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Predictions graded

Clement Chidekh #146France2Gauthier Onclin #168Belgium0

Sets 6-2 · 7-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 13:15 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions6–186%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClement Chidekh · 22 places

Clement Chidekh

France

Career-best singles ranking listed as No. 176. His recorded career results are concentrated on hard and indoor hard courts; no current injury or withdrawal signal was returned by the targeted search.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: #176
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Gauthier Onclin

Belgium

At 25, he reached a career-high No. 167 on 3 August 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #168
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Chidekh brings a 12-2 indoor-hard record since 9 September against a home qualifier who has lost 7 of 13 hard matches and needed a deciding set in six of them.

The likely outcome is a Chidekh win, probably in two sets. Only the 1.8 for a 2-0 Chidekh win stands up; 1.3 for the match, 1.36 for the first set and 1.4 for a two-set finish all ask more than the record justifies.

Context

Chidekh is the higher-ranked player here largely because of that fortnight: the title took him to No. 146 and made him the fourth seed in Brussels qualifying. His only match since, a 7-6(6) 7-6(3) loss to Jerome Kym in Roanne on 14 October, is a caution against treating the 22-place ranking gap as current separation, because he has not won a Challenger match since lifting the trophy. That defeat was settled by two tie-breaks rather than any physical collapse, so it narrows the form case without pointing to a fitness problem.
- Beat Gueymard Wayenburg 6-2 6-0 in the Open de Vendée final
- Fifth Challenger title and third of the 2026 season
- Entered the top 150 for the first time at No. 146 on 5 October 2026
- Seeded fourth in the Brussels qualifying draw at No. 146
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Chidekh is the higher-ranked player at No. 146 and had the heavier recent workload of wins coming into Brussels.
Chidekh's scorelines read eleven 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win and two 0-2 defeats, so his matches rarely run long. He also took 12 of 14 opening sets and 11 of 14 second sets in that window. Fourteen matches over five weeks is a short sample, but the shape of his results points clearly toward a two-set finish.
- 14 hard-court matches, 9 September to 17 October 2026
- Scorelines: eleven 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, two 0-2 defeats
- Set 1 record: 12 wins, 2 losses; set 2 record: 11 wins, 3 losses
- Average 2.07 sets and 18.5 games per match
Onclin is the home qualifier and the lower-ranked of the two at No. 168.
Six of Onclin's 13 hard matches went the distance, and he lost the second set in 9 of those 13, so his matches tend to stretch even when the first set goes well. That is the main argument against a smooth two-set Chidekh win. His 2.46 sets and 23.6 games per match against Chidekh's 2.07 and 18.5 is the sharpest split between the two records.
- 13 hard-court matches, 12 August to 17 October 2026
- Scorelines: four 2-1 wins, two 1-2 defeats, five 0-2 defeats, two 2-0 wins
- Set 2 record: 4 wins, 9 losses
- Average 2.46 sets and 23.6 games per match
Brussels is Onclin's home ATP 250, and the three Belgians listed in the main draw — Zizou Bergs, Alexander Blockx and Raphael Collignon — are all ranked well above him, so qualifying is his route into the event. The 6-0 third set against Wendelken limits how much that extra set should count against him physically. Crowd support is the visible edge the setting provides; his own record is the counterweight, with five defeats in his previous seven matches, including three-set losses to Felix Balshaw in Roanne and Daniil Glinka in Villena.
- Beat Harry Wendelken 6-3 4-6 6-0 in the opening qualifying round
- First Belgian match win of the tournament
- Main draw begins 19 October 2026
- Eighth seed in the qualifying draw
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 22:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Clement Chidekh

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Chidekh has been much the stronger player on hard courts and wins most of his matches in straight sets.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Clement Chidekh

1.36fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 73.5%

−3.5ppshort

Chidekh has started strongly and Onclin has lost more first sets than he has won.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.40fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 71.4%

−4.4ppshort

Chidekh's straight-set wins make a two-set finish more likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Chidekh has been much the stronger player on hard courts and wins most of his matches in straight sets.
- Chidekh is 12-2 on hard in this window
- Onclin is 6-7 on hard
- Chidekh won 11 of 14 hard matches 2-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh has been winning by wider game margins, while Onclin has been narrowly negative on hard.
- Chidekh's six recent hard matches averaged +6.0 games
- Onclin's five recent hard matches averaged -0.6 games
- Chidekh won 12 of 14 hard matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonClement Chidekh -3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's quick wins and 2-0 record make a shorter match more likely.
- Chidekh's hard matches averaged 18.5 total games
- Onclin's hard matches averaged 23.6 total games
- Chidekh won 11 of 14 hard matches 2-0
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Chidekh has started strongly and Onclin has lost more first sets than he has won.
- Chidekh won 12 of 14 first sets on hard
- Onclin lost 7 of 13 first sets
- Chidekh averaged 6.0 games won to 3.1 lost in first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Chidekh's straight-set wins make a two-set finish more likely.
- Chidekh won 11 of 14 hard matches 2-0
- Chidekh's hard matches averaged 2.07 sets
- Onclin lost 5 of 13 hard matches 0-2
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Chidekh's recent hard-court wins have mostly been completed in two sets.
- Chidekh won 11 of 14 hard matches 2-0
- Chidekh won 12 of 14 first sets and 11 of 14 second sets
- Onclin lost 5 of 13 hard matches 0-2
BetBugs · Set BettingwonClement Chidekh 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have had few tiebreaks in recent hard matches.
- Chidekh had a tiebreak in 2 of 14 hard matches
- Onclin had a tiebreak in 2 of 13 hard matches
- Chidekh's first sets averaged 9.1 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance79%

Prediction history

Clement Chidekh: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Clement Chidekh matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Clement Chidekh7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh to win

58%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

10 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

8 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·65%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

Clement Chidekh to win

65%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

6 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

Clement Chidekh to win

62%probability

Aziz Dougaz won

Missed

Previous match context available

Clement Chidekh

13W 2L

6-1 6-3#337Gilles Arnaud Bailly

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#249Jerome Kym

6-2 6-0#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-2 6-4#371Henry Bernet

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#186Harold Mayot

6-4 3-6 6-2#305Ugo Blanchet

6-1 6-0#467David Goffin

6-4 6-4#186Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#322Lucas Poullain

7-5 6-4#1532Finn Bass

7-6(5) 6-1#564Samir Banerjee

6-1 6-1#560Sebastian Dominko

6-1 6-3#611Alexander Vasilev

6-1 6-4#891Axel Garcian

6-3 6-2#850Kenny de Schepper

Gauthier Onclin

6W 9L

6-3 4-6 6-0#182Harry Wendelken

6-4 6-7(3) 6-4#198Felix Balshaw

4-6 6-2 6-3#178Daniil Glinka

6-1 6-4#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(4) 6-2#391Dan Added

6-4 6-1#140Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-2#301Raphael Perot

7-5 7-5#172Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-4#68Vit Kopriva

2-6 6-2 6-3#210Timofey Skatov

6-4 5-7 6-4#233Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 6-4#620Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-3#203Andres Andrade

6-4 3-6 6-3#344Tyler Zink

6-2 2-6 7-6(2)#190Diego Dedura

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCClement ChidekhChidekh

Last 15

9–0

9 core stats · 0 even

Gauthier OnclinOnclinGO

Clement Chidekh carries the stronger recent form — Gauthier Onclin's route runs through break pts converted.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In14/15 · 13/1563.1%+5.6pp57.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/1576.4%+9.7pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/1558.2%+7.9pp50.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 13/153.2+0.62.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/151.41.0 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/1545.9%+8.1pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/1546.4%+1.3pp45.1%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/1557.6%+4.0pp53.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/1557.0%+8.2pp48.8%

Serve · 5–0

63.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 13/15+5.6pp57.5%

76.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+9.7pp66.7%

58.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+7.9pp50.3%

3.2Aces / Match14/15 · 13/15+0.62.6

1.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/151.0 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

45.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/15+8.1pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

46.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/15+1.3pp45.1%

57.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/15+4.0pp53.6%

Points · 1–0

57.0%Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/15+8.2pp48.8%

Clement Chidekh

Gauthier Onclin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Clement Chidekh 2-0

Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Clement Chidekh

Gauthier Onclin

Stat Battle