Bologna - Lecce
Finished Snapshot
Halftime
1-0
Predictions
7W · 3L · 0P
Edges
0W · 0L · 0P
Match Stats
Possession
Shots
Shots on Target
Corners
Quick Take
Back Bologna to win, but favour the drawn first half (2.10 at Betway) for a clearer edge: both teams score sparingly early, and H2H patterns show balanced half-time scores. Full match edges are modest given Bologna's two-front fatigue and Lecce's maximum survival motivation.
Context Signals
1st Half Result — Draw
HIGHBoth teams score sparingly in first halves (Bologna 0.4 avg, Lecce 0.5 avg) and 3 of last 5 H2H meetings were level at half-time, making a drawn first half the modal outcome.
matchWinner — Bologna Win
HIGHDespite Bologna's poor home record (5W-2D-8L), Lecce's catastrophic away form and large quality gap in shots (14.4 vs 10.6 avg) and possession (53.9% vs 40.1%) give Bologna the edge, supported by dominant H2H at home.
Betting Edges
Implied: 47.6% → Our estimate: 55% → Edge: +7.4pts
- •Bologna first-half goals: 0.4 avg, leading at HT in 30% of matches
- •Lecce first-half goals: 0.5 avg, H2H pattern shows 3 of 5 recent matches level at HT
- •Bologna first-half goals conceded: 0.1 avg — very low defensive vulnerability early
Predictions
Lecce's shots on target average of 2.3 is well below 6.5, and their low possession and shot volume away from home make exceeding this threshold extremely unlikely.
Lecce's terrible away record (3W in 15) and their winless H2H record against Bologna in the last 5 meetings make an away victory highly unlikely despite relegation motivation.
The combined corner average of 9.0 sits just below the 9.5 line, and Lecce's low possession away (40.1%) limits their corner generation while Bologna's 5.1 avg at home is moderate, making the under marginally more likely.
Both teams are low-scoring in recent form, Lecce average just 0.67 goals per away game (10 in 15), and the H2H pattern shows tight, low-scoring encounters especially when Bologna defend at home.
Both teams score sparingly in first halves (0.4 and 0.5 avg respectively), and the H2H pattern shows level half-time scores as the norm, making a drawn first half the most probable outcome.
The high combined foul count (25.8 per game) and Bologna's elevated yellow card rate (1.9 avg), amplified by Lecce's relegation desperation likely to produce physical, scrappy play, point toward 4+ total cards.
Lecce's extremely low shot output on target (2.3 avg) and their dismal away scoring record combined with Bologna's H2H clean sheet history at home make BTTS No the likelier outcome.
Despite Bologna's poor home record (5W-2D-8L), Lecce's catastrophic away form and large quality gap in shots (14.4 vs 10.6 avg) and possession (53.9% vs 40.1%) give Bologna the edge, supported by dominant H2H at home.
Lecce's chronic inability to score away from home (0.67 goals per game, 0 in 2 of last 3 away) and their historically poor finishing against Bologna at home support a shutout scenario.
Lecce's extremely low xG proxy (2.3 SOT avg) and failure to score in recent away trips, combined with Bologna's home H2H clean sheet record, give a reasonable chance, though Bologna's own home defensive record (18 conceded in 15) tempers confidence.
Recent Form
Bologna
Lecce
League Table
Serie A 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bologna | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 40-37 | 45 |
| 18 | Lecce Relegation - Serie B | 31 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 21-43 | 27 |