ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Pavel Kotov #250Russia2Bernard Tomic #160Australia0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Sat 19 Sept 2026, 11:55 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 90 places

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Tomic is a justified medium-confidence favorite at 2.20, with his better-sampled hard-court form (10-5, 54.1% games won) and dominant straight-set run in Guangzhou outweighing Kotov's thin 6-2 hard record.

The best angle is the match-winner value (12.5-point edge), with Over 21.5 games and a tiebreak in the match as the strongest supporting plays given both players' hold-heavy serve profiles.

Context

Tomic, 33, is a former top-20 player now ranked 185 and competing mainly on hard courts, where he has spent most of his 2026 season. Kotov, 27, is ranked 221 and has also played most of his recent tennis on hard courts.
Tomic's 10-5 hard-court record over 15 matches is the more reliable recent surface sample, while Kotov's 6-2 mark comes from only eight matches. Kotov's serve numbers on hard courts are strong, including 76.1% of first-serve points won, so the gap in win-loss records does not automatically translate into a one-sided match.
- Tomic is 10-5 on hard courts in his last 15 matches, with 65.7% of sets won.
- Kotov is 6-2 on hard courts in his last 15 matches, with 68.4% of sets won.
- Kotov's hard-court first-serve points won is 76.1% across eight matches, the stronger serve figure in this matchup.
Tomic, 33, is the ATP No. 185 right-hander with a two-handed backhand and the stronger hard-court serve in this matchup. He is into the Guangzhou semi-final after a 6–0, 6–2 opening win over Yuta Kikuchi on 15 September.
In that opener he took a medical timeout at the end of the first set because he felt unwell, then finished the match in straight sets. He has since completed further matches this week, so the interruption looks manageable rather than ongoing, but it is the one fitness note worth tracking if the semi-final goes long or the conditions are heavy.
- The 15 September Guangzhou first-round match included a medical timeout at the end of the opening set, followed by a completed straight-sets victory.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 22:14 · Europe/BucharestTomic Crushes Opponent in 56 Minutes to Open Guangzhou Campaignen.tennistemple.com · 15 Sep 2026
Tomic, at 196 cm, has a serve that has historically produced a high ace count, and his recent hard-court numbers reflect that. Kotov, at 191 cm, also serves well but with a lower ace rate.
Tomic's 7.2 aces per match on hard courts is a clear edge in free points, while Kotov's slightly higher first-serve points won suggests he is more efficient when the first serve lands. The contrast means both players can hold comfortably, and return games may decide the match.
- Tomic has averaged 7.2 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Kotov has averaged 6.3 aces per match on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Tomic has won 74.4% of first-serve points on hard courts; Kotov has won 76.1%.
Kotov's 2026 season has been sharply divided by surface: 12-3 on hard courts and 2-5 on clay. His career clay record is also modest compared to his hard-court results.
The clay sample is large enough to be a real weakness, but it is not relevant to this match. On hard courts Kotov has won 54.8% of games and saved 68.2% of break points, numbers that keep him competitive against Tomic's stronger overall hard-court record.
- Kotov is 2-5 on clay in his last 15 matches, with 46.1% of games won.
- Kotov is 6-2 on hard courts in the same window, with 54.8% of games won.
- The Guangzhou Challenger is played on hard courts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Tomic's better-covered recent Hard window (10-5, 54.1% games) and higher serve ceiling (7.2 aces/match, 74.4% first-serve points won) give him a modest edge over Kotov, whose strong Hard record rests on a thin 8-match sample.
- Tomic last-15 Hard record 10-5 (66.7%) with 54.1% games won and 51.4% total points won (15 matches tracked, all Hard).
- Kotov last-15 Hard record 6-2 (75%) but only 8 matches tracked; overall last-15 record 8-7 (53.3%) with 50.7% total points won.
- Tomic 2026 Hard season 22-14 vs Kotov 12-3 Hard, but Kotov's 2026 Hard sample is small and his overall recent window is weaker.
- Tomic won three straight Guangzhou matches 6-3 6-4, 6-3 6-2, 6-0 6-2 (Sept 15-18); Kotov also won three straight in the same event.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBernard TomicEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's recent matches are long and tiebreak-heavy (115.5 min average, multiple 7-6 sets), and his serve/return profile suggests competitive games even if Tomic wins, pushing the total over the line.
- Kotov last-15 average match duration 115.5 minutes with 50.9% games won, indicating tight, long matches.
- Kotov's recent Guangzhou wins include 7-6(2), 7-6(4) and 7-6(4) sets, producing high game counts.
- Tomic's last-15 average duration is only 95.5 minutes, but his three Guangzhou wins were lopsided (12-7, 12-5, 12-2 games).
- Both players have 60%+ break-point save rates recently, limiting break-heavy short sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's comparable Hard games-won rate and competitive recent scorelines make a +3.5 handicap a reasonable cushion even if Tomic edges the match.
- Kotov last-15 Hard games won 54.8% (103/188) across 8 matches.
- Tomic last-15 Hard games won 54.1% (179/331) across 15 matches.
- Kotov's recent Guangzhou wins were competitive (13-7, 13-10, 13-7 games).
- Both players have similar break-point conversion rates (Kotov 39.2%, Tomic 39.8% on Hard).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPavel Kotov +3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's stronger recent Hard serve numbers and clean opening-set record in Guangzhou give him a slight first-set edge, though Kotov's own first-serve efficiency keeps this low-confidence.
- Tomic has won the opening set in his last three Guangzhou matches (6-3, 6-3, 6-0) Sept 15-18.
- Tomic first-serve points won 74.4% on Hard last 15 matches, supporting early-set hold security.
- Kotov first-serve points won 76.1% on Hard last 15 (8 matches tracked), so early breaks may be scarce.
- Kotov's most recent loss (Sept 12) came in straight sets, showing he can start slowly.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBernard TomicEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's clean second-set record in Guangzhou and superior recent Hard set-win rate give him a slight edge, though Kotov's own Hard set numbers keep confidence low.
- Tomic won the second set in all three Guangzhou matches (6-4, 6-2, 6-2).
- Tomic last-15 Hard sets won 65.7% (23/35).
- Kotov last-15 Hard sets won 68.4% (13/19) but on only 8 matches tracked.
- Tomic's 74.4% first-serve points won on Hard supports sustained set-level pressure.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBernard TomicEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent Hard double-fault rates are low and stable, making an under 5.5 total the stronger side.
- Tomic last-15 Hard double faults per match 2.0 (30 in 15 matches).
- Kotov last-15 Hard double faults per match 2.5 (20 in 8 matches).
- Both players' first-serve-in percentages are stable (Tomic 63.3%, Kotov 61.4% on Hard).
- Combined recent average is roughly 4.5 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined recent Hard ace rates (7.2 + 6.3 per match) and both players' tall, serve-oriented profiles point to a total above 8.5.
- Tomic last-15 Hard aces per match 7.2 (108 aces in 15 matches).
- Kotov last-15 Hard aces per match 6.3 (50 aces in 8 matches).
- Both players are 191cm+ with two-handed backhands and strong first-serve percentages (63%+).
- Tomic's 196cm frame and 74.4% first-serve points won support a high ace count.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotov's recent tiebreak-heavy run and both players' strong first-serve hold numbers make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Kotov's last three Guangzhou matches each featured at least one tiebreak (7-6(2), 7-6(4), 7-6(4)).
- Kotov last-15 Hard first-serve points won 76.1%, making his service games hard to break.
- Tomic last-15 Hard first-serve points won 74.4%, similarly hold-oriented.
- Both players have 60%+ break-point save rates recently, reducing break frequency.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance54%

Prediction history

Bernard Tomic has been reliable when projected to win, fulfilling 5 of 7 recent winner projections

Bernard Tomic fulfilled 5 of 7 recent match-winner projections, a 71% rate. His 5 fulfilled predictions slightly exceeded the 4.7 expected from his average estimated probability of 67.4. Both missed projections were losses, and his current 58% probability sits within his historical range of 58% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Bernard Tomic7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#39Cameron Norrie2-0#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Cameron Norrie won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#498Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano0-2#171Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

62%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Los Cabos

#473Miguel Tobon1-2#170Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

72%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#254Kaichi Uchida0-2#192Bernard Tomic

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Matched

16 Jun·Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

BetBugsBernard Tomic to win·78%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

Dublin - Ireland

#192Bernard Tomic1-2—Conor Gannon

Bernard Tomic to win

78%probability

Conor Gannon won

Missed

Previous match context available

Pavel Kotov

8W 7L

6-1 7-6(2)#229Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(4)#319Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-1#126Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 7-5#364Marat Sharipov (RUS)

3-6 6-1 6-1#176Alexis Galarneau

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#351Jake Delaney

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#197Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#392Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#663Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#685Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#99Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-1#306Guy Den Ouden

1-6 6-1 6-2#271Cezar Cretu

6-1 3-6 6-4#164Gauthier Onclin

1-6 6-2 6-3#342Mikhail Kukushkin

Bernard Tomic

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#548Alexandr Binda

6-3 6-2#351Jake Delaney

6-0 6-2#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-4 4-6 6-2#230Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#319Akira Santillan

7-5 7-6(3)#387Kasidit Samrej

6-4 3-6 6-4#411Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#138Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#341Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#39Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#471Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#495Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#214Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#140Mark Lajal

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PKPavel KotovKotov

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Bernard TomicTomicBT

Bernard Tomic carries the stronger recent form — Pavel Kotov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In62.5%+0.8pp63.3%

1st Serve Won69.6%+4.8pp74.4%

2nd Serve Won52.5%+6.3pp46.2%

Aces / Match4.9+2.37.2

Double Faults / Match2.30.3 fewer2.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.3%—38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.6%+1.2pp39.8%

Break Pts Saved62.5%+2.3pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.7%—51.4%

Serve · 1–4

62.5%1st Serve In+0.8pp63.3%

69.6%1st Serve Won+4.8pp74.4%

52.5%2nd Serve Won+6.3pp46.2%

4.9Aces / Match+2.37.2

2.3Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.3%Return Pts Won—38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

38.6%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp39.8%

62.5%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.7%Total Pts Won—51.4%