Bologna vs Lecce: result, stats and head-to-head

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Bologna's poor home record (5W-2D-8L), Lecce's catastrophic away form and large quality gap in shots (14.4 vs 10.6 avg) and possession (53.9% vs 40.1%) give Bologna the edge, supported by dominant H2H at home.
- Bologna rank 8th with 45 pts, Lecce 18th with 27 pts in Serie A 2025-26 (18-point gap)
- Lecce away record: 3W-2D-10L, scoring 10 goals in 15 away matches this season
- Bologna H2H at home: won 1-0 (Nov 2024) and 4-0 (Feb 2024) in last two home meetings
- Bologna missing Skorupski (GK), Dominguez (attacker), Ferguson (red card) — weakens squad but still superior overall quality
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBologna WinEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lecce's terrible away record (3W in 15) and their winless H2H record against Bologna in the last 5 meetings make an away victory highly unlikely despite relegation motivation.
- Lecce have won only 3 of 15 away matches this season in Serie A
- Lecce lost 4 of their last 5 matches across all competitions (form: LLLWL)
- Bologna unbeaten in all 5 last H2H meetings (2W-3D)
- Bologna home form alternating but still 5W-2D vs Lecce's 3W-2D away
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBologna or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score sparingly in first halves (0.4 and 0.5 avg respectively), and the H2H pattern shows level half-time scores as the norm, making a drawn first half the most probable outcome.
- Bologna avg first-half goals: 0.4, leading at HT in 30% of last 10 matches
- Lecce avg first-half goals: 0.5, but trailing at HT in 30% of last 10 matches
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings were level at half-time (0-0 in both Feb 2025 and Feb 2024 full matches)
- Bologna first-half goals conceded avg: just 0.1 over last 10 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are low-scoring in recent form, Lecce average just 0.67 goals per away game (10 in 15), and the H2H pattern shows tight, low-scoring encounters especially when Bologna defend at home.
- Bologna last 10 avg: 1.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match (1.9 total)
- Lecce last 10 avg: 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match (2.2 total)
- Bologna home: 14 scored and 18 conceded in 15 home games (2.13 per game avg)
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings finished with 2 or fewer goals (0-0, 1-0, 1-1)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lecce's extremely low shot output on target (2.3 avg) and their dismal away scoring record combined with Bologna's H2H clean sheet history at home make BTTS No the likelier outcome.
- Lecce scored 0 goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches (vs Roma 0-1, vs Como 1-3 but also vs Atalanta 0-3)
- Lecce shots on target avg: just 2.3 per match over last 10 games
- Bologna kept clean sheets in both home H2H meetings: 1-0 (Nov 2024) and 4-0 (Feb 2024)
- Lecce season away: only 10 goals in 15 away matches (0.67 per game)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lecce's extremely low xG proxy (2.3 SOT avg) and failure to score in recent away trips, combined with Bologna's home H2H clean sheet record, give a reasonable chance, though Bologna's own home defensive record (18 conceded in 15) tempers confidence.
- Lecce scored 0 goals in 2 of their last 5 away matches (0-1 vs Roma, 0-3 vs Atalanta)
- Lecce shots on target average: 2.3 per game over last 10 matches
- Bologna kept clean sheets in both recent home H2H meetings (1-0 Nov 2024, 4-0 Feb 2024)
- Lecce season: 21 goals scored in 31 matches (0.68 per game overall)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLecce not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lecce's chronic inability to score away from home (0.67 goals per game, 0 in 2 of last 3 away) and their historically poor finishing against Bologna at home support a shutout scenario.
- Lecce away goals: 10 in 15 games (0.67 avg), with 0 goals in multiple recent away matches
- Lecce shots on target avg: 2.3 across last 10 matches
- Bologna clean sheets in last 2 home H2H (1-0 Nov 2024, 4-0 Feb 2024)
- Lecce scored 0 in 2 of last 3 away matches (vs Roma, vs Atalanta)
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLecce Under 0.5Estimated chance47%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner average of 9.0 sits just below the 9.5 line, and Lecce's low possession away (40.1%) limits their corner generation while Bologna's 5.1 avg at home is moderate, making the under marginally more likely.
- Bologna avg 5.1 corners per match over last 10 games
- Lecce avg 3.9 corners per match over last 10 games (combined avg: 9.0)
- Lecce away matches show low attacking volume (10.6 shots avg, 40.1% possession) limiting corner opportunities
- In recent Lecce matches: 2 corners vs Atalanta, 2 vs Roma, 7 vs Napoli, 4 vs Cremonese, 1 vs Como
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high combined foul count (25.8 per game) and Bologna's elevated yellow card rate (1.9 avg), amplified by Lecce's relegation desperation likely to produce physical, scrappy play, point toward 4+ total cards.
- Bologna avg 1.9 yellow cards and opponents avg ~1.4 yellows per match (combined ~3.3 yellows for Bologna games)
- Lecce avg 1.2 yellow cards per match; combined with opponent cards suggests ~3.0+ total per Lecce game
- Bologna avg 13.2 fouls per game, Lecce avg 12.6 fouls (combined 25.8 fouls per game)
- Relegation-pressure matches typically feature more tactical fouling and intensity
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lecce's shots on target average of 2.3 is well below 6.5, and their low possession and shot volume away from home make exceeding this threshold extremely unlikely.
- Lecce avg shots on target: 2.3 per match over last 10 games
- Lecce managed 0 shots on target vs Atalanta, 3 vs Roma, 2 vs Napoli in recent away matches
- Lecce avg total shots: 10.6 per match, conversion to on-target is very low
- Lecce possession avg 40.1% limits shooting opportunities, especially away
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 6.5Estimated chance85%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Bologna2Lecce0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bologna

Lecce

Squad & Injuries

Bologna

Lecce

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Bologna	31	13	6	12	40-37	45	WLWLW
18	Lecce Relegation - Serie B	31	7	6	18	21-43	27	LLLWL