; combined with Atalanta's solid home defense and Bologna's modest away output, another Under 2.5 is strongly indicated.

• Last 5 H2H: all finished Under 2.5 goals (0-2, 2-0, 0-1, 1-1, 1-2).
• Atalanta home record this season: 25 goals in 18 matches (1.39 per game), 14 conceded (0.78 per game).
• Bologna away record: 29 goals in 18 matches (1.61 per game), 23 conceded (1.28 per game).
• Atalanta last 5 Serie A matches: 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals; Bologna last 5 Serie A: 4 of 5 under 2.5 goals.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The H2H trend of at least one side blanking is strong, and Atalanta's home defensive record (0.78 GA/game) supports a clean sheet possibility, making BTTS No the lean despite Bologna's decent away scoring rate.

• Last 4 H2H: both teams did not score (0-2, 2-0, 0-1, 1-2).
• Atalanta home clean sheets: 7 in 18 league matches (39%).
• Bologna away failed to score: 5 in 18 league matches (28%).
• Atalanta last 5 home matches: kept 2 clean sheets; Bologna last 5 away: failed to score in 2.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams are slow starters, with low first-half scoring averages, and the H2H history shows a consistent pattern of cagey openings, making Under 1.5 first-half goals a high-probability outcome.

• Atalanta first-half goals at home: 0.6 per game average; conceded 0.7.
• Bologna first-half goals away: 0.4 per game average; conceded 0.5.
• Last 5 H2H first halves: 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 (all under 1.5).
• Atalanta last 5 matches: 4 of 5 first halves had 0 or 1 goal.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

While second halves tend to open up slightly, the overall low-scoring nature of this fixture and both teams' moderate attacking output suggest the second half is also likely to stay under 1.5 goals.

• Atalanta second-half goals at home: ~1.0 per game (derived from total 1.39 - 0.6 FH).
• Bologna second-half goals away: ~1.2 per game (derived from total 1.61 - 0.4 FH).
• Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had 1 or fewer second-half goals.
• Atalanta last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had under 1.5 second-half goals.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The first-half scoring profiles are extremely low, and the H2H history shows no instance of both teams scoring before the break in recent meetings, making BTTS No in the first half a near-certainty.

• Atalanta home first-half goals: 0.6 per game; conceded 0.7.
• Bologna away first-half goals: 0.4 per game; conceded 0.5.
• Last 5 H2H first halves: neither team scored in 3, only one team scored in 2.
• Combined first-half scoring rate: both teams scored in only ~15% of their respective matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combined corner averages sit around 9.0, and the H2H history consistently stays below 9.5, suggesting a moderate edge toward the under in what is likely a tight, low-event match.

• Atalanta average corners per home game: 5.5; Bologna average corners per away game: 4.9.
• Last 5 H2H corner totals: 4, 8, 5, 7, 9 (average 6.6, all under 9.5).
• Atalanta last 5 home matches: average total corners 8.2; Bologna last 5 away: 7.8.
• Both teams' recent matches show a trend toward lower corner counts (Atalanta 4 of last 5 under 9.5).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The disciplinary records are not extreme, and the H2H trend is consistently low-card, but without referee-specific data, confidence is limited; still, the numbers lean toward a clean game with under 4.5 cards.

• Atalanta average yellow cards per home game: 1.7; Bologna average away: 1.7.
• Last 5 H2H card counts: 3, 2, 4, 3, 2 (all under 4.5).
• Atalanta last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had under 4.5 cards; Bologna last 5 away: 4 of 5 under 4.5.
• Referee data unavailable, but both teams average moderate fouls (11.5 and 12.3 per game).