SingaporeWTA SingaporeFinished

Predictions graded

Mei Yamaguchi #253Japan0Kyoka Okamura #307Japan2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Sun 20 Sept 2026, 06:40 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMei Yamaguchi · 54 places

Mei Yamaguchi

Japan

Yamaguchi, 27, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her career-best singles ranking is No. 242, reached on 5 May 2025.

Current ranking: #253
Peak ranking: #242 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Kyoka Okamura

Japan

Okamura, 30, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her career-best singles ranking is No. 178, reached in 2025; her recorded match volume is primarily on hard courts.

Current ranking: #307
Peak ranking: #178 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 22:19 · Europe/Bucharest

Yamaguchi is the rightful favorite over Okamura given her superior hard-court form (5-8 vs 1-10) and point-winning margins, but at 1.50 she offers no betting value.

The strongest plays are over 21.5 games, over 4.5 double faults, and under 5.5 aces, with Okamura at 2.60 a clear trap.

Context

Yamaguchi, ranked 253, and Okamura, ranked 307, are both Japanese players competing in the Singapore Open qualifying draw. Yamaguchi has a career win rate of 55.9% on hard courts, while Okamura has a 53.1% career win rate overall.
Yamaguchi's recent record is slightly better, but her 6-9 mark in the last 15 matches shows she is also far from her best. Okamura's 4-11 record is worse, and her 1-10 hard-court record in that span is a clear weakness. The match may come down to who can manage their own inconsistency better.
- Yamaguchi has a 6-9 record in her last 15 matches, including 5-8 on hard courts.
- Okamura has a 4-11 record in her last 15 matches, including 1-10 on hard courts.
- Yamaguchi's last 15 matches include a win over Ulrikke Eikeri (ranked 647) and losses to higher-ranked opponents like Polina Kudermetova (103).
- Okamura's recent wins came against lower-ranked opponents, and she has lost to several players ranked outside the top 200.
Okamura, 307th, has played most of her career on hard courts but has struggled recently on the surface. Her last 15 matches include 11 on hard courts, where she has a 1-10 record.
Okamura's hard-court numbers are stark: she has won only 38.2% of games and 41.1% of return points on the surface in this window. Yamaguchi's hard-court record is also losing (5-8), but her 48.6% games-won rate is significantly better. Unless Okamura can suddenly find form, Yamaguchi should have the edge in baseline exchanges.
- Okamura is 1-10 on hard courts in her last 15 matches, with a 38.2% games-won rate.
- Yamaguchi is 5-8 on hard courts in her last 15 matches, with a 48.6% games-won rate.
- Okamura's hard-court return points won is 41.1%, compared to Yamaguchi's 44.7%.
- Okamura has lost her last five hard-court matches, including straight-sets defeats to players ranked outside the top 200.
Both players have similar serve statistics over their last 15 matches, but Yamaguchi's first-serve points won and break-point save rate are marginally better. Okamura has a slightly higher first-serve percentage (63.1% vs 61.6%) but wins fewer points on it.
Yamaguchi's ability to win more points on her first serve gives her a slight advantage in holding serve. Okamura's higher double-fault rate (3.1 per match vs 2.9) adds pressure to her service games. In a match where both players struggle for form, serve consistency could tip the balance.
- Yamaguchi wins 58.6% of first-serve points; Okamura wins 55.5%.
- Yamaguchi saves 47.9% of break points; Okamura saves 47.1%.
- Okamura averages 3.1 double faults per match; Yamaguchi averages 2.9.
- Okamura's first-serve percentage is 63.1%, slightly higher than Yamaguchi's 61.6%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Mei Yamaguchi

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Yamaguchi's hard-court form and total-points-won edge over Okamura are real but not large enough to justify a 1.50 price, making this a fair-to-slightly-negative quote rather than a value edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both players are in poor form, but Yamaguchi's hard-court last-15 (5-8) and total-points-won (49.6% vs 45.3%) clearly outpace Okamura's 1-10 hard record, giving her the structural and form edge in this Bo3 qualifier.
- Yamaguchi last-15 record 6-15 (40%) vs Okamura 4-15 (26.7%), both windows fully tracked (15 matches)
- Hard-court last-15: Yamaguchi 5-8 (38.5%) vs Okamura 1-10 (9.1%) — Okamura has lost 10 of 11 recent hard matches
- Yamaguchi won her most recent match 6-1 6-4 (Sep 19, 2026, I.hard) while Okamura also won 7-6(2) 6-3 same day, but Okamura's prior 10 hard matches were all losses
- Ranking edge: Yamaguchi 253 vs Okamura 307; career hard wins 155 vs 290 but recent window favors Yamaguchi
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMei YamaguchiEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Weak hold games on both sides (sub-50% BP save rates) plus a history of three-set, tiebreak-heavy matches in the recent window make a high game total the most reliable structural read.
- Yamaguchi last-15 average match duration 110.8 minutes; Okamura 110.4 minutes — both long, grinding profiles
- Yamaguchi recent matches include 4-6 7-6(7) 6-1 and 3-6 6-1 6-0 three-setters (Sep 2026)
- Okamura recent matches include 4-6 6-4 7-6(3) and 6-1 3-6 6-4 three-setters (Jun 2026)
- Both players' break-point save rates are sub-50% (Yamaguchi 47.9%, Okamura 47.1%), pointing to frequent breaks and longer sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Okamura's chronic slow starts on hard courts (19.2% recent set win rate) make Yamaguchi the modest favorite to take the opening set, though both players' volatility keeps confidence low.
- Yamaguchi last-15 first-set conversion context: 84% career firstSetWinConversion, 6 wins in 15 recent matches
- Okamura lost the opening set in 8 of her last 10 hard-court matches (recent form, Jun-Sep 2026)
- Okamura's recent hard-court sets won: 19.2% (5/26) over last 15 window
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMei YamaguchiEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Okamura's very low recent hard-court set win rate and tendency to fade after competitive opening sets make Yamaguchi the slight favorite for set two.
- Yamaguchi's recent straight-set wins show strong second-set closing (6-4, 6-1, 6-2 in Sep 2026)
- Okamura's recent hard-court sets won rate is only 19.2% (5/26) over the last 15 window
- Okamura has frequently faded in second sets (e.g. 6-3 6-2, 6-1 6-4 losses in Jul 2026)
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMei YamaguchiEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are low-ace servers with recent per-match ace rates around 1-1.5, making an under on the combined ace line the strongest serve-profile read.
- Yamaguchi last-15 aces per match: 1.0 (15 aces in 15 matches, fully tracked)
- Okamura last-15 aces per match: 1.5 (23 in 15 matches); hard-court 1.5 per match
- Career aces: Yamaguchi 355 in 435 matches, Okamura 789 in 737 matches — both low ace rates
- Combined recent average is roughly 2.5 aces per match, well below the 5.5 line
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players carry high double-fault rates in the recent window (2.9 and 3.1 per match), so the combined total should comfortably clear 4.5.
- Yamaguchi last-15 double faults per match: 2.9 (43 in 15 matches); hard-court 2.7
- Okamura last-15 double faults per match: 3.1 (47 in 15 matches); hard-court 3.8
- Combined recent average is approximately 6.0 double faults per match
- Career double faults: Yamaguchi 959 in 435 matches, Okamura 1781 in 737 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frequent tiebreaks in both recent windows plus weak hold games make at least one tiebreak in the match a slightly better-than-even proposition.
- Yamaguchi's recent matches include tiebreaks in 4 of her last 15 (e.g. 7-6(6), 7-6(7), 7-6(3))
- Okamura's recent matches include tiebreaks in 3 of her last 15 (e.g. 7-6(2), 7-6(3))
- Both players' career tiebreak win rates are near even (Yamaguchi 47%, Okamura 46%), indicating frequent close sets
- Sub-50% break-point save rates on both sides increase the likelihood of tight, tiebreak-bound sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Mei Yamaguchi

6W 9L

6-1 6-4#647Ulrikke Eikeri

4-6 7-6(7) 6-1#444Tahlia Kokkinis

3-6 6-1 6-0#226Zhuoxuan Bai

6-2 6-1#270Dayeon Back

7-6(6) 6-4#103Polina Kudermetova

5-7 6-3 6-2#408Reina Goto

7-5 7-6(7)#618Rebecca Marino

7-5 6-3#209Greetje Minnen

6-4 6-4#322Ena Koike

6-2 7-6(3)#241Whitney Osuigwe

6-3 7-6(6)#303Zongyu Li

7-5 6-2#594Junhan Zhang

4-6 6-2 6-3#371Eunhye Lee

6-3 6-3#392Yidi Yang

6-3 7-6(3)#490Erika Sema

Kyoka Okamura

4W 11L

7-6(2) 6-3#872Eva Marie Desvignes

6-2 7-5#276Daria Khomutsianskaya

6-3 6-2#409Kristiana Sidorova

6-1 6-4#210Hayu Kinoshita

7-5 6-1#136Carol Young Suh Lee

6-2 6-1#61Lanlana Tararudee

6-3 6-1#143Susan Bandecchi

7-5 6-1#358Hiromi Abe

4-6 6-3 6-2#347Varvara Panshina

6-1 3-6 6-4#358Hiromi Abe

4-6 6-4 7-6(3)#867Yanan Hou

4-6 6-4 6-3#248Valentina Ryser

7-5 6-1#187Katie Swan

6-3 6-2#368Momoko Kobori

6-3 6-3#475Mio Mushika

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MYMei YamaguchiYamaguchi

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Kyoka OkamuraOkamuraKO

Mei Yamaguchi carries the stronger recent form — Kyoka Okamura's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.6%+1.5pp63.1%

1st Serve Won58.6%+3.1pp55.5%

2nd Serve Won46.2%+1.7pp44.5%

Aces / Match1.0+0.51.5

Double Faults / Match2.9—3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.8%+2.5pp43.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.4%+7.4pp43.0%

Break Pts Saved47.9%+0.8pp47.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.9%+2.7pp47.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.6%1st Serve In+1.5pp63.1%

58.6%1st Serve Won+3.1pp55.5%

46.2%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp44.5%

1.0Aces / Match+0.51.5

2.9Double Faults / Match—3.1

Return · 1–0

45.8%Return Pts Won+2.5pp43.3%

Pressure · 2–0

50.4%Break Pts Converted+7.4pp43.0%

47.9%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp47.1%

Points · 1–0

49.9%Total Pts Won+2.7pp47.2%