ChinaATP HangzhouFinished

Predictions graded

Bernard Tomic #160Australia2Rigele Te #809China1

Sets 6-7 · 6-4 · 7-5Tue 22 Sept 2026, 05:43 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–654%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 649 places

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 17 on 11 January 2016. ITF lists grass as his preferred surface; he is right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Rigele Te

China

Te, 28, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-best ATP singles ranking was No. 395 in October 2018, and the ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #809
Peak ranking: #395 · 2018
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 12:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Ranking sets the tone in the Hangzhou qualifying opener: Tomic, the world No. 182, meets No.

839 Rigele Te, and both men usually finish their hard-court matches in straight sets. Tomic is the likely winner. Two prices are worth backing — Tomic to win at 1.50 and Te to edge the game count at 8.00 — while 2.40 on a Te win and 1.05 on Tomic sharing the game count should be left.

Context

Te's scoreline spread in that window was seven 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win and one 1-2 loss.
That pattern points to a short match against a higher-ranked opponent, though the sample is 12 matches and one retirement is excluded from it. It lines up with Tomic's own hard-court record, where nine of 14 matches ended in straight sets.
- 2026-06-21 to 2026-09-07: Te's 12 completed hard-court matches produced scorelines of 2-0 (7), 0-2 (3), 2-1 (1) and 1-2 (1).
- One retirement is excluded from that sample.
Tomic took both sets to a tiebreak and still lost, winning 12 games to Kotov's 14.
A 12-14 game defeat to a top-200 opponent is a narrow result rather than a heavy one, and it was the only one of his last six matches in which he failed to take a set. Te, by contrast, has played only one tiebreak in his 12 completed hard-court matches.
- 2026-09-19: Tomic lost to Pavel Kotov (No. 188) 0-2, 6-7 6-7, winning 12 games to 14.
His level first-set record sits inside a 9-5 match record over the same stretch of 14 matches.
A slow start would not be unusual, and the second set is where he has most often taken control. Te has been solid early himself, winning 7 of 12 first sets, so the opening set may be closer than the ranking gap suggests.
- 2026-07-25 to 2026-09-19: Tomic's 14 completed hard-court matches, set 1 record 7-7, set 2 record 10-4.
- One retirement is excluded from the sample.
- His match record over the same 14 matches is 9-5.
It is the only match against a top-20 player in Te's supplied record, and he pushed the second set to a tiebreak.
The surface differs from this hard-court event, so the set scores are the only guide it offers, and they show the gap in level he faces when the ranking jumps sharply. His hard-court evidence remains the more relevant reference.
- 2026-09-18: Te lost 1-6 6-7 to Casper Ruud (No. 17) on clay, winning 7 games to 13.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Tomic has a much higher ranking and has faced stronger hard-court opposition than Te, who has mostly beaten lower-ranked players.
- Bernard Tomic is ranked 182; Rigele Te is ranked 839.
- Tomic is 9-5 on hard in his last 14 completed matches.
- Te is 8-5 on hard in his last 13 completed matches, but his recent hard loss was to No. 221 Rio Noguchi.
- Tomic's recent hard wins came against players ranked 313, 342, 490 and 892; his losses were to No. 188 and No. 234.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance72%

Games5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic is likely to at least match Te on total games, with ties being rare.
- Tomic wins or ties the game count in 73% of this assessment.
- Tomic's match-win probability is 72%.
- Tomic's hard-court scorelines include 6 two-set wins and 3 three-set wins in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBernard Tomic +0.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
If Tomic wins the match, he usually also wins the game count, especially in straight sets.
- Tomic's match-win probability is 72% in this assessment.
- Tomic wins more games in most match wins; only a rare lopsided set loss could flip the game count.
- Tomic's hard-court set evidence shows a total games average of 22.6 over 14 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBernard Tomic -0.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's straight-set wins usually give him a cushion of at least two games, but three-set wins can be closer.
- Tomic wins by at least two games in 63% of this assessment.
- All of Tomic's straight-set wins typically produce a margin of at least two games.
- About 60% of Tomic's three-set wins are estimated to have a margin of two or more games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBernard Tomic -1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have typically ended with one player winning by three or more games, keeping the total under 9.5.
- Te's first sets average 8.9 total games over 12 matches.
- Tomic's first sets average 9.6 total games over 14 matches.
- Combined first-set average is about 9.3 total games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is below the line, and both players have produced several short second sets.
- Te's second sets average 9.1 total games over 12 matches.
- Tomic's second sets average 9.6 total games over 14 matches.
- Combined second-set average is about 9.4 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined averages sit just above the line, and any three-set match pushes the total over.
- Tomic's hard-court matches average 22.6 total games over 14 matches.
- Te's hard-court matches average 19.8 total games over 12 matches.
- Three-set matches in this assessment carry an average of about 28 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Te covers if the match is close or if he wins, as the line allows a margin of up to two games against him.
- Te covers +2.5 in 51% of this assessment.
- Te's match-win probability is 28%.
- Te's hard-court sets average 19.8 total games over 12 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonRigele Te +2.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually finish in straight sets on hard courts, and the scoreline distribution supports a high straight-set rate.
- Tomic has nine straight-set results in 14 hard-court matches.
- Te has ten straight-set results in 12 hard-court matches.
- Tomic's recent hard-court matches include four straight-set wins in his last six.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong in second sets, but Tomic's ranking and overall form give him the edge.
- Tomic has a 10-4 second-set record on hard over 14 matches.
- Te has a 9-3 second-set record on hard over 12 matches.
- Tomic's second-set average total games is 9.6.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's higher ranking gives him a slight edge, but first sets have been close for both players.
- Tomic has a 7-7 first-set record on hard over 14 matches.
- Te has a 7-5 first-set record on hard over 12 matches.
- Tomic is ranked 182 and Te is ranked 839.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBernard TomicEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tomic's most common winning scoreline is straight sets, and Te often loses in straight sets.
- Tomic has six 2-0 wins in 14 hard-court matches.
- Te has three 0-2 losses in 12 hard-court matches.
- Tomic's match-win probability is 72%.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostBernard Tomic 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Tomic has four tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
- Te has one tiebreak in 12 hard-court matches.
- Combined tiebreak rate is about 19% over these matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Bernard Tomic

9W 6L

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#188Pavel Kotov 6-3 6-4#490Alexandr Binda

6-3 6-2#342Jake Delaney

6-0 6-2#892Yuta Kikuchi

6-4 4-6 6-2#234Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#313Akira Santillan

7-5 7-6(3)#382Kasidit Samrej

6-4 3-6 6-4#408Masamichi Imamura

6-2 5-7 6-2#136Lloyd Harris

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#338Edward Winter

6-1 6-0#39Cameron Norrie

6-2 6-4#26Karen Khachanov

6-1 6-0#471Juan Alejandro Hernandez

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#497Miguel Tobon

1-3 ret.#208Tristan Boyer

Rigele Te

8W 7L

6-1 7-6(1)#17Casper Ruud

7-6(5) 6-2#221Rio Noguchi

5-7 6-2 6-4#796Tianhui Zhang

6-1 6-4#604Chase Ferguson

6-4 6-3#830Joshua Charlton

6-0 6-4—Xirui Han

6-4 6-1—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-1 6-4#656Isaac Becroft

6-4 6-4—Daniil Sarksian

6-3 3-6 7-5#299Oliver Crawford

6-4 4-6 10-6—Gianluca Carlini

6-2 6-3—Oliwer Wierzbicki

6-1 6-1—Artom Mukhtarulin

7-6(2) 3-0 ret.#413Patrick Schoen

6-2 7-5—Samuel De Felipe Garcia

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BTBernard TomicTomic

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Rigele TeTeRT

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in pressure.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 11/1563.1%+1.7pp61.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 11/1574.4%—74.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 11/1546.1%+6.9pp53.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 11/157.3+0.96.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 11/151.9—2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 11/1539.3%+3.1pp36.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 11/1540.7%+6.7pp47.4%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 11/1559.3%+5.3pp64.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 11/1551.5%—51.7%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

63.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 11/15+1.7pp61.4%

74.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 11/15—74.8%

46.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 11/15+6.9pp53.0%

7.3Aces / Match15/15 · 11/15+0.96.4

1.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 11/15—2.0

Return · 1–0

39.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 11/15+3.1pp36.2%

Pressure · 0–2

40.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 11/15+6.7pp47.4%

59.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 11/15+5.3pp64.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 11/15—51.7%

Bernard Tomic

Rigele Te

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Bernard Tomic

Rigele Te -0.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games5 of 7 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Bernard Tomic

Rigele Te

Stat Battle