ChinaWTA JingshanFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alevtina Ibragimova #218Russia1Kyoka Okamura #307Japan2

Sets 7-6 · 1-6 · 3-6Thu 1 Oct 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–736%

Edges0–50%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlevtina Ibragimova · 89 places

Alevtina Ibragimova

Russia

Public search evidence identifies Ibragimova as 21. No reliable source in the requested search set established her career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #218
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Kyoka Okamura

Japan

Okamura, 30, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her career-best singles ranking is No. 178, reached in 2025; her recorded match volume is primarily on hard courts.

Current ranking: #307
Peak ranking: #178 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 01:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Ibragimova sits 135 ranking places above Okamura, No. 168 to No. 303, and has won 53.3% of her hard-court games to Okamura's 43% across their recent samples, so she should win this Jingshan meeting — but the 1.3 match price asks for more than that record justifies.

The one quote offering something is Okamura to win the opening set at 2.9; her first sets are 7-8 on hard while Ibragimova has won three of six.

Context

A straight-set defeat reads as routine, but this one ran past two hours against the No. 31 player and sixth seed, with Okamura saving two match points before a forehand error closed it out. It places her level nearer the top 200 than her No. 303 ranking indicates and shows she can hold long deuce games against a far higher-ranked opponent. The limitation is that it was still a defeat and came in mid-September, so it evidences competitiveness rather than a result against elite opposition.
- Okamura played the Singapore Open main draw as a qualifier and met sixth seed Leylah Fernandez in the first round
- Fernandez won 6-2, 6-3 in a match lasting roughly two hours and 18 minutes at OCBC Arena
- Okamura saved two match points before a forehand error ended the match
- Fernandez held 22 break-point chances in the match, an unusually high number for a straight-set win
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Okamura's first sets on hard stand at 7-8, so she has generally started matches level before the second set has turned against her.
The second set is where Okamura's hard-court record comes apart, and it is the most lopsided number in this matchup. Ibragimova has won four of her six second sets on hard, so a match that reaches a second set leans to the higher-ranked player. It is a 15-match sample, and Okamura did take the second set 6-4 in her most recent win, so it points a direction rather than settling anything.
- Okamura has won 3 of 15 second sets in the hard-court matches tracked between 2026-05-20 and 2026-09-29
- She averages 3.3 games won and 5.4 games lost per second set in that sample
- 12 of those 15 hard-court matches ended with a lost second set
Ibragimova spent an extra set and a deciding set on court, dropping the opener before closing 7-5 in the third, while Okamura finished her match in two sets. That is the only asymmetry in how the two arrived at this meeting, and it leaves Ibragimova the likelier of the pair to carry heavier legs. The counterweight is opponent quality: Ibragimova's opponent sits inside the top 300 while Okamura's is outside the top 800, so part of the workload difference reflects who each was facing.
- Ibragimova won 3-6, 6-4, 7-5 over Daria Khomutsianskaya in the Jingshan third round
- Okamura won 6-2, 6-4 over Ru Xi Wu in the same round on the same day
- Jingshan third-round results list both wins completing
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:16 · Europe/BucharestJingshan Tennis Open: Ibragimova vs Okamurawww.tennismajors.com · 29 Sep 2026
The 135-place gap makes Ibragimova the higher-ranked player in this matchup and frames her as the one with the better recent results. It is not a clean guide to the two players' levels, because Okamura reached a career-best No. 178 in 2025 and has spent much of her career near the top 200, well above where she sits now. The 21-year-old Ibragimova's paper advantage is therefore narrower than the raw numbers suggest.
- Ibragimova is listed at WTA No. 168
- Okamura is listed at WTA No. 303
- Okamura's career-best ranking of No. 178 was reached in 2025
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 01:16 · Europe/BucharestIbragimova vs Okamura, Jingshan Tennis Openwww.flashscore.in · 29 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alevtina Ibragimova

1.36fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 73.5%

−1.5ppshort

Okamura's second sets have been heavily negative while Ibragimova's have been positive.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alevtina Ibragimova

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Ibragimova holds the much higher ranking and a clearly better share of games on this surface.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

−3.4ppshort

Two-set finishes have been the norm for both players on this surface.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Alevtina Ibragimova 2-0

1.80fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 55.6%

−3.6ppshort

Ibragimova has won several recent hard matches in straight sets while Okamura's second sets have collapsed.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Ibragimova holds the much higher ranking and a clearly better share of games on this surface.
- Ibragimova is 4-2 on hard in her last six, winning 53.3% of games
- Okamura is 4-11 on hard in her last 15, winning 43% of games
- Rankings: Ibragimova No. 168, Okamura No. 303
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most likely outcomes, including any three-setter, leave the margin inside this line.
- Ibragimova's most recent hard win was by one game over three sets
- Okamura's 15 hard matches include a 13-9 win and a 12-6 win
- Ibragimova's hard-court game share is 53.3%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKyoka Okamura +4.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average below the line, driven by Okamura's lopsided games.
- Ibragimova's second sets average 8.8 total games on hard
- Okamura's second sets average 8.7 total games on hard
- Okamura wins only 3.3 games per second set
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
When Ibragimova wins in straight sets the margin usually clears this line.
- Ibragimova wins 53.3% of hard-court games to Okamura's 43%
- Ibragimova's recent straight-set hard wins came by 6 and 7 games
- Okamura's recent hard losses came by 6, 6 and 7 games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlevtina Ibragimova -2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches sit right around the line, with a slight lean to the over if a decider arrives.
- Ibragimova's hard matches average 20.3 total games
- Okamura's hard matches average 20.6 total games
- Ibragimova's average hard match lasts 110 minutes
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's opening sets have regularly run past nine games.
- Ibragimova's first sets average 9.5 total games on hard
- Okamura's first sets average 9.2 total games on hard
- Ibragimova has played no first-set tiebreaks in six hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Okamura's second sets have been heavily negative while Ibragimova's have been positive.
- Okamura has won 3 of 15 second sets on hard
- Ibragimova has won 4 of 6 second sets on hard
- Okamura's average second set is 3.3 games won to 5.4 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Two-set finishes have been the norm for both players on this surface.
- Ibragimova's six hard matches averaged 2.17 sets
- Okamura's 15 hard matches averaged 2.27 sets
- Ibragimova's 2-0 scorelines are the most common result in her hard sample
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ibragimova is the stronger player overall, even though her own first sets have been even.
- Ibragimova has won 3 of 6 opening sets on hard
- Okamura has won 7 of 15 opening sets on hard
- Ibragimova won 10 of her last 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Ibragimova has won several recent hard matches in straight sets while Okamura's second sets have collapsed.
- Three of Ibragimova's six hard-court matches on record were 2-0 wins
- Okamura has lost 12 of her last 15 second sets on hard
- Okamura's 0-2 defeats made up 8 of her last 15 hard matches
BetBugs · Set BettinglostAlevtina Ibragimova 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court matches for both players have almost always been settled before 6-6.
- Two of Okamura's 15 hard matches had a tiebreak
- Ibragimova's six hard matches contained none
- Combined, tiebreaks appeared in about one in ten recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits above the line even though neither player serves especially big.
- Ibragimova averages 2.0 aces per hard match
- Okamura averages 1.3 aces per hard match
- Combined average is roughly 3.3 aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average falls just under the line for a two-set match.
- Ibragimova averages 3.7 double faults per hard match
- Okamura averages 3.6 double faults per hard match
- Both players served the same 54 double faults across 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Alevtina Ibragimova: 6/6 recent winner projections matched

6 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Alevtina Ibragimova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alevtina Ibragimova6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#219Alevtina Ibragimova2-1#881Maia Ilinca Burcescu

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·78%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#219Alevtina Ibragimova2-1#881Maia Ilinca Burcescu

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

78%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

23 Jul·WTA Palermo

#236Alevtina Ibragimova2-0#265Alice Rame

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·62%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#236Alevtina Ibragimova2-0#265Alice Rame

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

62%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

21 Jul·WTA Palermo

#148Tamara Zidansek1-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·55%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#148Tamara Zidansek1-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

55%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Iasi

#127Dominika Salkova0-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·58%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#127Dominika Salkova0-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

58%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

12 Jul·WTA Iasi

#632Maria Kozyreva0-2#271Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·65%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#632Maria Kozyreva0-2#271Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

65%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

Previous match context available

Alevtina Ibragimova

10W 5L

3-6 6-4 7-5#291Daria Khomutsianskaya 6-3 6-2#175Yeon Woo Ku 7-5 6-2#254Sara Saito 6-3 6-2#288Rina Saigo

7-5 6-4#205Rositsa Dencheva

4-6 6-2 6-3#224Alicia Herrero Linana

6-2 6-3#284Aurora Zantedeschi

7-5 6-1#146Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-2 7-6(2)#229Julie Struplova

6-4 6-3#370Mariam Bolkvadze

6-2 6-4#152Rebecca Sramkova

6-3 6-2#132Lucia Bronzetti

6-4 3-6 7-5#838Maia Ilinca Burcescu

6-3 6-4#105Francesca Jones

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#218Clara Burel

Kyoka Okamura

4W 11L

6-2 6-4#813Ru Xi Wu 6-2 6-3#26Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-1 6-1#259Mei Yamaguchi 7-6(2) 6-3#862Eva Marie Desvignes

6-2 7-5#291Daria Khomutsianskaya

6-3 6-2#358Kristiana Sidorova

6-1 6-4#216Hayu Kinoshita

7-5 6-1#148Carol Young Suh Lee

6-2 6-1#63Lanlana Tararudee

6-3 6-1#141Susan Bandecchi

7-5 6-1#277Hiromi Abe

4-6 6-3 6-2#356Varvara Panshina

6-1 3-6 6-4#277Hiromi Abe

4-6 6-4 7-6(3)#867Yanan Hou

4-6 6-4 6-3#262Valentina Ryser

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AIAlevtina IbragimovaIbragimova

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Kyoka OkamuraOkamuraKO

Alevtina Ibragimova carries the stronger recent form — Kyoka Okamura's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In71.6%+8.2pp63.4%

1st Serve Won54.6%+2.4pp57.0%

2nd Serve Won46.4%+1.1pp45.3%

Aces / Match1.5—1.3

Double Faults / Match3.6—3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.2%+5.7pp42.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.3%+10.3pp40.0%

Break Pts Saved51.0%+4.0pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.3%+2.8pp47.5%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

71.6%1st Serve In+8.2pp63.4%

54.6%1st Serve Won+2.4pp57.0%

46.4%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp45.3%

1.5Aces / Match—1.3

3.6Double Faults / Match—3.6

Return · 1–0

48.2%Return Pts Won+5.7pp42.5%

Pressure · 1–1

50.3%Break Pts Converted+10.3pp40.0%

51.0%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

50.3%Total Pts Won+2.8pp47.5%