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Predictions graded

Clement Chidekh #152France2Jacob Fearnley #87United Kingdom0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Wed 21 Oct 2026, 13:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions8–280%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJacob Fearnley · 65 places

Clement Chidekh

France

Career-best singles ranking listed as No. 176. His recorded career results are concentrated on hard and indoor hard courts; no current injury or withdrawal signal was returned by the targeted search.

Current ranking: #152
Peak ranking: #176
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Jacob Fearnley

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 49 on June 9, 2025. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; historical college injuries are not treated as a current availability issue.

Current ranking: #87
Peak ranking: #49 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 06:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Chidekh, a qualifier ranked No. 152, has just beaten the seventh seed and won an indoor title three weeks ago; Fearnley, No. 87, opened with a 6-3 6-0 win and took a set off him in their only meeting.

Chidekh looks the slightly better bet to reach the next round. Even money on him to win, 3 on a 2-0 win and 1.9 on the first set each offer a small edge; Under 2.5 sets at 1.5 offers none.

Context

Beating a top-40 seed 6-1 6-4 answers the question of whether a Challenger-level player can hold a tour-level baseline on this court, and it followed qualifying wins over Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Gauthier Onclin without dropping a set. Three wins in four days at the same venue also mean Chidekh is already settled on the Centre Court surface and has banked indoor match rhythm. The limitation is the level of evidence rather than the form: this was his first main-draw tour win, so there is no tour-level sample showing whether that standard holds against a second, differently built opponent.
- Van de Zandschulp was the seventh seed and ranked No. 38.
- Chidekh entered the main draw as a qualifier, ranked No. 152.
- The win came in straight sets, 6-1 6-4, .
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:20 · Europe/BucharestTennisTempleen.tennistemple.com · 20 Oct 2026
Fearnley took the second set 6-2 and Chidekh closed the third 6-2, so the match was decided late rather than by an early break. The direct precedent is limited: it was played at Challenger level seven months ago, when both players were ranked lower and the court was slower than an indoor hard court in Brussels. It is still the only evidence of how the two match up, and it points to a long match in which the final set, not the first, separated them.
- The match was played on 17 February 2026 on a hard court in Lille.
- Chidekh won 6-3 2-6 6-2 after 118 minutes.
- It is the only recorded meeting between the two.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:20 · Europe/BucharestTennisTempleen.tennistemple.com · 20 Oct 2026
Five wins in six days on indoor hard, four of them in straight sets, is the block of form behind his Brussels run and the reason a qualifier arrived with more recent wins than most of the main draw. The final cost him little: 6-2 6-0, with the semi-final also settled in straight sets. The counterweight is the standard of opposition, no higher than No. 181 in the last three rounds, and his next completed match was a two-tie-break loss to Jerome Kym in Roanne on 14 October.
- The final was won 6-2 6-0 against Gueymard Wayenburg on 4 October 2026.
- Chidekh beat David Goffin 6-1 6-0 in the round of 32.
- All five wins in the run came on indoor hard courts.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:20 · Europe/Bucharest
A 6-0 second set against an opponent ranked six places below him kept his court time to the minimum the day before this match and shows no adjustment problem on his first appearance at this venue. The scoreline also means the match was won on his own service games and return position rather than through a long grind, which is the part of his game this court rewards least. One match against a lower-ranked opponent is a narrow base, so it establishes that he has settled here rather than how he handles a serve-first opponent of Chidekh's type.
- Fearnley beat Hugo Gaston 6-3 6-0 .
- Gaston was ranked No. 93, six places below Fearnley.
- The second set was won 6-0.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 06:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Chidekh is in stronger recent form and has already beaten the higher-ranked opponent in their only meeting.
- Chidekh 12-2 in 14 tracked matches on hard, including wins over No. 38 van de Zandschulp and Goffin.
- Fearnley 10-4 on hard, but lost his most recent completed match to No. 83 Dzumhur 6-7 3-6.
- Only head-to-head: Chidekh won 6-3 2-6 6-2 on hard in Lille in February 2026.
- Chidekh won the Mouilleron-le-Captif Challenger on indoor hard on 4 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even in defeat Chidekh has been competitive on the scoreboard, so a narrow margin is likely.
- Chidekh's recent wins include 6-1 6-4, 6-2 7-6 and 6-2 6-0 scorelines.
- Chidekh has lost only 2 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Chidekh's only recent defeat was a 6-7 6-7 loss to Kym.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonClement Chidekh +1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A competitive match that goes the distance would comfortably clear this total.
- Chidekh total games average 18.8; Fearnley 20.25.
- Average sets played: Chidekh 2.07, Fearnley 2.17.
- Three-set matches in their samples average about 28 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually break early enough for the opening set to finish near nine games.
- Chidekh set1 total games average 9.0 across 14 matches.
- Fearnley set1 total games average 9.25 across 12 matches.
- Only 2 first-set tiebreaks each in their samples.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals have also clustered near nine games for both players.
- Chidekh set2 total games average 9.21.
- Fearnley set2 total games average 9.33.
- Chidekh has 2 second-set tiebreaks in 14 matches; Fearnley 2 in 12.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent records.
- Chidekh has 13 of 14 matches finished in straight sets.
- Fearnley has 10 of 12 matches finished in straight sets.
- Chidekh total sets average 2.07; Fearnley 2.17.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Chidekh has started almost every recent match strongly and often takes the opener.
- Chidekh set1 on hard: 12 wins, 2 losses from 14 matches.
- Chidekh averages 6 games won and 3 lost in set1.
- Fearnley set1 on hard: 10 wins, 2 losses from 12 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's second-set record is slightly stronger than Fearnley's across comparable samples.
- Chidekh set2 on hard: 11 wins, 3 losses from 14 matches.
- Chidekh averages 5.7 games won and 3.5 lost in set2.
- Fearnley set2 on hard: 8 wins, 4 losses from 12 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually break serve often enough to avoid tiebreaks.
- Chidekh has 11 of 14 matches without a tiebreak.
- Fearnley has 8 of 12 matches without a tiebreak.
- Both players' set totals average close to nine games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance67%

Prediction history

Clement Chidekh: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Clement Chidekh matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Clement Chidekh7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh to win

58%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

10 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

8 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·65%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

Clement Chidekh to win

65%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

6 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

Clement Chidekh to win

62%probability

Aziz Dougaz won

Missed

Previous match context available

Clement Chidekh

13W 2L

6-1 6-4#38Botic Van De Zandschulp 6-2 7-6(3)#178Gauthier Onclin 6-1 6-3#408Gilles Arnaud Bailly

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#223Jerome Kym

6-2 6-0#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-2 6-4#364Henry Bernet

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#202Harold Mayot

6-4 3-6 6-2#344Ugo Blanchet

6-1 6-0#657David Goffin

6-4 6-4#202Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#318Lucas Poullain

7-5 6-4#1532Finn Bass

7-6(5) 6-1#650Samir Banerjee

6-1 6-1#556Sebastian Dominko

6-1 6-3#602Alexander Vasilev

Jacob Fearnley

10W 5L

6-3 6-0#93Hugo Gaston 7-6(4) 6-3#83Damir Dzumhur 6-2 6-4#241Luca Nardi 6-0 7-6(4)#234Maxim Mrva

6-4 6-3#192Jan Kumstat

6-1 6-3#450George Loffhagen

7-6(4) 3-0 ret.#185Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-1 6-2#323Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3#67Martin Landaluce

4-6 6-4 6-4#137Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

7-6(3) 6-3#259Roberto Carballes Baena

6-4 6-1#179Taro Daniel

6-2 6-3#182Alexis Galarneau

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCClement ChidekhChidekh

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Jacob FearnleyFearnleyJF

Clement Chidekh carries the stronger recent form — Jacob Fearnley's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1565.4%+3.7pp61.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1575.8%+3.6pp72.2%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1557.7%+6.9pp50.8%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.6+0.44.0

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.14.2 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1546.1%+3.1pp43.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1545.4%+1.4pp44.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1555.6%+9.8pp65.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1556.9%+3.6pp53.3%

Serve · 4–1

65.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.7pp61.7%

75.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp72.2%

57.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.9pp50.8%

3.6Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.44.0

1.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.2 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

46.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.1pp43.0%

Pressure · 1–1

45.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+1.4pp44.0%

55.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+9.8pp65.4%

Points · 1–0

56.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp53.3%

Clement Chidekh

Jacob Fearnley

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Clement Chidekh

Jacob Fearnley

Stat Battle