ChinaWTA JingshanFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alevtina Ibragimova #218Russia2Daria Khomutsianskaya #291Belarus1

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 7-5Tue 29 Sept 2026, 07:19 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlevtina Ibragimova · 73 places

Alevtina Ibragimova

Russia

Public search evidence identifies Ibragimova as 21. No reliable source in the requested search set established her career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #218
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Daria Khomutsianskaya

Belarus

Khomutsianskaya represents Belarus and is ranked No. 291. Almost all of her recent matches have come on hard courts in China, where she reached the Guiyang semifinals.

Current ranking: #291
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 16:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Seventh seed Ibragimova, No. 168, is the likelier winner against No.

291 Khomutsianskaya, whose nine hard-court wins in this window came against far lower-ranked opponents. But 1.35 for Ibragimova to win the match asks more than the case supports. Three quoted prices do offer something: straight sets at 1.4, Khomutsianskaya to win the first set at 2.75, and Khomutsianskaya to win 2-0 at 5.25.

Context

Ibragimova has played compact, straight-set hard-court matches in this window, in her wins and her losses alike.
All five of her completed hard-court matches in the window ended 2-0 or 0-2, and both defeats followed the same pattern. Her first sets average 5.2 games won to 4.4 lost and her second sets 4.6 to 4.0, so the sets are usually decided before six games all. Five matches is a narrow base, and Khomutsianskaya has taken three of her fourteen hard matches to a decider, which is the obvious way this pattern could break.
- 24 August to 22 September 2026: five completed hard-court matches, 3-2 record, all finished in straight sets (three 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses).
- Ten sets played across those five matches with no tiebreaks.
- Average 18.2 games per match, with set one averaging 9.6 games and set two 8.6 games.
The 26 September result sits at the bottom of her recent range rather than its middle: straight-set wins by 12-2, 12-1 and 12-6 on 23, 24 and 25 September preceded it. It shows how widely her level against lower-ranked opposition has swung inside a single week. It is one match, and Ibragimova's own last hard-court outing was also a straight-sets defeat, so it should not be read as a trend or as evidence about her fitness.
- 26 September 2026: lost 2-6 0-6 to Yuhan Wang, ranked 744, winning two games and losing twelve.
- The match was completed, not a retirement.
Ibragimova is seeded No. 7 at a 125-level hard-court event, a placement consistent with her No. 168 ranking against Khomutsianskaya's No. 291. A seed fixes her bracket position and can postpone meetings with the highest-ranked entrants, but it provides no in-match protection in a first round. Both players sit outside the top 150, so the ranking gap behind this seeding is real but narrow.
- Ibragimova is listed as the No. 7 seed at WTA 125 Jingshan.
- Her first-round opponent at Jingshan is Daria Khomutsianskaya.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 16:10 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipewww.lequipe.fr · 27 Sep 2026
Ibragimova's most recent competitive match was a Seoul first-round loss, 6-3 6-2 to home player Yeon Woo Ku, after she had played through qualifying without dropping a set. It shows recent hard-court match volume and a step up to tour-level opposition that ended her Korean week. That matters because her Jingshan opponent is ranked well below the tour-level field she met in Seoul, a different task from the opposition that stopped her there.
- Ibragimova came through Seoul qualifying without losing a set.
- She lost 6-3 6-2 to Yeon Woo Ku in the Seoul first round.
- The win was Yeon Woo Ku's first at tour level.
ReportedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 16:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
The higher-ranked seeded player has the better serve numbers and has been beating opponents of this standard, while the lower-ranked player's wins came against far weaker fields.
- Ibragimova is ranked No. 168 and seeded seventh; Khomutsianskaya is No. 291
- Ibragimova has won 49 of 91 hard-court games (3-2 record) in her 5 tracked hard matches, with 55.6% first-serve points won
- Khomutsianskaya's 9-5 hard-court run came against opponents ranked 579-773, and she lost her latest match 2-6 0-6 to the world No. 744
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The favorite's typical hard-court match is short and not one-sided, so a five-game winning margin is not the more likely result.
- Ibragimova averages 18.2 games per hard match, with no three-set matches in the sample
- Khomutsianskaya has three three-set matches in 14 hard matches
- Ibragimova is 3-2 on hard, with both defeats in straight sets
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDaria Khomutsianskaya +4.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pooling the two second-set averages leaves the figure just below the line.
- Ibragimova's second sets average 8.6 games, her lowest split
- Khomutsianskaya wins 5.1 second-set games against 4.0 lost
- Neither player has played a long tiebreak-heavy run of second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pooling the two first-set averages gives a figure below the line.
- Khomutsianskaya's first sets average 8.8 games
- Ibragimova's first sets average 9.6 games with no tiebreaks in 5 matches
- First-set winners in Ibragimova's sample have won 5.2 games on average
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually settle matches inside two sets, which keeps the total close to or below the line.
- Ibragimova's hard matches average 18.2 games and none went to three sets
- Her straight-set results have totalled 17 and 20 games
- Khomutsianskaya's latest four wins were 13, 14, 18 and 18 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Straight-set finishes are the clear norm in both players' recent hard-court records.
- Ibragimova's 5 hard matches all ended in straight sets
- 11 of Khomutsianskaya's 14 hard matches finished in straight sets
- Ibragimova's average match on hard lasts 100 minutes
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The higher-ranked player has the stronger serve numbers and a slightly better opening-set record against this level of opponent.
- Ibragimova has won the opening set in 3 of her 5 hard matches
- Khomutsianskaya has won the first set in 8 of 14 hard matches
- Ibragimova wins 55.6% of first-serve points on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The ranking gap and stronger serve numbers give her a slight edge in the second set.
- Ibragimova has won the second set in 3 of 5 hard matches
- Khomutsianskaya has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard
- Ibragimova wins 43.6% of second-serve points on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent hard-court records, and the favorite has won her matches in two sets.
- 3 of Ibragimova's 5 hard matches were 2-0 wins and 2 were 0-2 losses
- 7 of Khomutsianskaya's 14 hard matches were 2-0 wins and 4 were 0-2 losses
- Ibragimova's hard matches average exactly 2.0 sets
BetBugs · Set BettinglostAlevtina Ibragimova 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sets in these matches have been decided by breaks rather than reaching six games all.
- Ibragimova's 5 hard matches produced 10 sets without a tiebreak
- Only 3 of Khomutsianskaya's 14 hard matches featured a tiebreak
- Khomutsianskaya's second sets show just one tiebreak across the whole sample
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance76%

Prediction history

Alevtina Ibragimova: 6/6 recent winner projections matched

6 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Alevtina Ibragimova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Alevtina Ibragimova6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·WTA Targu Mures

#219Alevtina Ibragimova2-1#881Maia Ilinca Burcescu

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·78%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Targu Mures

#219Alevtina Ibragimova2-1#881Maia Ilinca Burcescu

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

78%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

23 Jul·WTA Palermo

#236Alevtina Ibragimova2-0#265Alice Rame

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·62%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#236Alevtina Ibragimova2-0#265Alice Rame

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

62%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

21 Jul·WTA Palermo

#148Tamara Zidansek1-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·55%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#148Tamara Zidansek1-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

55%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Iasi

#127Dominika Salkova0-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·58%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#127Dominika Salkova0-2#275Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

58%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

12 Jul·WTA Iasi

#632Maria Kozyreva0-2#271Alevtina Ibragimova

BetBugsAlevtina Ibragimova to win·65%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#632Maria Kozyreva0-2#271Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova to win

65%probability

Alevtina Ibragimova won

Matched

Previous match context available

Alevtina Ibragimova

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#175Yeon Woo Ku 7-5 6-2#254Sara Saito 6-3 6-2#288Rina Saigo

7-5 6-4#205Rositsa Dencheva

4-6 6-2 6-3#224Alicia Herrero Linana

6-2 6-3#284Aurora Zantedeschi

7-5 6-1#146Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-2 7-6(2)#229Julie Struplova

6-4 6-3#370Mariam Bolkvadze

6-2 6-4#152Rebecca Sramkova

6-3 6-2#132Lucia Bronzetti

6-4 3-6 7-5#838Maia Ilinca Burcescu

6-3 6-4#105Francesca Jones

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#218Clara Burel

6-0 6-4#287Alice Rame

Daria Khomutsianskaya

10W 5L

6-2 6-0#744Yuhan Wang

6-4 6-2#579Ruien Zhang

6-1 6-0#773Darja Suvirdjonkova

6-1 6-1—Marianna Shikhanova

6-3 6-4#437Unknown Player

6-4 6-2#583Junhan Zhang

6-1 7-6(4)#442Chengyiyi Yuan

6-3 4-6 7-6(8)#295Yufei Ren

5-2 ret.#187Darya Astakhova

6-4 6-2#421Sijia Wei

6-2 7-5#303Kyoka Okamura

6-3 6-4#143Joanna Garland

6-1 6-4#391Sonja Zhiyenbayeva

6-4 4-6 6-3#431Tiphanie Lemaitre

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#677Yuliya Hatouka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AIAlevtina IbragimovaIbragimova

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Daria KhomutsianskayaKhomutsianskayaDK

Daria Khomutsianskaya carries the stronger recent form — Alevtina Ibragimova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In71.4%+4.6pp66.8%

1st Serve Won54.4%+8.0pp62.4%

2nd Serve Won45.1%+1.1pp44.0%

Aces / Match1.3+1.52.8

Double Faults / Match3.71.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won49.6%+1.9pp47.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted51.0%—50.4%

Break Pts Saved50.4%+6.9pp57.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.7%+1.3pp52.0%

Serve · 2–3

71.4%1st Serve In+4.6pp66.8%

54.4%1st Serve Won+8.0pp62.4%

45.1%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp44.0%

1.3Aces / Match+1.52.8

3.7Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

49.6%Return Pts Won+1.9pp47.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

51.0%Break Pts Converted—50.4%

50.4%Break Pts Saved+6.9pp57.3%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won+1.3pp52.0%

Alevtina Ibragimova

Daria Khomutsianskaya

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Daria Khomutsianskaya

Daria Khomutsianskaya 2-0

Alevtina Ibragimova

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Alevtina Ibragimova

Daria Khomutsianskaya

Stat Battle