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Predictions graded

Yuta Shimizu #393Japan1Bernard Tomic #160Australia2

Sets 7-5 · 2-6 · 6-7Thu 1 Oct 2026, 05:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 233 places

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #393
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Tomic and Shimizu meet for a quarterfinal place at the Jingshan Challenger, with the higher-ranked, harder-serving Tomic the more likely winner — though their only completed meeting went the distance.

Neither quoted price holds up: Tomic at 1.55 needs him to win about two times in three, and Shimizu at 2.3 asks too much of the lower-ranked man. No price here is worth taking.

Context

Shimizu was ranked 395 when he beat the fourth seed Stefanos Sakellaridis 7-6(11) 6-2, edging the opening tiebreak 13-11 before taking six of the last eight games. Sakellaridis sat near 134, which makes this the strongest evidence in Shimizu's recent hard-court run that he can hold his level against a top-150 opponent rather than the lower-ranked fields he has mostly faced. The limitation is that it is one match: his season also includes losses to players ranked outside the top 300, including Arthur Weber and Ryan Colby. The result carries him into a second-round match where the winner reaches the quarterfinals.
- Shimizu won 7-6(11) 6-2 in the Jingshan first round .
- Sakellaridis entered as the tournament's fourth seed and was ranked near 134 against Shimizu's 395.
- The winner of this match advances to the quarterfinals.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:01 · Europe/BucharestTennis365 livescorelivescore.tennis365.com · 29 Sep 2026
Tomic beat Fajing Sun 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3, six days after Sun had beaten him 6-4 7-5, and the win needed a third set after Tomic dropped the second-set tiebreak 7-6(8). Reversing a loss to the same opponent inside a week is the most concrete signal in a run that has otherwise alternated sharply. The cost is workload: he has already played a three-set match against Rigele Te on 22 September before this one, and Sun, at 299, is ranked well below Shimizu's opening victim, so the result says more about Tomic's durability across a long match than about the level he is producing.
- Tomic won 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3 .
- Sun had beaten Tomic 6-4 7-5 on 23 September 2026.
- Tomic's earlier matches on this run include a three-set win over Rigele Te on 22 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:01 · Europe/BucharestTennis365 livescorelivescore.tennis365.com · 29 Sep 2026
Tomic is the higher-ranked player in this round-of-16 match and his serve has been the most reliable part of his recent hard-court record.
The serve numbers say Tomic should be hard to break at Jingshan, and his low double-fault count limits the free points he hands over. The break-point figure is the other side of it: he creates chances without converting them at a high rate, so a set that turns on a couple of return games could go either way.
- Across 15 hard-court matches tracked through 29 September 2026, Tomic averaged 8.0 aces and 1.6 double faults per match (120 aces and 24 double faults in total).
- He won 74.6% of first-serve points (531 of 712) and landed 63.1% of first serves (712 of 1128) in the same window.
- He converted 41 of 118 break points (34.7%) across those 15 matches.
Their only completed meeting came at Little Rock on 27 May 2026, where Tomic recovered from losing the first set to win 4-6 7-6(4) 7-5, with the second set decided by a tiebreak and the third by a single late break. That match is the only direct evidence of how the two match up, and it points to margins settled late in sets rather than a one-sided contest. The limitation is that it was played four months ago on a different hard court, so it is a reference point rather than a guide to conditions at Jingshan.
- The only completed meeting between the two came at Little Rock on 27 May 2026.
- Tomic won 4-6 7-6(4) 7-5, taking the second set in a tiebreak and the third by a single break.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:01 · Europe/BucharestPredictionist match pagepredictionist.com · 30 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Bernard Tomic

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

Tomic is higher-ranked, serves better and has recent hard-court wins, including against Shimizu, so he is the more likely winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Tomic is higher-ranked, serves better and has recent hard-court wins, including against Shimizu, so he is the more likely winner.
- Ranked 184, 9-6 in 15 hard-court matches this window.
- Averages 8.0 aces and 74.6% first-serve points won.
- Won the only previous meeting 4-6 7-6(4) 7-5.
- Beat Fajing Sun 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3 in the first round.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in this matchup have usually needed at least ten games, so over 9.5 is the more likely side.
- Shimizu's first sets average 10.13 games on hard.
- Tomic's first sets average 9.87 games on hard.
- Both players had first sets over 9.5 games in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been even longer on average, and Tomic's recent second sets often reached at least ten games.
- Shimizu's second sets average 10.27 games on hard.
- Tomic's second sets average 10.27 games on hard.
- Tomic had second sets over 9.5 games in five of his last six matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average near the line, and their head-to-head went long, so over is slightly more likely.
- Shimizu averages 23.2 total games per hard-court match.
- Tomic averages 23.9 total games per hard-court match.
- Their only meeting had 35 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance54%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common outcome for both players, making under 2.5 the more likely result.
- Tomic won 2-0 in five of 15 hard-court matches and lost 0-2 in four.
- Shimizu won 2-0 in six of 15 and lost 0-2 in five.
- Tomic's average sets per match is 2.4; Shimizu's is 2.27.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's second-set record is the better of the two, and he took a tight second set in their previous meeting.
- Tomic has won the second set in 9 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Shimizu has won the second set in 8 of 15.
- Tomic won a second-set tiebreak in the only head-to-head.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's first-set record is slightly better than Tomic's, and he started well in his opening match.
- Shimizu has won the first set in 8 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Tomic has lost the first set in 8 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Shimizu won his first set 7-6 in the first round here.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYuta ShimizuEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With a combined average below the line, under 5.5 is the more likely outcome.
- Shimizu averages 3.4 double faults; Tomic averages 1.6.
- Combined average is 5.0 double faults per match.
- Tomic has averaged only 1.6 double faults across 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are not a frequent feature in either player's recent hard-court matches, so no tiebreak is the more likely outcome.
- Shimizu had no tiebreak in 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Tomic had no tiebreak in 10 of 15.
- Only four of their last 12 combined matches included a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is just under the line, making under 13.5 the slightly more likely outcome.
- Tomic averages 8.0 aces; Shimizu averages 5.1.
- Combined average is 13.1 aces per match.
- Shimizu has averaged 5.1 aces across 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 13.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Bernard Tomic: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Bernard Tomic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bernard Tomic7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Cameron Norrie won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

72%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Conor Gannon won

Missed

Previous match context available

Yuta Shimizu

8W 7L

7-6(11) 6-2#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 2-6 7-5#357Philip Sekulic

6-4 6-4#405Arthur Weber

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#500Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#389Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#897Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#313Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#296Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#208Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#411Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#255Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#637Ryan Colby

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#149Michael Mmoh

6-4 7-6(2)#480Trevor Svajda

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#640Dan Martin

Bernard Tomic

9W 6L

6-4 6-7(8) 6-3#299Fajing Sun 6-4 7-5#299Fajing Sun 6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#840Rigele Te 7-6(3) 7-6(3)#182Pavel Kotov 6-3 6-4#493Alexandr Binda

6-3 6-2#350Jake Delaney

6-0 6-2#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-4 4-6 6-2#233Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#317Akira Santillan

7-5 7-6(3)#389Kasidit Samrej

6-4 3-6 6-4#408Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#125Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#343Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#39Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YSYuta ShimizuShimizu

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Bernard TomicTomicBT

Bernard Tomic carries the stronger recent form — Yuta Shimizu's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In60.7%+2.4pp63.1%

1st Serve Won71.8%+2.8pp74.6%

2nd Serve Won49.4%+2.5pp46.9%

Aces / Match5.1+2.98.0

Double Faults / Match3.41.8 fewer1.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.1%—37.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted41.2%+6.5pp34.7%

Break Pts Saved62.6%+1.2pp61.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.5%—50.8%

Serve · 1–4

60.7%1st Serve In+2.4pp63.1%

71.8%1st Serve Won+2.8pp74.6%

49.4%2nd Serve Won+2.5pp46.9%

5.1Aces / Match+2.98.0

3.4Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer1.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.1%Return Pts Won—37.5%

Pressure · 2–0

41.2%Break Pts Converted+6.5pp34.7%

62.6%Break Pts Saved+1.2pp61.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won—50.8%