BelgiumATP BrusselsFinished

Predictions graded

Clement Chidekh #146France2Gilles Arnaud Bailly #337Belgium0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Sat 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions10–191%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClement Chidekh · 191 places

Clement Chidekh

France

Career-best singles ranking listed as No. 176. His recorded career results are concentrated on hard and indoor hard courts; no current injury or withdrawal signal was returned by the targeted search.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: #176
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Belgium

Belgian right-hander, age 20, with an ATP career-high ranking of No. 201 achieved in November 2025. His supplied current ranking is No. 230; no reliably sourced preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #337
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 03:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Chidekh, the world No. 146, has won 11 of his last 14 hard-court matches and faces Bailly, a 20-year-old Belgian wildcard ranked 337 whose recent form is clay-heavy and whose only hard-court match in the sample was a straight-sets loss.

Chidekh is the clear sporting pick, with straight sets a low-confidence lean. At 1.15 for the match and 1.22 per set, his prices give nothing back, and Bailly's 5.5 and 3.8 quotes are no better; no reviewed price is worthwhile.

Context

Chidekh won the Open de Vendée at Mouilleron-le-Captif, beating Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 6-2 6-0 for his fifth Challenger title and a move to No. 146. It is the clearest recent evidence of his level on indoor hard, the surface for this Brussels qualifying match, and it lifts him above his previous career best. The title came at Challenger 75 level, so it establishes form rather than direct proof against a home wildcard at ATP 250 qualifying standard.
- Chidekh beat Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 6-2 6-0 in the Open de Vendée final
- It was his fifth ATP Challenger singles title and his third of 2026
- He rose to a career-best No. 146, entering the top 150
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Straight-set wins dominate Chidekh's recent hard-court record: ten of fourteen matches finished 2-0, with one three-set win and one three-set defeat alongside two 0-2 losses. That pattern shows how few of his sets reach a deciding margin, though the sample comes from Challenger-level events rather than ATP 250 qualifying. Bailly's one recorded hard-court match also finished in straight sets.
- Ten of Chidekh's fourteen completed hard-court matches in the window ended 2-0
- The window covers completed, non-retired matches from 26 August to 14 October 2026
- Chidekh's scorelines in that window: ten 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, two 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss
Bailly's recent fourteen-match record is 6-8, and just one of those matches was played on hard courts, so indoor hard is a surface with almost no evidence behind him. That single outing lasted two sets and yielded six games, which says little about his level in Brussels either way. The thin sample is uncertainty rather than proof of weakness, and it applies equally to any read on his current form.
- Bailly's only completed hard-court match in the window was a 4-6 2-6 loss to Timofey Skatov on 25 August 2026
- His overall record across fourteen tracked matches is 6 wins and 8 losses
- His most recent recorded match, on 3 September 2026, was a 4-6 0-6 loss on clay
Chidekh's most recent match before Brussels was a 7-6(6) 7-6(3) first-round loss to Jerome Kym at the Roanne Challenger, with both sets decided in tie-breaks. He therefore arrives on a defeat, with only two sets of competitive tennis in the week before this qualifying opener, directly after his title run. The narrow margin shows he stayed competitive, but the loss ends the winning sequence he carried through the indoor swing and leaves a short turnaround into a new event.
- Chidekh lost 7-6(6) 7-6(3) to Jerome Kym in the Roanne Challenger first round
- The match followed his Open de Vendée title on 4 October
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Clement Chidekh

1.15fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 87%

−5.0ppshort

Chidekh has won most of his recent hard-court matches and arrives on a title run, while Bailly's hard-court evidence is a single straight-set defeat.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Clement Chidekh

1.22fair 1.27

BetBugs 79% · Market 82%

−3.0ppshort

Chidekh has taken the opening set in most of his hard-court matches, while Bailly's only first set on the surface was a loss.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Clement Chidekh

1.22fair 1.27

BetBugs 79% · Market 82%

−3.0ppshort

Chidekh's second-set record on hard mirrors his strong first-set record, and Bailly's only second set on the surface was a heavy loss.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Chidekh has won most of his recent hard-court matches and arrives on a title run, while Bailly's hard-court evidence is a single straight-set defeat.
- Chidekh is 11-3 in his last 14 completed hard-court matches
- Bailly is ranked No. 337 with a 6-8 record across 14 matches, mostly on clay
- Bailly's only hard-court match in the sample was a 4-6 2-6 loss
- Chidekh won the Open de Vendee title on 4 October and reached a career-high No. 146
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance82%

Games4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh has produced several comfortable winning margins on hard, and Bailly's only surface outing was a clear defeat.
- Chidekh's recent hard-court game margins were +10, +6, +3, +11, -2 and -4
- He won three of those six matches by four games or more
- Bailly lost his only sampled hard-court match by six games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonClement Chidekh -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Half of Chidekh's recent hard-court matches ended within six games, so Bailly staying close is a reasonable outcome.
- Chidekh's recent hard-court game margins were +10, +6, +3, +11, -2 and -4
- Three of those six matches finished inside a six-game margin
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostGilles Arnaud Bailly +5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average first set in Chidekh's hard-court matches falls just under the line, and his wins often come by a break or two.
- Chidekh's first sets average 9.29 total games across 14 hard-court matches
- Three of his last six first sets finished with nine or fewer games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average second set in Chidekh's hard-court matches falls just below the line, with several 6-0 and 6-2 sets in the record.
- Chidekh's second sets average 9.14 total games across 14 hard-court matches
- Three of his last six second sets finished with nine or fewer games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's straight-set wins frequently finish below the line, and Bailly's only hard-court match produced just 18 games.
- Chidekh won three recent hard-court matches with totals of 14, 13 and 18 games
- He has won 10 of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 18.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Chidekh has taken the opening set in most of his hard-court matches, while Bailly's only first set on the surface was a loss.
- Chidekh won the first set in 11 of 14 hard-court matches
- He averages 5.9 games won against 3.4 lost in first sets
- Bailly lost his only sampled hard-court first set 4-6
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Chidekh's second-set record on hard mirrors his strong first-set record, and Bailly's only second set on the surface was a heavy loss.
- Chidekh won the second set in 11 of 14 hard-court matches
- He averages 5.7 games won against 3.4 lost in second sets
- Bailly lost his only sampled hard-court second set 2-6
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonClement ChidekhEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate Chidekh's recent hard-court record, and Bailly's lone hard-court match was also over in two sets.
- 10 of Chidekh's 14 hard-court matches ended 2-0
- Chidekh has won three recent hard-court matches 12-2, 12-6 and 12-1 in games
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh has repeatedly won on hard without dropping a set, and Bailly's one hard-court outing was a straight-set loss.
- Chidekh's hard-court scorelines include 10 wins in straight sets out of 14
- His straight-set wins have come by margins such as 12-2, 12-6 and 12-1 in games
BetBugs · Set BettingwonClement Chidekh 2-0Estimated chance64%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Chidekh's hard-court sets were settled by a break rather than reaching six-all, and Bailly's lone hard-court match had no tiebreak.
- 11 of Chidekh's 14 hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- His set averages of 5.9 won and 3.4 lost point away from tight sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Prediction history

Clement Chidekh: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Clement Chidekh matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Clement Chidekh7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh to win

58%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

10 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

8 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·65%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

Clement Chidekh to win

65%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

6 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

Clement Chidekh to win

62%probability

Aziz Dougaz won

Missed

Clement Chidekh

12W 3L

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#249Jerome Kym

6-2 6-0#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-2 6-4#371Henry Bernet

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#186Harold Mayot

6-4 3-6 6-2#305Ugo Blanchet

6-1 6-0#467David Goffin

6-4 6-4#186Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#322Lucas Poullain

7-5 6-4#1532Finn Bass

7-6(5) 6-1#564Samir Banerjee

6-1 6-1#560Sebastian Dominko

6-1 6-3#611Alexander Vasilev

6-1 6-4#891Axel Garcian

6-3 6-2#850Kenny de Schepper

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#56Arthur Gea

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6W 9L

6-0 ret.#309Calvin Hemery

6-4 6-0#128Hugo Dellien

7-6(3) 6-3#224Alex Barrena

6-4 6-2#210Timofey Skatov

4-6 6-1 6-4#355Norbert Gombos

6-2 6-4#301Raphael Perot

6-1 6-2—Fadi Bidan

6-2 6-4—Mac Visser

6-3 6-0—Zaccharie Cado

6-2 6-3#320Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-2#288Hynek Barton

7-6(4) 6-2#383Daniel Elahi Galan

2-6 6-4 6-2#306Filippo Romano

7-5 2-6 6-2#349Miguel Damas

5-7 6-4 7-5#774Andres Santamarta Roig

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCClement ChidekhChidekh

Last 15

7–0

9 core stats · 2 even

Gilles Arnaud BaillyBaillyGB

Clement Chidekh carries the stronger recent form — Gilles Arnaud Bailly's route runs through break pts saved.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.2%—63.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1573.9%+10.6pp63.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1556.9%+11.0pp45.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.4+2.50.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.40.6 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1544.2%+2.3pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1543.8%+2.0pp41.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.1%—56.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1555.2%+5.7pp49.5%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

63.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15—63.8%

73.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+10.6pp63.3%

56.9%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+11.0pp45.9%

3.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.50.9

1.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.6 fewer2.0

Return · 1–0

44.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.3pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

43.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp41.8%

56.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—56.1%

Points · 1–0

55.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.7pp49.5%