Daniil Medvedev #6Russia22 – 0Andrey Rublev #18Russia0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Medvedev's higher ranking and strong head-to-head record give him the better chance, though Rublev's recent hard-court form is competitive.

• Medvedev leads the head-to-head 4-2 and has won the last three meetings
• Medvedev is ranked No. 6, Rublev No. 24
• Medvedev has won 5 of 7 first sets in recent hard-court best-of-3 matches; Rublev 3 of 6
• Rublev has a higher second-serve points won on hard (50.2% to 47.8%)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

First sets on this surface have consistently gone beyond nine games for both players.

• Medvedev's recent hard best-of-3 first sets average 11.1 games
• Rublev's average 11.5 games
• Medvedev has two first-set tiebreaks in seven matches; Rublev has three in six

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75

The read

Medvedev has won by at least three games in every recent victory and in all his head-to-head wins.

• Medvedev covered -2.5 in all three Hangzhou matches
• Medvedev covered -2.5 in all four head-to-head wins
• Medvedev's two head-to-head losses were by 2 and 3 games

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Medvedev's second sets tend to be longer, while Rublev has had some quick second sets, making the over modestly favored.

• Medvedev's recent hard best-of-3 second sets average 11.3 games
• Rublev's second sets average 9.3 games
• Rublev has won second sets 6-1 and 6-3 in Hangzhou

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Rublev has kept matches close against Medvedev in the past, and Medvedev's recent winning margins have been modest.

• Medvedev covered -4.5 in only one of three Hangzhou matches
• Rublev's recent hard-court margins were +6, +5, +6
• Rublev's head-to-head losses were by 3 and 2 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Medvedev has won by four or more games in his last three matches and in all his head-to-head wins.

• Medvedev covered -3.5 in all three Hangzhou matches
• Medvedev's head-to-head wins were by +6, +7, +8, +10 games
• Medvedev's head-to-head losses were by 3 and 2 games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Medvedev has started strongly on this surface and has a perfect first-set record against Rublev.

• Medvedev won the first set in 5 of 7 recent hard best-of-3 matches
• Rublev won the first set in 3 of 6
• Medvedev won the first set in all six head-to-head meetings
• Medvedev won the first set in all three Hangzhou matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Straight-set finishes have been more common in their recent hard-court matches.

• Combined recent best-of-3 hard matches: 9 of 13 ended in straight sets
• Medvedev's three Hangzhou wins included two straight-set victories
• Rublev's three Hangzhou wins included two straight-set victories

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The line is set very close to their combined average, and shorter matches tend to produce fewer aces.

• Medvedev's hard-court ace rate is 12.9% of service points
• Rublev's is 11.9%
• Combined recent average is 21.8, just above the line

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined average is near the line, but Rublev's low rate and the best-of-3 format could keep it under.

• Rublev averages only 3.5 double faults per match on hard
• Medvedev averages 5.5
• Combined average is 9.0