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Predictions graded

Alevtina Ibragimova #236Russia2Alice Rame #265France0

Sets 6-0 · 6-4Thu 23 Jul 2026, 16:35 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–443%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlevtina Ibragimova · 29 places

Alevtina Ibragimova

Russia

Reached her WTA main-draw debut in Iasi in July 2026 and pushed Paula Badosa to a deciding set there. Her ranking moved to a career-high No. 236 in July 2026. Public profile data for this search points to clay as her best-fit surface.

Current ranking: #236
Peak ranking: #236 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Alice Rame

France

Reached the Rio de Janeiro WTA 125 final in 2025. Official WTA profile lists her at No. 265 with a career high of No. 191. Public profile data available for this search labels hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #265
Peak ranking: #191 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 15:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Ibragimova’s superior recent form (11-4 last 15) and strong clay return game make her the clear favorite against an inconsistent Rame.

The best value is over 20.5 total games, given both players’ tendency for extended sets and high double-fault counts. A straight-sets win for Ibragimova is the most probable outcome, with the 2-0 set betting offering a solid edge.

Context

Ibragimova's last-15 clay record is 11-4 (73.3%), with wins over top-150 opponents like Zidansek and Salkova.
- She pushed world No. 93 Paula Badosa to three sets in Iasi last week, showing she can compete at a higher level.
- Her return points won on clay is 53.6%, creating frequent break chances.
Rame's last-15 clay record is 5-9 (35.7%), with seven of those nine losses in straight sets.
- Her best recent win was over No. 259 Anastasia Tikhonova; she lost to players ranked outside the top 250 like Laura Mair and Diletta Cherubini.
- Rame wins only 44% of return points on clay, limiting her ability to pressure opponents' serves.
Ibragimova's first-round match lasted 2 hours and 28 minutes, compared to Rame's 1 hour and 10 minutes.
- Both players had the same two-day turnaround, but Ibragimova's workload was heavier.
- Ibragimova has shown good stamina, winning multiple three-setters in recent weeks without a drop in performance.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Ibragimova's superior recent form (11-4 last15, 73.3%) and strong clay performance, including a top-150 win this week, give her a clear edge over Rame's 33.3% win rate and struggles against higher-ranked opponents.
- Ibragimova's last15 overall record is 11-4 (73.3%) vs Rame's 5-10 (33.3%).
- On clay last15, Ibragimova holds a 73.3% win rate (11-4) while Rame is 5-9 (35.7%).
- Ibragimova's recent form includes a win over #134 Zidansek and a tight loss to #93 Badosa; Rame's best recent win is over #259 Tikhonova.
- H2H: Rame won their only meeting 6-1 6-3 in 2024, but Ibragimova's current level appears significantly higher.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.00
The read
With Ibragimova's matches averaging over 20 games and both players capable of tight sets, the total games line of 20.5 is likely to be surpassed.
- Ibragimova's last15 matches average 20.6 games per match (309 games/15 matches).
- Rame's last15 matches average 19.1 games, but her clay matches average 18.4; however, Ibragimova's matches often go longer against quality opponents.
- Both players have shown they can extend sets: Ibragimova played a 29-game match vs Badosa, Rame a 29-game match vs Werner.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Ibragimova's average first-set length of 9.1 games and Rame's ability to push sets deep, over 8.5 games in set 1 is a reasonable expectation.
- Ibragimova's last15 first sets average 9.1 games (136 games/15 matches).
- Rame's last15 first sets average 8.5 games, but 7 of her last 15 first sets have had 9+ games.
- In their only H2H, the first set had 7 games, but current form suggests a more competitive start.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ibragimova's superior game-winning percentage (57.6% on clay) and average margin of victory suggest she can cover a -3.5 game handicap against Rame.
- Ibragimova's average games won per match in last15 is 11.9 vs Rame's 8.6.
- On clay last15, Ibragimova wins 57.6% of games vs Rame's 45.3%.
- Ibragimova has covered a -3.5 game handicap in 9 of her last 15 wins (60%).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlevtina Ibragimova -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Ibragimova's tendency to start fast (67% first-set wins in last15) contrasts with Rame's frequent slow starts (60% first-set losses), making Ibragimova likely to take the opener.
- Ibragimova has won the first set in 10 of her last 15 matches (67%), including against Badosa and Zidansek.
- Rame has lost the first set in 9 of her last 15 matches (60%), often against lower-ranked players.
- Ibragimova's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlevtina IbragimovaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
With a combined double fault average of 6.5 and both players prone to errors on serve, over 5.5 double faults is a strong probability.
- Ibragimova averages 3.9 double faults per match in last15, Rame 2.6.
- Combined average is 6.5 double faults per match.
- On clay, Ibragimova's double fault rate is 3.9, Rame's is 2.8, totaling 6.7.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average barely exceeds 2.5, and with both players not being big servers, over 2.5 aces is a marginal call with low confidence.
- Ibragimova averages 1.9 aces per match in last15, Rame 0.7.
- Combined average is 2.6 aces per match, but Rame's low ace count (0.7) drags the total down.
- On clay, Ibragimova's ace rate is similar (1.9), Rame's is 0.7.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-1 6-3Alevtina Ibragimova#236vAlice Rame#265May 28, 2024

1 total meetings

Alevtina Ibragimova

11W 4L

3-6 6-4 6-3#134Tamara Zidansek

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#93Paula Badosa Gibert

6-2 7-5#127Dominika Salkova

6-3 6-4#175Varvara Lepchenko

6-2 6-0#619Maria Kozyreva

6-3 7-5#235Francesca Curmi

7-5 6-2#425Lucie Nguyen Tan

6-2 6-0#414Amandine Hesse

6-3 6-2#320Mina Hodzic

4-6 6-3 6-3#372Margaux Rouvroy

6-2 6-1#461Clara Burel

7-6(6) 6-3#620Berta Bonardi

6-2 4-6 6-2#448Denislava Glushkova

6-1 6-3#154Lola Radivojevic

6-1 7-5#465Zhibek Kulambayeva

Alice Rame

5W 10L

6-1 6-2#259Anastasia Tikhonova

6-1 7-5#144Noma Akugue Noha

6-2 7-5#113Francesca Jones

6-3 5-7 6-2#258Caroline Werner

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#412Laura Mair

6-2 6-3#381Diletta Cherubini

6-2 6-4#557Emily Seibold

6-0 6-3#22Maja Chwalinska

6-4 6-1#295Anouck Vrancken Peeters

2-6 6-1 6-3#114Claire Liu

6-2 6-2#84Maria Timofeeva

6-4 6-4#289Kathinka Von Deichmann

4-1 ret.#281Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 7-5—Noelia Manta

2-6 7-5 6-1#114Claire Liu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AIAlevtina IbragimovaIbragimova

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Alice RameRameAR

Alevtina Ibragimova carries the stronger recent form — Alice Rame's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In68.5%+6.9pp61.6%

1st Serve Won57.8%+0.9pp58.7%

2nd Serve Won43.6%—43.5%

Aces / Match1.9+1.20.7

Double Faults / Match3.91.3 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won53.6%+9.6pp44.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted57.6%+12.5pp45.1%

Break Pts Saved54.1%+7.1pp47.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.4%+5.1pp48.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

68.5%1st Serve In+6.9pp61.6%

57.8%1st Serve Won+0.9pp58.7%

43.6%2nd Serve Won—43.5%

1.9Aces / Match+1.20.7

3.9Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

53.6%Return Pts Won+9.6pp44.0%

Pressure · 2–0

57.6%Break Pts Converted+12.5pp45.1%

54.1%Break Pts Saved+7.1pp47.0%

Points · 1–0

53.4%Total Pts Won+5.1pp48.3%

Alevtina Ibragimova #236Russia2Alice Rame #265France0

Player Profiles

Alevtina Ibragimova

Alice Rame

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alevtina Ibragimova 2-0

Over 20.5

Over 5.5

Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova

Alevtina Ibragimova -3.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Alice Rame +3.5 @ 2.38

Alevtina Ibragimova @ 1.35

Alice Rame 2-1 @ 7.50

Head-to-Head

Alevtina Ibragimova

Alice Rame

Stat Battle