Primera NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

CA Nueva Chicago2Chacarita Juniors0

HT 0–0Sat 13 Jun 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jun 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest

A high-stakes derby with both teams desperate for points, but low-scoring trends dominate.

The best value is Under 0.5 First-Half Goals at 2.05 (65% estimated probability vs. 48.8% implied), while the draw at 2.70 offers a small edge. Avoid heavily juiced markets like Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals.

Context

Chicago have 18 points from 14 games, while 8th-placed Deportivo Maipu have 21 from 16.
- Two games in hand give Chicago direct control over their playoff push.
- A win could move them level on points with the Reducido spots.
Chacarita have 18 points from 16 matches, only one more than 17th-placed Colegiales.
- The bottom two teams in each zone are relegated directly.
- A loss could drop Chacarita into the relegation places.
Home record: 1 win, 5 draws, 1 loss in 7 matches.
- They have scored only 7 goals and conceded 6 at home.
- Four of the last five home games ended with under 2.5 goals.
Away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses.
- They have scored only 4 goals in 7 away games.
- Chacarita failed to score in three of those seven away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CA Nueva Chicago or Draw

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 77%

0.0ppshort

Chicago are hard to beat at home (1 loss in 7) and Chacarita are poor travelers (0 away wins), but the odds already reflect this, offering no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average under 1.0 goals per game and recent H2H meetings have been tight, with 3 of last 5 finishing under 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have failed to score in roughly a third of their matches, and Chacarita's away attack is particularly blunt.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to win (Chicago's many home draws, Chacarita's poor away form) and recent H2H is dominated by draws, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.
- CA Nueva Chicago home record: 1 win, 5 draws, 1 loss in 7 home matches this season
- Chacarita Juniors away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 7 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 Chacarita win, 1 Nueva Chicago win
- Both teams average 0.9 goals scored per game over last 15 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago are very hard to beat at home (only 1 loss) while Chacarita have been poor travelers with zero away wins, so the home side avoiding defeat is highly probable.
- CA Nueva Chicago home record: 1 win, 5 draws, 1 loss in 7 home matches
- Chacarita Juniors away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses in 7 away matches
- CA Nueva Chicago have lost only 1 of 7 home games this season
- Chacarita have not won away all season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Nueva Chicago or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams showing a strong tendency for first-half draws and low first-half scoring, the half-time result is most likely to be level.
- CA Nueva Chicago half-time results: 2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses in last 15
- Chacarita Juniors half-time results: 2 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses in last 15
- Both teams average only 0.3 first-half goals scored
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given Chicago's high home draw rate and the low-scoring nature of both teams, a draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible but not high-probability outcome.
- CA Nueva Chicago home record: 5 draws in 7 home matches
- Chacarita Juniors away record: 2 draws in 7 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, with 2 being 0-0 and 1-1
- Both teams average under 1 goal per game
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams evenly matched in second-half performance and a tendency for tight contests, a drawn second half is a reasonable expectation.
- CA Nueva Chicago second-half record: 4 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses in last 15 (estimated)
- Chacarita Juniors second-half record: 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses in last 15 (estimated)
- Both teams have similar second-half goal differences
- H2H last 5: second-half results were 2 draws, 2 Chacarita wins, 1 Chicago win
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%

Goals5 of 8 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles and recent H2H meetings have been tight, with 3 of the last 5 finishing under 2.5 goals, supporting a low total.
- CA Nueva Chicago average 0.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over last 15
- Chacarita Juniors average 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game over last 15
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches had under 2.5 goals (0-0, 1-1, 1-1)
- CA Nueva Chicago home matches: 7 goals for, 6 against in 7 games (avg 1.86 total)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have inconsistent scoring records and Chacarita's away attack is particularly blunt, making it likely at least one team fails to find the net.
- CA Nueva Chicago have failed to score in 5 of last 15 matches
- Chacarita Juniors have failed to score in 6 of last 15 matches
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 matches
- Chacarita away: scored only 4 goals in 7 away games this season
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely score in the first half and often go into the break level, suggesting a goalless first half is the most probable scenario.
- CA Nueva Chicago average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded over last 15
- Chacarita Juniors average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded over last 15
- CA Nueva Chicago were leading at half-time in only 13% of recent matches
- Chacarita Juniors were leading at half-time in only 13% of recent matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score the majority of their goals after the break, and with second-half goals conceded also higher, at least one goal in the second half is very likely.
- CA Nueva Chicago average 0.6 second-half goals scored (0.9 total - 0.3 first half)
- Chacarita Juniors average 0.6 second-half goals scored (0.9 total - 0.3 first half)
- CA Nueva Chicago concede 0.3 second-half goals on average (1.0 total - 0.7 first half)
- Chacarita Juniors concede 0.6 second-half goals on average (1.1 total - 0.5 first half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's defense is not watertight at home, and Chacarita have managed to score in over half their away games, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- CA Nueva Chicago have kept only 5 clean sheets in last 15 matches
- CA Nueva Chicago have conceded in 5 of 7 home matches this season
- Chacarita Juniors have scored in 9 of last 15 matches
- Chacarita have scored in 4 of 7 away matches this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostChacarita Juniors to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chacarita's away defense is leaky, and Chicago consistently find the net at home, so an away clean sheet is improbable.
- Chacarita Juniors have kept only 4 clean sheets in last 15 matches
- Chacarita have conceded in 6 of 7 away matches this season
- CA Nueva Chicago have scored in 10 of last 15 matches
- CA Nueva Chicago have scored in 6 of 7 home matches this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Nueva Chicago to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chicago's home attack is modest, rarely exceeding one goal, and Chacarita's away defense, while poor, may still limit the hosts to a low total.
- CA Nueva Chicago average 1.0 goals per home game this season (7 in 7)
- CA Nueva Chicago have scored more than 1 goal in only 2 of 7 home matches
- Chacarita concede 1.57 goals per away game on average (11 in 7)
- Last 5 H2H: Chicago scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCA Nueva Chicago under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chacarita's away scoring record is extremely poor, and Chicago's home defense is solid, making it highly likely the visitors score at most one goal.
- Chacarita Juniors average 0.57 goals per away game this season (4 in 7)
- Chacarita have scored more than 1 goal in only 1 of 7 away matches
- CA Nueva Chicago concede 0.86 goals per home game (6 in 7)
- Last 5 H2H: Chacarita scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonChacarita Juniors under 1.5Estimated chance80%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While specific card stats are missing, the intense rivalry context and emotional stakes suggest a higher likelihood of cards, though confidence is low due to lack of data.
- Card data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- This is a high-friction clasico with historical security sensitivity
- Referee Juan Cruz Robledo's card averages are unknown
- Derby matches in Primera Nacional often see elevated card counts
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D0-0Chacarita JuniorsvNueva ChicagoJun 28, 2025PRI

D1-1Nueva ChicagovChacarita JuniorsFeb 24, 2025PRI

L3-1Chacarita JuniorsvNueva ChicagoApr 10, 2022PRI

W2-3Chacarita JuniorsvNueva ChicagoAug 8, 2021PRI

D1-1Nueva ChicagovChacarita JuniorsMar 31, 2021PRI

2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	CA Nueva Chicago	14	4	6	4	13-12	18
15	Chacarita Juniors	16	5	3	8	14-18	18

Recent Form

CA Nueva Chicago

D1-1TemperleyMay 23PRI

L0-1Deportivo MaipuMay 17PRI

L1-2AlmagroMay 11PRI

L1-2PatronatoMay 3PRI

D0-0ColegialesApr 26PRI

D0-0QuilmesApr 18PRI

D2-2MidlandApr 13PRI

W2-1AtlantaApr 8PRI

D0-0All BoysMar 29PRI

W3-1Gimnasia Y TiroMar 23PRI

L0-2San Martin TucumanMar 15PRI

W2-0AgropecuarioFeb 28PRI

D0-0Tristan SuarezFeb 21PRI

W1-0Club Atlético GüemesFeb 15PRI

L0-3TemperleyOct 5PRI

Chacarita Juniors

L0-1TemperleyJun 7PRI

L2-3Deportivo MaipuMay 31PRI

W1-0AlmagroMay 24PRI

L0-2PatronatoMay 17PRI

W2-0ColegialesMay 10PRI

D0-0QuilmesMay 4PRI

W1-0MidlandApr 26PRI

L0-1AtlantaApr 21PRI

W2-0Gimnasia Y TiroApr 12PRI

D1-1San Martin TucumanApr 4PRI

L0-3CA EstudiantesMar 29PRI

L0-1Atletico DE RafaelaMar 22PRI

L0-2AgropecuarioMar 15PRI

L1-2Club Atlético GüemesMar 1PRI

W3-1Gimnasia JujuyFeb 22PRI

Squad & Injuries

CA Nueva Chicago

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Chacarita Juniors

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 0.5

CA Nueva Chicago or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

No

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 8 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

CA Nueva Chicago

Chacarita Juniors

Squad & Injuries

CA Nueva Chicago

Chacarita Juniors