Bernard Tomic #160Australia00 – 2Fajing Sun #326China2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Tomic has the stronger serve and the better hard-court game record, which gives him the steadier route to holding and to creating return chances.

• Tomic is 10-5 on hard in the sample with 53.7% of games won (189-163); Sun is 7-7 on hard with 49.7% of games won (172-174).
• Tomic wins 75.3% of first-serve points and hits 8.0 aces per match; Sun wins 68.9% and hits 4.1 aces on hard.
• Tomic is ranked 182 and Sun 314; both won three-set qualifying openers on 22 September.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

First sets in this sample have slightly more often reached ten games than not.

• Tomic's first sets average 9.8 total games on hard; Sun's average 9.86.
• Tomic has had 3 first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches; Sun has had 1 in 14.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tomic's shorter matches pull the combined expectation slightly below the line.

• Tomic's hard-court matches average 23.5 games, below the line.
• Tomic has finished 9 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Sun's longer second sets balance Tomic's shorter ones, leaving the line close to even.

• Tomic's second sets average 9.67 total games on hard; Sun's average 10.21.
• Sun has had 3 second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

The second set is Tomic's strongest stretch of a match in this sample, and Sun's second-set numbers are the weakest on his side.

• Tomic's second sets on hard: 11 wins, 4 losses, 5.47 games won against 4.2 lost.
• Sun's second sets on hard: 5 wins, 9 losses, 4.93 games won against 5.29 lost.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Tomic has the better first-set game numbers on the surface, which points to a modest edge in the opening set.

• Tomic's first sets on hard: 7 wins, 8 losses, 5.13 games won and 4.67 lost on average.
• Sun's first sets on hard: 5 wins, 9 losses, 4.71 games won and 5.14 lost on average.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Both players have gone to a decider in roughly two of every five hard-court matches, so a third set is a realistic but not dominant outcome.

• Tomic's hard-court matches average 2.4 sets, with 10 of 15 going to a decider or not needing one across 36 sets.
• Sun's hard-court matches average 2.43 sets; 6 of his 14 went to a third set.