CA Nueva Chicago2San Martin de Tucuman1

HT 1–1Sat 1 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a tight, low-scoring match at Nueva Chicago, where history and current form point to Under 2.5 goals and a strong chance of a first-half stalemate.

The best value lies in backing Under 0.5 First-Half Goals at odds around 1.95, given both teams' slow starts and a 65% estimated probability. For a safer play, the home-or-draw double chance is a high-probability option, but the short odds limit appeal.

Context

7 clean sheets in 11 home matches (64%).
- Only 7 goals conceded at home all season.
- Last 5 home matches: 3 clean sheets, never conceded more than 1 goal.
7 goals in 11 away matches (0.64 per game).
- Failed to score in 5 of 11 away matches (45%).
- Only 1 away match this season with more than 1 goal scored.
Last 5 H2H at Nueva Chicago: three 1-0, two 0-0.
- 4 of those 5 were 0-0 at half-time.
- San Martín failed to score in 3 of those 5 visits.
0 first-half goals in last 5 home matches.
- Only 2 first-half goals in 11 home matches this season.
- 7 of 11 home matches were level at half-time.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nueva Chicago's home form is draw-heavy, and San Martin's away record includes many stalemates; combined with low-scoring H2H trends, a draw is the most probable single outcome.
- Nueva Chicago home: 7 draws in 11 matches (64%).
- San Martin away: 4 draws in 11 matches (36%).
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: 2 draws in last 5 meetings.
- Nueva Chicago last 5 form: 1W, 2D, 2L; San Martin last 5: 2W, 2D, 1L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nueva Chicago is very hard to beat at home, and San Martin's away form is mediocre, making a home win or draw highly probable.
- Nueva Chicago home: only 1 loss in 11 matches (3W, 7D).
- San Martin away: 3 wins in 11 matches, 7 losses/draws.
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: Nueva Chicago unbeaten in 4 of last 5 (3W, 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Nueva Chicago or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight and low-scoring, with both teams often level at the break in their respective home/away matches.
- Nueva Chicago home half-time results: 7 draws in 11 matches.
- San Martin away half-time results: 6 draws in 11 matches.
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: 4 draws at half-time in last 5 meetings.
- Nueva Chicago first half goals for/against: 0.2/0.5; San Martin: 0.4/0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While not the most likely specific double result, the combination of frequent first-half draws and full-time draws in this fixture makes Draw/Draw a plausible outcome.
- Nueva Chicago home: 4 of 11 matches were draw at HT and FT.
- San Martin away: 3 of 11 matches were draw at HT and FT.
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: 2 of last 5 were 0-0 draws (Draw/Draw).
- Overall draw probability is elevated due to low-scoring patterns.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 8 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H at this venue consistently produces low-scoring matches, and both teams have strong defensive records at home/away respectively, making Under 2.5 highly likely.
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: last 5 meetings all had ≤1 goal (three 1-0, two 0-0).
- Nueva Chicago home record: 12 goals for, 7 against in 11 matches (avg 1.73 total goals).
- San Martin away record: 7 goals for, 10 against in 11 matches (avg 1.55 total goals).
- Both teams average <1 goal scored per match overall this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score consistently, especially in this fixture historically, and Nueva Chicago's home defensive solidity suggests at least one side will be shut out.
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: in 4 of last 5 meetings, at least one team failed to score.
- Nueva Chicago home: 7 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- San Martin away: failed to score in 5 of 11 away matches.
- San Martin overall: 20 goals in 22 matches (0.91 per game).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, especially Nueva Chicago at home, and historical H2H first halves at this venue are almost always goalless.
- Nueva Chicago first half goals: 0.2 per game overall; 0.0 in last 5 home matches.
- San Martin first half goals: 0.4 per game overall; 0.2 in last 5 away matches.
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: 4 of last 5 meetings were 0-0 at halftime.
- Nueva Chicago home first half goals conceded: 0.5 per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even after halftime, scoring is limited; historical data and season averages suggest the second half will rarely see more than one goal.
- Nueva Chicago home second half goals: 1.09 total on average (12 goals in 11 matches).
- San Martin away second half goals: 0.91 total on average (10 goals in 11 matches).
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: 4 of last 5 meetings had 0 or 1 second-half goal.
- Both teams average <1 goal per game overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nueva Chicago's strong home defensive record and San Martin's away scoring struggles make a home clean sheet more likely than not.
- Nueva Chicago home: 7 clean sheets in 11 matches (64%).
- San Martin away: failed to score in 5 of 11 matches (45%).
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: San Martin failed to score in 3 of last 5 meetings.
- San Martin overall goals scored: 0.91 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSan Martin de Tucuman not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Martin's away defense is not particularly solid, and Nueva Chicago tends to find the net at home, so an away clean sheet is unlikely.
- San Martin away: only 3 clean sheets in 11 matches (27%).
- Nueva Chicago home: scored in 8 of 11 matches (73%).
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: Nueva Chicago scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
- Nueva Chicago home goals: 1.09 per game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCA Nueva Chicago to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nueva Chicago's scoring output is modest, especially against organized defenses like San Martin, and historical H2H supports a low home goal tally.
- Nueva Chicago home goals: 12 in 11 matches (1.09 per game).
- San Martin away goals conceded: 10 in 11 matches (0.91 per game).
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: Nueva Chicago scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of last 5 meetings.
- Nueva Chicago overall goals: 0.86 per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCA Nueva Chicago under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
San Martin's away attack is weak, and Nueva Chicago's home defense is strong, making it probable that the visitors fail to score.
- San Martin away goals: 7 in 11 matches (0.64 per game).
- Nueva Chicago home goals conceded: 7 in 11 matches (0.64 per game).
- H2H at Nueva Chicago: San Martin failed to score in 3 of last 5 meetings.
- San Martin overall goals: 0.91 per game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSan Martin de Tucuman under 0.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Prediction history

CA Nueva Chicago: Under 2.5 goals has been highly reliable

In 7 recent matches, CA Nueva Chicago's Under 2.5 goals projection was fulfilled 6 times. The average estimated probability was 71%, with 5 expected fulfilments, so the outcome slightly exceeded expectations. At home, all 4 projections were correct, while the only miss occurred away.

Recent evidence for CA Nueva Chicago7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Primera Nacional